July 12, 2023
While the Phillies are 89 games into their season and have played over 50 percent of their games this year, the All-Star Break ultimately works as the demarcation line between the first and second halves of the MLB campaign. Heading into late summer and the fall, the Phillies stand at 48-41. That puts them third in the National League East race (12 games behind a dominant Atlanta team...) and a half-game out of the final NL Wild Card spot.
What are this team's odds of bringing another Red October to Philadelphia?
Looking over at FanGraphs' playoff odds, the platform gives the Phillies a projected win total of "86.5" with a 54.9 percent chance of reaching the postseason (0.4 percent to win the division, 54.5 percent to grab a Wild Card berth). That's the third-best shot in the division for FanGraphs' projections. Atlanta is firmly at a 100.0 percent chance of playing postseason baseball and the Marlins team that just took two out of three from the Fightins has a 74.0 percent chance.
On a bigger scale, FanGraphs has the Phillies with a 3.4 percent chance of winning the World Series, just ahead of Miami at 3.3 percent and way behind Atlanta at 24.2 percent.
Taking a peek at baseball-reference's own playoff odds, b-ref is a little lower on the Phillies. They give the Phils a 49.7 percent chance of making the postseason with their only shot of doing so through a Wild Card berth (both logically and numerically backed up). B-ref also lists their most likely 2023 playoff scenarios and that has the Phillies on the outside looking in, as the site has Miami, Arizona and San Francisco all in as the three NL Wild Card teams.
Baseball-reference gives round-by-round playoffs odds, too. They have the Phillies pegged with a 25.2 percent chance of reaching the NLDS, a 10.1 chance of reaching the NLCS, a 4.0 chance of winning the pennant and a 1.3 percent chance of winning the World Series outright.
Those numbers don't sound great, but Phillies fans need only to look to last fall to remember the unpredictable nature of playoff baseball once we reach the actual postseason.
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