December 26, 2023
Dale Zanine/USA TODAY Sports
Zack Wheeler has pitched in countless big games over the last two falls.
After signing Aaron Nola, and then missing out on the top prize in post-Shohei Ohtani free agency — Yoshinobu Yamamoto — the Phillies don't appear to be looking to make any more splashes.
There are some names still out there that could help Philly: ranging from Cy Young winner Blake Snell, to former MVP Cody Bellinger, to the league's top closer Josh Hader. But there appears to be a priority for Dave Dombroswki and the Phils' front office that supersedes bringing in another star. And that's extending ace Zack Wheeler past the 2024 season.
According to an MLB.com story a few days before Christmas, signing the starter to an extension is the top priority:
So now what?
“It’s more around the edges, trying to get our club better,” Dombrowski said.
It means rotation and bullpen depth. (Free agents like Blake Snell, Josh Hader, etc., remain highly unlikely.) There had been some thought the Phillies would try to sign an outfielder to provide insurance in case center fielder Johan Rojas struggled. But the Phils do not want to block an opportunity for Rojas by signing someone who expects regular playing time.
Any outfielder the Phillies might add, Dombrowski said, “Might be going around the edges.”
Besides relatively modest upgrades, sources said the No. 1 priority is signing ace Zack Wheeler to a contract extension. It is something they always planned to pursue, even if they got lucky enough to sign Yamamoto. [MLB.com]
Adding some depth seems to be the extent of the rest of the team's free agency activity (though it could be a tactical move to downplay their interest in the top guys?).
Regardless, Wheeler extended as a Phillie, would help to keep this team's championship window open longer. They boast a ton of big time players on big time, long contracts:
| Player | Age | Through |
| Trea Turner | 31 | 2033 |
| Bryce Harper | 31 | 2031 |
| Aaron Nola | 31 | 2030 |
| Nick Castellanos | 32 | 2026 |
| Taijuan Walker | 31 | 2026 |
| Jose Alvarado | 29 | 2026 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 31 | 2025 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 33 | 2025 |
| Seranthony Dominguez | 29 | 2025 |
| Matt Strahm | 32 | 2024 |
| Zack Wheeler | 34 | 2024 |
Wheeler (along with reliever Matt Strahm) is the only big time Phillies player who is not either here for the long haul or under team control for years to come. He is also the oldest player on the list above.
Despite his age, he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball since he came to Philadelphia. Here's a look at some of his MLB ranks among all starting pitchers since signing with the Phils in 2020 — including postseason (via statmuse):
| Category | Stat | Rank |
| ERA | 3.00 | 3rd |
| Innings Pitched | 692.2 | 3rd* |
| Strikeouts | 743 | 5th* |
| FIP | 2.63 | 1st |
| Wins | 46 | 5th |
| fWAR | 19.3 | 1st |
*Wheeler trails Phillies teammate Aaron Nola in these categories
The Phillies already pay Wheeler $23.5 million a year — so it's doubtful the two sides are very far apart on AAV for an extension, but it's possible the hangup is the years. As you can see above, the Phillies will be very, very old in a few seasons from now. In 2030, for example, they'll have 38 year old Harper, Turner and Nola all under contract. Giving Wheeler a two or three year extension makes total sense. Giving him four or five years might not.
Either way, the Phillies seem to be satisfied with the starting five they have projected for 2024, with Wheeler and Nola joining Taijuan Walker, Ranger Suarez and Cris Sanchez. While the team should add some depth and spring training competition, it still has one of the best rotations in baseball.
The Phillies' front office went down to the wire with Nola, who did not choose to sign an extension this time last year, played out his contract and elected to remain a Phillie as a free agent. The Phillies no doubt would like to avoid that uncertainty two seasons in a row.
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