December 28, 2020
One would think that by Week 17 of the NFL season the sports books would pretty much have this down and the lines would all make total sense. That would be the case, sure, if every team still had something to play for.
But this late in the season, nearly half the teams listed below have nothing to play for other than draft position. Even some of those slated for the playoffs that could gain or lose a spot depending on the outcome could rest some players in the hopes that they'll be 100% for the playoffs.
In other words, bettors should be careful in the final week of the regular season, as a team that might look like a lock on paper could turn into a dud should they opt to sit their starters. And others who have looked lost could pull off an upset despite it hurting their draft position (we're looking at you, Jets).
Still, we'll do our best to provide some insight for one last time this season — until we return in playoff mode next week — as we break down the spreads (courtesy of TheLines.com) for every Week 17 NFL game.
[Note: I tried my best to make sense of all the NFL playoff scenarios this week, but there are a lot of moving pieces. If you think I'm wrong, I probably am — and you can confirm it right here on the NFL's website.]
Vikings at Lions
There's no line for this game just yet, but both of these teams have been eliminated from the playoffs. Matthew Stafford injured his ankle in the Lions' Christmas Day loss to the Bucs, and although it's considered a minor injury, there's really no reason to play him in what could very well be his final game in Detroit if the team decides to undergo a full rebuild after firing their coach and GM earlier this season.
Cowboys (-2.5) at Giants
On the other side of the coin are these two teams with losing records. There's still a ton to play for here, as the winner of this game will win the NFC East ... IF the Eagles can upset Washington on Sunday night (more on that in a bit).
Steelers at Browns (-7)
Before you do a double-take at the Browns, who just lost to the Jets, being favored over the 12-3 Steelers, it's worth noting that the Steelers clinched the AFC North last weekend and have no chance of moving up and getting that first-round bye (there's only one this year, and the Chiefs already clinched that). The 10-5 Browns, meanwhile, will be fighting for their playoff lives and can get in with a win.
Dolphins at Bills
There's no line yet for this game, but that will likely change once Monday night's game between the Bills and Patriots is wrapped up. Buffalo has already clinched the AFC East and the Dolphins, like the other four 10-5 teams, will have to wait until Week 17 to earn their spot in the playoffs.
Jets at Patriots (-4.5)
This is the first time since Gillette Stadium opened that the Patriots will play a home game without any playoff implications. That stadium is 18 years old. Both these teams are done, so who knows what this one will look like.
Falcons at Buccaneers (-6.5)
Atlanta is already eliminated from playoff contention, although they almost pulled off a huge upset on Sunday in Kansas City. The Bucs already clinched their wild card berth at 10-5. Will Bruce Arians give Tom Brady and Co. a week off before the postseason? That could change things.
Ravens (-11.5) at Bengals
The Ravens are playing for a postseason berth. Win and they're in. The Bengals ... not so much. Baltimore could also back into the playoffs with a Browns or Colts loss.
Titans (-7.5) at Texans
The Titans will take the AFC South title with a win or a Colts loss, and since both teams are playing in the late window, Tennessee will have to go all out and won't know its fate until the game is over. The Titans could also clinch a wild card berth before kickoff if the Dolphins or Ravens lose their games earlier in the day. The Texans, meanwhile, are done no matter what.
Packers (-5.5) at Bears
Don't look now, but Mitchell Trubisky has the Bears playing some good football, and they could sneak into the playoffs with a win or a Cardinals loss. But, because the schedule-makers know what they're doing, both games will be taking place at the same time. The Packers, meanwhile, have already clinched the NFC North, but they still have plenty to play for as they can clinch the NFC's top seed and lone first-round bye with a win or a Seahawks loss. That's incredibly meaningful, so don't expect the Packers to take this one lightly.
Seahawks (-4.5) at 49ers
Like the Packers, Seattle has already clinched a division title and a playoff berth, but they can still earn a first-round bye. For that to happen, they'll need to beat the 49ers and get some help from the Bears, who would need to upset the Packers.
Raiders (-1.5) at Broncos
Two teams with nothing left to play for this season.
Cardinals at Rams (-4.5)
Both of these teams are still alive in the the NFC. The Cardinals are in a must-win game while the Rams can still lose and get in as long as Chicago also loses. There will be a lot on the line in this one, and with so many late games going on at once, the scenarios could be changing by the minute in the second half.
Chargers at Chiefs
This game is also currently off the board, probably because the Chiefs have already clinched the No. 1 seed but haven't yet announced if they'll play their starters in a meaningless game against a division rival that also has nothing to play for.
Jaguars at Colts (-14.5)
The Jags just locked up the No. 1 overall pick, so they no longer have any added incentive to lose, but the Colts have all the incentive in the world to win. After a tough loss to the Steelers on Sunday, the Colts are going to need to win and get some help (either BAL, CLE or MIA must lose or tie) in order to clinch a playoff berth. They also have an outside shot of winning the AFC South if the Titans lose.
Saints (-6.5) at Panthers
The Saints only really have seeding left to play for, and they'll need quite a bit of help if they want to earn that first round bye: a win + a GB loss + a SEA win. This late afternoon window is going to be bonkers.
Washington (-1.5) at Eagles
And finally, we get to the Eagles and WFT. No matter what happens between the Cowboys and Giants earlier in the day, this is a win-or-go-home game for them. The problem is they don't yet know who will be starting at quarterback. If Alex Smith's calf still isn't ready, it could be Taylor Heinicke under center for Washington with the division title on the line. Earlier in the day, the team released former first-round pick Dwayne Haskins.
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