April 12, 2017
Some might call the Sixers’ season finale tonight against the New York Knickerbockers “meaningless,” but those people clearly haven’t been reading our draft pick trackers throughout the season and lottery odds updates down the stretch. Like it or not, this is important stuff!
There are 14 games on the NBA schedule tonight, and we still have ping-pong balls to be decided in advance of next month’s NBA draft lottery.
• Timberwolves lose to Thunder, 100-98 (bad)
• Mavericks (and Tony Romo) lose to Nuggets, 109-91 (bad)
• Lakers beat Pelicans, 108-96 (good)
• Kings beat Suns, 129-104 (good and bad)
Despite their best efforts, the Los Angeles Lakers did the improbable. They won five in a row down the stretch, and now they are locked into the third-worst record and the third-best lottery odds at the lottery. Pop pop, it's Showtime! The Artist Formerly Known as Ron Artest certainly got the job done for the Sixers on Tuesday night in his final game at Staples Center.
#LakersWin for Metta 🌎✌️ pic.twitter.com/Udg7SRv7bn
— Los Angeles Lakers (@Lakers) April 12, 2017
So, what does this officially mean for the Sixers?
• The Lakers pick has a 53.1 percent chance of falling out of the draft’s Top-3 and conveying to the Sixers this season.
• Broken down into each draft slot, that means a 22.6 percent chance at the 4th pick, 26.5 percent chance at the 5th pick, and 4.0 percent chance at the 6th pick. Those add up, right?
This didn’t look possible a few weeks ago, but the Lakers managed to win some games they probably shouldn’t have and Phoenix took their tanking to another level. The Lakers play tonight against the Warriors, but that game actually is completely meaningless.
• Sixers at New York (duh)
• Orlando vs. Detroit
• Minnesota at Houston
• Dallas at Memphis
• Sacramento at Clippers
• New Orleans at Portland
There are two races at stake here:
• Fourth place: The Sixers and the Magic are tied for the fourth-worst record and both teams appear to have winnable games. The Sixers are taking on a Knicks team also with an incentive to lose and the Magic will play a Pistons team at home that already has their bags packed. Catch the excitement!
• Six to ten: This is a jumbled mess. The Knicks seal the sixth-best odds with a loss and the Wolves “clinch” at least seventh with a loss. Then it gets tricky, with Sacramento (and the Sixers) tied with the Fighting Romos for eighth and New Orleans lurking only a game behind in 10th.
As of now, the Sixers’ odds (with the Kings pick swap factored in) at a Top-3 pick are 40 percent. We will see if that number holds, improves, or worsens tonight. All three are in play.
Based on the results of tonight's games (PHI, ORL, SAC, MIN, & DAL), the Sixers' lottery odds of getting #1 range from 10.2% to 15.5%
— max (@MaxRappaport) April 12, 2017
As much as everyone is celebrating the Lakers dropping down to the third-worst odds, there is still a 47 percent chance (46.9, if you want to get all technical) that they keep their pick. In this scenario, the Sixers miss out on Markelle Fultz but still can pick a very good player at 5. And next year, with the Lakers pick completely unprotected, it would be time for the Luka Doncic/Michael Porter watch to begin.
Follow Rich on Twitter: @rich_hofmann
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