July 21, 2015
Taking whatever the Phillies can get for Cole Hamels is patently absurd.
But that’s what a veteran Philadelphia sports columnist opined last week. Yes, it’s much more difficult churning out Phillies copy than it was four years ago, but the notion that the Ruben Amaro and Co. should settle for anything less than a top prospect for Hamels is inane.
Dealing Hamels for whatever the beleaguered club can score is quintessential Philadelphia sports talk radio fodder. But the Phillies brain trust can’t give away the best homegrown pitcher since Robin Roberts. Hamels is still a certifiable ace, who can help a contender win any game.
If the best the Phillies can garner is akin to the ill-fated Cliff Lee trade, well, the club has to hold on to Hamels and try again in the off-season. That’s so even with the number of high-profile free agent hurlers, who will enter the market and the possibility of Hamels dropping an echelon due to injury or ineffectiveness.
The Lee deal, which still hangs over William Penn’s head like a mushroom cloud, can’t be repeated. When looking back at that transaction, it appeared that Amaro took whatever he could get. Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies and J.C. Ramirez for Lee, who was at his peak, will go down as one of the worst trades in Phillies history.
“He’s an ace. Aces don’t grow on trees. I guarantee you that any team would love to have him. I understand it if the Phillies trade him. They traded me. That’s the business side of things. But I think it’ll take a lot to get him. I would ask for a lot for Cole," Hunter Pence said.
Lee wasn’t asking out of Philadelphia. The gifted and gutsy ace wanted to sign an extension with Philadelphia, which he eventually did ink. Can you imagine the outcome of the 2010 NLCS against San Francisco if the Phillies had Lee, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Hamels? The odds of reaching a third straight World Series would have been exponentially higher with Lee as part of that staff.
Much like Lee, Hamels does not have a gun to Amaro’s head. Hamels isn’t begging to leave town. The right deal must be struck or there should be no trade.
“90 percent of all prospects don’t pan out,” an NL scout recently told me when I asked him about the Hamels deal. “The Phillies would be repeating history if they were crazy enough to trade Hamels for so-so prospects.”
The scout was referring to the Hunter Pence deal. The biggest mistake Amaro made as GM wasn’t the Ryan Howard and Jonathan Papelbon deals. It was giving up so much for Pence and trading him for next to nothing that helped send the Phillies off a cliff.
Pence has won two World Series rings with the Giants. He's helping the oft-injured Giants to somehow hang with the Dodgers this season. There would be no joy for Phillies fans watching Hamels win a World Series with Jimmy Rollins or with the Cardinals unless the club receives a significant return.
No team will replicate the Rangers trade of Mark Teixeria for Braves’ prospects Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison and Jarrod Saltalamacchia in 2008.
Organizations are doing all that they can to hold on to their precious prospects. The Red Sox refused to even consider dealing any of their top tier farmhands for Hamels before the season started even though Boston desperately needed an ace/any competent starter.
But prospects can still be had if a team would like to solidify its rotation. Cubs GM Theo Epstein expertly reeled in Addison Russell from the A’s for two months of Jeff Samardzija last season.
Russell, who is only 21, was MLB's fifth rated prospect when he was dealt. The Cubs picked up a key piece that should be an integral part of their franchise for the next dozen years. Russell, who was called up in April, is struggling offensively but is already one of the best fielding second basemen in the majors.
Hamels has a much better pedigree than Samardzija, not to mention a longer and favorable contract. Samardzija’s numbers are just a bit better than pedestrian. Hamels stats and history scream “pure ace,” who has been very good in the postseason. The 2008 NLCS MVP and the 2008 World Series MVP could help any contender.
His two recent poor starts will not impact his enviable stature. The San Diego native is a difference maker and there are trading partners, who could use him and easily absorb his contract, which is one of baseball’s great bargains.
To put it in perspective, Rick Porcello, who has been woeful for the Red Sox (5-10, 5.79 ERA, 1.410 WHIP) after signing a mega-deal in April, makes just $2 million less per season than Hamels for the balance of his massive contract.
There was a time when Hamels would not have returned to Southern California.
“I only want to pitch in the Northeast, if I had my choice,” Hamels told me in 2009 for a Maxim feature. “I love the passion and intensity here (Philadelphia). The fans here know and love the game. Even though I admired (Padres) Trevor Hoffman and Tony Gwynn, I liked going to Dodger Stadium when I was growing up but that still isn’t anything like what you experience on the East Coast.”
Hamels waxed about how supportive the Phillies fans were during the team’s golden run and how Dodger fans leave their jewel of a park early to beat traffic. “I never understood that,” Hamels said.
But the Dodgers would make for an excellent fit for Hamels. Don Mattingly’s club can’t shake the Pence-led Giants, who lost considerable punch when Pablo Sandoval left via free agency.
A rotation of Clayton Kershaw, Zach Greinke and Cole Hamels would make the Dodgers heavy World Series favorites. Can you imagine that troika in a five-game series? The Dodgers, who are one ace short, have the ability to absorb the rest of Hamels’ contract and they have a load of prospects. It would be foolish to expect uber prospects Corey Seager or Julio Urias but the Dodgers have a very fertile system.
Kershaw, who has always admired Hamels, was certain that the Phillies mega-trade chip wouldn’t resign three years ago. The best pitcher in baseball last season thought Hamels would ink a deal with the Dodgers.
“Tell Cole I have a locker ready for him in LA next to mine,” Kershaw said. I told Kershaw he would stay with the Phillies and he said, "do you want to bet?"
I wish I made a substantial wager.
Kershaw and much of Southern California would rejoice if Hamels joined the Dodgers. Would Los Angeles trade Yasiel Puig, who has been a headache at times for manager Don Mattingly for Hamels? How about one of their high ceiling hurlers, Grant Holmes and promising outfielder Alex Verdugo? Both are just 19. Such a deal would be reminiscent of the Mets 2011 swap of Carlos Beltran for Zack Wheeler, who was one of New York’s baby aces before he was lost in spring training to Tommy John surgery.
Another match for the Phillies is the Cardinals. St. Louis once had a big divisional lead, but Pittsburgh has closed the gap. The Cardinals are wise enough to realize that they need to be built for the regular and post-season. St. Louis could really use Hamels since Adam Wainwright is out for the season. Wainwright and Hamels in a rotation for the next couple of seasons would be more than formidable.
The Cardinals have an embarrassment of riches in their farm system.
Catcher Carson Kelly has yet to live up to offensive expectations, but he might meet muster in the future. Kelly, 20, pitcher Luke Weaver, 22, who had a great career at Florida State and 18-year old outfielder Magneuris Sierra, who is very toolsy, would make for a nice package.
The bottom line is that the Phillies have to get something for Hamels in order to part with a pitcher who is the youngest of the players who helped make the glorious run possible.
But what good is Hamels if he still wearing red pinstripes August 1? Hamels is an ideal mentor for Nola.
“That’s more important than people realize,” the Pirates' Vance Worley said. “Doc (Roy Halladay) helped me so much with the mental aspects of the game. Cole was helpful too. To have a veteran, who has done it all is huge for young pitchers.”
Hamels gives fans a reason to head to the ballpark every day. Big market teams need some marquee players.
It would have made baseball sense for the Mets to have traded David Wright after the 2012 season. It was the post-Madoff era for the less than flush Mets. Wright’s oft-injured back was a known problem. But the Mets paid top-dollar to keep Wright, who has only played eight games this season due to his balky back. Wright is on the Mets payroll until 2025. The Mets gambled and lost.
Hamels, who ironically dropped to the 17th slot in the first round of the 2002 draft due to a broken arm he suffered in high school, has been very healthy throughout his Phillies career. Since his first full season, Hamels has never started less than 28 games. He’s thrown more than 200 innings in six of the last seven seasons. Hamels arguably had the best season of his career in 2014.
“Cole is tremendous,” Pence said during the Giants visit last month. “He’s an ace. Aces don’t grow on trees. I guarantee you that any team would love to have him. I understand it if the Phillies trade him. They traded me. That’s the business side of things. But I think it’ll take a lot to get him. I would ask for a lot for Cole.”
Apparently Pence is GM material. The only way to trade Hamels is for pieces that will almost absolutely speed up the rebuilding process. If you want middling prospects, trade anyone on the roster not named Hamels, Nola, Giles or Franco.
The Phillies should only be in the business of helping themselves, not other organizations.
