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October 12, 2017

Week 6 NFL picks

Eagles NFL

For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 6 NFL picks. To note, the helmets indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.

Eagles at Panthers (-3.5): The Eagles can win this game. #Analysis. But they probably won't. The Panthers look closer to the dominant team they were in 2015 when they went to the Super Bowl than the disappointment they were in 2016 when they went 6-10. Going on the road on a short week to play a really good team on Thursday night is a tall order. I think the Eagles will play tough and give Carolina a game, but they fall short. 23-21.

Dolphins at Falcons (-11): Next.

Bears at Ravens (-7): The Ravens took a beating in London by the Jaguars, but were able to rally with a nice win in Oakland. Ultimately, this is a well-coached team that lacks a lot of high-end talent, but will generally beat bad teams, which is exactly what the Bears are.

Browns at Texans (-9.5): The Browns are still the worst team in the NFL, and dumb for (essentially) trading Carson Wentz.

Packers (-3) at Vikings: Watching poor Sammy Sleeves hobble around Monday night was uncomfortable, but the Vikings were able to pick up the win with Case Keenum. At this point, the Vikings are probably better off with Keenum in there, as Bradford clearly doesn't trust his knee. This line feels like a gift from the betting gods. 

Lions at Saints (-4.5): The Saints are either going to be facing a banged-up Matthew Stafford, or a backup in Jake Rudock, who has never thrown a pass in an NFL game. Either way, I'll take the Saints to outscore the Lions.

Patriots (-9.5) at Jets: These games were more fun when Rex Ryan would run his mouth all week despite having a far less accomplished resume than his opponent.

49ers at Redskins (-9.5): Kirk Cousins gets a sneak preview of his new team in 2018, and should be amply motivated to play well and maximize his pay in front of his potential new employers.

Buccaneers (-2.5) at Cardinals: You all saw this Cardinals team last week, right? 

Rams at Jaguars (-2.5): Sometimes the Jaguars show up on Sunday and they look great. Other times, they look like the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Rams, meanwhile, have played good football on a more consistent week-to-week basis.

Steelers at Chiefs (-4): I'm not sure why this line is only four. The Chiefs are a much better team than the Steelers, whose body of work this season is not at all impressive.

Chargers at Raiders (-3): The Raiders are in the midst of a three-game losing streak, and Derek Carr is rushing back from a back injury to try to save the day. I don't think that'll end well.

Giants at Broncos (-12): The Giants are indeed a complete and total dumpster fire.

Colts at Titans (no line): Marcus Mariota is expected to play in this game, and Andrew Luck is not, which makes this a pretty easy decision. How many people are actually going to watch this?

• Picks against the spread: Eagles (+3.5), Packers (-3), Rams (+2.5), Chargers (+3)
• 2017 season, straight up: 48-29 (.623)
• 2017 season, ATS: 12-8 (.600)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (.644)
• 2016 season, ATS:  41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)

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