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November 15, 2018

Week 11 NFL picks

For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 11 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.


Packers at Seahawks (-3): Going out to Seattle on a short week isn't easy, and the Seahawks have been somewhat better than expected this season. Four of their losses have come to the Rams (twice), Chargers, and Bears. Otherwise, they've mostly handled their lesser opponents, which is what I think the Packers are.


Bengals at Ravens (no line): I guess there's no line for this game because it's unknown if Joe Flacco will start? Are we sure a switch from Flacco to Lamar Jackson is even a downgrade?


Panthers (-4) at Lions: The Panthers (Cam Newton aside) are frauds, but they're certainly better than the reeling Lions.


Titans at Colts (-2): Having Josh McDaniels back out on the Colts' head coaching job was the best thing that could have happened for Indy, as Frank Reich is proving to be an excellent hire. It's also perhaps one of the worst things that could have happened to the Eagles, it seems.


Cowboys at Falcons (-3.5): This is the usual part of the season where the Cowboys win a couple of games, get the fan base excited, and then they crap the bed. 


Buccaneers at Giants (-1.5): Wait, so Vegas is still making the Giants favorites over teams? 


Texans (-3) at Redskins: The Redskins looked bad across the board last weekend against the Bucs, but were beneficiaries of an even worse Tampa team continuously shooting themselves in the foot. Their offensive line injuries and recently bad defense are too much to overcome.


Steelers (-5.5) at Jaguars: The Jags owned Pittsburgh last season, but 2018 will be a different story. Jacksonville has lost five straight and are in a complete free-fall. This is a tasty revenge game for the Steelers.


Broncos at Chargers (-7): I don't normally like laying seven, but this game is tempting, as the Chargers have won six straight with a margin of victory of more than seven in four of those games. Meanwhile, the Broncos stink, as they have lost six of their last seven.


Raiders at Cardinals (-5.5): Oakland is currently in the driver's seat for the No. 1 overall pick after the Giants' win on Monday night. I imagine they'll stay there the rest of the way.


Eagles at Saints (-8.5): This game feels like an easy call, so we won't bother diving too deep. The Saints have the most efficient passing offense in the NFL behind MVP candidate Drew Brees, to go along with a very good rushing attack. The Eagles, meanwhile, will likely be missing three starters in their secondary, including both outside corners. 

This game marks the first time the Eagles will be underdogs all season long, sooooooooo, break out the dog masks? I don't think that'll help this year.


Vikings at Bears (-3): The Bears have yet to beat a team with a winning record all season, and the teams they have beaten have a combined record of 18-38. I think I just trust Minny more than the up-and-coming Bears in big games. 


Chiefs at Rams (-3.5): What a great Monday night game. I'm taking the Chiefs solely on the premise that I hope Andy Reid gets his Super Bowl.

Byes: Bills, Browns, Dolphins, Patri*ts, Jets, 49ers.

• Picks against the spread: Cowboys (+3.5), Buccaneers (+1.5), Steelers (-5.5), Vikings (+3), Chiefs (+3.5).

• Eagles picks: 4-5

• 2018 season, straight up 92-55-2 (0.624)
• 2018 season, ATS: 24-19-1 (.557)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS:  41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)

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