February 11, 2024
Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports
Brock Purdy is not as good of a football player as Patrick Mahomes.
Super Bowl LVIII game day has arrived, as the Chiefs will take on the 49ers in a rematch of Super Bowl LIV. The only people excited for this matchup are probably just residents of Kansas City or San Francisco, and scattered Taylor Swift fans throughout the country. For the gambling generates, we'll make our final pick of the 2023-2024 season.
Chiefs vs. 49ers (-2): Patrick Mahomes has now played in 17 career playoff games, or the equivalent of one full regular season. His playoff passing stats: 422 of 626 (67.4%), 4802 yards, 39 TDs, 7 INTs, 1 lost fumble, 106.3 QB rating. He also has 81 carries for 458 yards and 5 TDs on the ground. Those are MVP-like numbers, but, you know, against the best teams in the league. Oh, and he is 14-3 in those games, and 2-1 in the Super Bowl.
The question is whether this Chiefs team is like those other Chiefs teams under Mahomes. There were certainly times during the regular season that the Chiefs appeared mortal, and yet they still finished in the top quarter of the league in DVOA in all three phases (8th in offense, 7th in defense, and 6th in special teams). In their three playoff games, they looked every bit like the dynasty that they are. They easily handled the Dolphins in the wildcard round, they took care of business as they usually do against the Bills, and their defense dominated the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game. In my opinion, the Bills and Ravens are both better than the 49ers, and the Chiefs beat them both on the road.
The 49ers, meanwhile, were not nearly as impressive getting to the Super Bowl, as they were arguably outplayed at home both by the 7 seed Packers in the divisional round and by a very inexperienced Lions team in the NFC Championship Game. Brock Purdy has played like six bad quarters in the playoffs, and two good ones.
Did We Really Get Beat That Bad? (NFL Playoff Edition)
— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) January 30, 2024
Net Success Rates for each playoff game so far
Lions should've won on Sunday man pic.twitter.com/qt4SQLnRFw
There are some matchup advantages in the 49ers' favor, like the Niners' rushing offense against the Chiefs' run defense, or the Niners' edge rushers against the Chiefs' offensive tackles. One could also make the argument that Travis Kelce, the Chiefs' best offensive weapon by a mile, could find it difficult to make plays in the middle of the field against Fred Warner and the spine of the Niners' defense.
However, looking too closely at those matchups is overthinking it, in my opinion. The Chiefs are playing their best football of the season in the playoffs, and the 49ers are not. Plus, I just trust Mahomes and Andy Reid at this point, whereas I have no such trust in Purdy or Kyle Shanahan. Give me the Chiefs, and sure, I'll take 2 points.
• Last 9 years, ATS: 394-339-19 (0.537)
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