November 12, 2026
Geoff Burke/IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Jayden Daniels and the Commanders are better than the Giants.
For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 10 NFL picks. The team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Commanders at Giants (-2.5): If the Giants are able to beat the Commanders they'll be 6-2-1 with a 3-0-1 record in the NFC East. They will have a commanding lead in the division.
Still, they are not a good team. And yet, per Jordan Raanan, they reportedly tried to go big at the trade deadline, even inquiring about Falcons star RB Bijan Robinson.
Ultimately, they failed to close any notable deals. Personally, I think the Commanders are better, and this feels like a matchup where the Giants blow a big opportunity.
Patriots at Lions (-2.5), in Munich: The Lions' offense has cooled off a bit of late, but their defense has played a lot better after a shaky start. Meanwhile, the Patriots have been inconsistent, and they have played poorly against the good teams on their schedule.
Bills (-7.5) at Jets: The Bills have probably been the best team in the NFL through the first half of the season, while the Jets are, you know, the Jets.
The Bills swept the Jets in 2024 and 2025 by a combined score of 128-52.
Jaguars (-10.5) at Titans: The Jaguars made some insanely stupid trades at the deadline, but in the short term they became a better team. To some degree I do respect that they're going for it, even if they've screwed up their future.
Dolphins at Colts (-3.5): This is a huge game for the Eagles and their positioning in the 2027 draft.
Chiefs (-3.5) at Falcons: The Chiefs got right against the Jets after a pair of road losses to the Seahawks and Broncos. They can handle bad teams like the Falcons.
Texans (-4.5) at Browns: After an 0-4 start that Texans have won three of four and have a chance to contend for a wildcard. I like their defense's chances against Deshaun Watson.
Panthers at Saints (-2): After their win over the Eagles almost a month ago, the Panthers have lost three straight and their defense has looked awful. The Saints can at least score on this team.
Vikings at Packers (-3): The Vikings traded for Kirk Cousins at the deadline, and he will step right into the starting lineup. He'll be better than Carson Wentz and Kyler Murray, but, I mean, he's still not good enough to make this team legitimate Super Bowl contenders.
Seahawks (-6.5) at Raiders: Fernando Mendoza will get his first NFL start on Sunday. Having that come against this Seahawks defense is kinda brutal.
Rams (-9.5) at Cardinals: The Cardinals already beat the Rams this season, so I wouldn't consider this a gimme. But certainly the Rams are the easy pick here.
49ers (-3.5) at Cowboys: The 49ers have been a nemesis for the Cowboys. The Cowboys have lost four straight in this rivalry, including two playoff losses during which the Niners were able to frustrate Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense. During that four-game losing streak the Cowboys have scored just 15.8 points per game against the Niners.
Steelers at Bengals (-3.5): The Bengals are a poverty franchise that doesn't know how compensatory picks work. But, they do have Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins, and that's enough to beat the Steelers.
Chargers at Ravens (-4.5): Jacoby Brissett will start for the Ravens after they traded for him at the deadline. I think this is a spot where the Chargers can get their first win, with no confidence whatsoever.
BYE: Eagles, Buccaneers, Bears, Broncos
2633 🎉🍾
• Last 11 seasons, ATS: 474-395-23 (0.544)
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