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October 04, 2018

Week 5 NFL picks

For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 5 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.


Colts at Patriots (-10): The Colts were formerly a great rival of the Pats in the Manning-Brady days. More recently, they were the team that dimed out the Pats for deflating footballs, one of the multiple times the Patriots have been caught cheating. I mean, they had a guy who called himself "the deflator," which the Pats claimed was because he was a "big fellow" who was trying to lose weight. Lol.

Anyway, I look forward to the day the Pats are punished again for circumventing the league's salary cap by paying Tom Brady through his TB12 business. I'm not sure how the NFL has allowed that to go on for as long as it has.

And yes, if any Pats fans are reading this, I look forward to your emails that link to that moronic "your team cheats" website.


Titans (-3.5) at Bills: How is this crap Tennessee team going to be 4-1?


Falcons at Steelers (-3): I picked the Falcons to win the Super Bowl, so I may as well just go down with the ship.


Broncos at Jets (-1): A rookie QB vs. Von Miller and the Broncos' pass rush? I'll take the Broncos and the point, thank you very much.


Jaguars at Chiefs (-3): I'm just going to keep riding the Chiefs until someone stops them.


Packers (-1) at Lions: This line feels like a trap. Aaron Rodgers is only giving one point to the garbage Lions? I'm not touching this game.


Ravens (-3) at Browns: The Ravens have quietly been one of the best defenses in the NFL so far this season. I like them a lot against a rookie quarterback.


Giants at Panthers (-7): The Panthers are coming off their bye, and they're facing a bottom five team with a coach who is coming under fire just four games into his Giants tenure.


Dolphins at Bengals (-6.5): Are the Bengals primed to rise from the doldrums to make a first round exit in the playoffs again this season, thus extending Marvis Lewis' job security for another five years?


Raiders at Chargers (-5): The Chargers are now clear Super Bowl favorites with the addition of Donnie Jones.


Cardinals at 49ers (-4): Ugh.


Vikings at Eagles (-3): The Vikings are simply not the same defense without Everson Griffen rushing off the edge, and their offensive line remains an Achilles heel that the team failed to fix this offseason. The Eagles should be able to get pressure on "Kurt" Cousins and win in the trenches, assuming their star-studded offensive line can make adjustments after a shaky start, which I believe they'll do. This is good matchup for the Eagles.

Plus, if you don't count the meaningless Week 17 game last year when the Eagles' JV lost to the Cowboys' varsity, the Eagles haven't lost at home since Week 14, 2016. That's 13 straight. So there's that.


Rams (-7) at Seahawks: The Rams have the look of a juggernaut, while the Seahawks just lost their best defender. With a Rams win, they'll have a three-game lead in the NFC West. I think they go for the throat in this game.


Cowboys at Texans (-3): Deshaun Watson is beginning to wake up after a slow start. He should be able to make enough plays to outscore a Cowboys offense that is extremely thin on play-making ability.


Redskins at Saints (-6.5): The Saints' 3.5-point line against the Giants was a gift from Vegas last week. This one kind of feels that way too in a game in which Drew Brees is likely to break the all-time passing yardage record.

• Picks against the spread: Broncos (+1), Chiefs (-3), Ravens (-3), Rams (-7), Saints (-6.5).

• Eagles picks: 2-2

• 2018 season, straight up 33-28-2 (0.540)
• 2018 season, ATS: 9-8-1 (.528)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS:  41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)

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