December 21, 2025
Mickey Welsh/Imagn Images
From rising hot chocolate prices to declining reindeer populations, climate change is taking a toll on Christmas classics.
As snowflakes fall lazily from the sky, you cozy up by the fireplace and take a sip from a steaming cup of hot chocolate, humming the jaunty songs you can't seem to get out of your head the entire month of December.
But as temperatures rise, this quintessential winter holiday scene is transforming (in the Northern Hemisphere at least). The snowstorm you were picturing is actually more likely to be a chilly rain in many areas. Cocoa crops around the world are failing, making chocolate drinks and desserts increasingly expensive. Global warming is even coming for Rudolph, recent research shows.
Climate change is threatening Christmas and winter traditions – and in some cases, holiday trends are fueling it.
Holiday spirit in December is underpinned by a multitude of global supply chains churning throughout the year. And I'm not just talking about markets that support presents like clothes and electronics; many of the most lucrative Christmas commodities are grown.
Take chocolate: As many as 6 million small-holder farmers in Africa, Asia and Latin America grow and harvest 90 percent of the world's cocoa, which go into all sorts of holiday classics – from yule log cakes to marshmallow-topped cocoa. Cacao, the plant that is processed to make cocoa, thrives in tropical climates with warm temperatures and abundant rainfall. But in 2023 and 2024, the weather was too warm and wet – then too dry – in African countries like Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana for healthy cacao crops. Yields plummeted to record lows.
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This extreme weather was caused partially by the El Niño weather pattern. But an analysis by the nonprofit Climate Central found that human-caused climate change added six weeks' worth of days above 89 degrees Fahrenheit in 71 percent of cacao-producing areas across much of West Africa in 2024. The low output led to staggeringly high chocolate prices around the world, surging from about $2,500 to more than $10,000 per metric ton that year.
Though prices have since fallen a bit, scientists at Harvard University say this cocoa volatility likely represents a "new normal." Unpredictable weather is affecting other holiday baking necessities like sugarcane and cinnamon crops – both essential for any snickerdoodle fan.
Long-term temperature rise and compounding weather disasters are also hurting the most iconic holiday crop: Christmas trees. As I reported in January, Oregon and North Carolina produce the most Christmas trees in the United States, but warmer winters and longer growing seasons are leading to stunted growth and a surge in pest outbreaks that can decimate supplies.
"When we grow Christmas trees, we typically are taking them out of their natural habitat, particularly with Fraser fir," Justin Whitehill, a forestry researcher at North Carolina State University who studies Christmas trees, told me a year ago.
"Taking them out of their sort of natural range, we're already putting a lot of stress on them," and climate-fueled warming only adds to that, he added. Whitehill and other scientists – including an entire Christmas tree program at Oregon State University – are experimenting with new breeds or genetic modifications to help make the trees more resistant to pests and heat.
Pro tip: Researchers also told me that once the holiday season is over, you can donate your natural Christmas tree (after you've removed the ornaments and tinsel) to wildlife agencies around the country. They use them to help provide crucial habitats for freshwater fish.
The subjects of some of the most famous Christmas carols are also at risk as global temperatures rise. Reindeer – also known as caribou in North America – face over a 50 percent decline by the end of the century due to climate-fueled habitat loss and overheating, according to a study published in August.
These antlered creatures thrive in Arctic habitats such as tundra and boreal forests, where they help maintain vegetation and plant diversity. Using fossils and ancient DNA, researchers simulated how warming events over the past 21,000 years affected reindeer populations to help predict how they will do in the future under different warming scenarios.
They found that modern-day rates of temperature rise could decimate reindeer populations more than any of those in the past.
"Continued losses will likely further exacerbate climatic warming through release of soil carbon to the atmosphere, which, of course, would further threaten reindeer and caribou, as well as ourselves," study co-author Eric Post, a professor at the University of California, Davis, said in a statement. "For thousands of years, the well-being of our own species has benefited directly from healthy reindeer and caribou populations. Now more than ever, we need to ensure their well-being in turn."
Meanwhile, Frosty the Snowman and the white Christmas you may be dreaming of are also disappearing amid rapid warming. The chances of having at least one inch of snow on Christmas Day – the metric for what the National Weather Service deems a "white Christmas" – are "gradually decreasing across the Southern United States, and this trend is slowly moving north," according to the federal government. It's important to note that snow was never that common on Christmas Day for many states, Time magazine reports.
"People tend to remember that one snowy Christmas, and they forget that it was surrounded by five Christmases that weren't," David Robinson, New Jersey's state climatologist and a Rutgers University professor whose research focuses on snow cover, told Time.
But records reveal a clear trend of warming winters overall, with average temperatures rising nearly 4 degrees Fahrenheit in almost 250 U.S. cities since 1970, according to an analysis of federal data by Climate Central. Holiday shopping may be accelerating this trend, with millions of emissions generated each year due to product manufacturing, packaging, shipping and waste.
It doesn't end there: Roughly 15 percent of purchases made during the holiday season are returned. I reported on this "reverse supply chain" last year and was shocked to learn how returns' carbon pollution compares to that of the initial deliveries.
As we enter the last-minute scramble to purchase gifts, environmentalists are urging consumers to reduce their impact by finding lower-waste options. Shopping local, buying secondhand or even giving experiences instead can help.
