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October 10, 2018

Week 6 NFL picks

For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 6 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.


Eagles (-3) at Giants: The Eagles aren't inspiring much confidence at the moment, with their offensive line woes, carelessness with the football, their inability to stop the deep ball, and a wide assortment of injuries. However, the Giants inspire even less confidence, since, you know, they just suck at football.

It's likely going to be the kind of a rainy, ugly game that is typically won in the trenches, where the Eagles have an overwhelming advantage, even if Lane Johnson can't play, and even if their trenches on both sides of the ball have not lived up to expectations so far in 2018. 


Buccaneers at Falcons (-3.5): Jameis Winston will be the Bucs' starting quarterback going forward. I'm not sure if that helps or hurts them. Leaning toward "hurts them." The Falcons, meanwhile, are perhaps the league's most disappointing team at 1-4. This is an absolute must-win game for them.


Panthers at Redskins (-1): Why are the Redskins favored here? I "google news'd" Cam Newton just to make sure he wasn't hurt or something, but he's fine. What am I missing?


Seahawks (-3) at Raiders: This is the first London game of the NFL season, and it's a snore-fest. 


Colts at Jets (-2.5): The Colts are well-coached, but they just don't have much in the way of talent.


Cardinals at Vikings (-10.5): 10.5 points, huh? That's pretty tempting, given that the Vikings were three-score favorites earlier this year against the Bills, and they got blown out. This team in no way should be double-digit favorites over anyone, bad as the Cards may be.


Steelers at Bengals (-2.5): The Steelers have a four-game winning streak in Cincy, and have taken 7 of the last 8. It also appears that they're beginning to wake up a bit, after blowing out Atlanta last week. The Bengals are 4-1, and have played well, but the Steelers just seem to have their number.


Chargers (-1) at Browns: Interesting. The Chargers are a clearly more talented team, and they're only one-point faves. What do you know, Vegas? I'll bite.


Bills at Texans (-1): Bleh. Give me the home team in a matchup between two crappy teams.


Bears (-3) at Dolphins: The Bears may have the best defense in the NFL. They are for real. The Dolphins have looked bad after a 3-0 start.


Rams (-7) at Broncos: I won't be picking against the Rams anytime soon.


Ravens (-3) at Titans: Both of these teams are annoying, in that they show up one week, and lay an egg the next. Best to just pass.


Jaguars (-3) at Cowboys: The Jaguars have injury issues at the moment, which is bad news against a Dallas front that has generated good pressure this season. Still, how is Dallas' crap offense going to move the ball against this Jags D?


Chiefs at Patriots (-3.5): And here's Bill Belichick being Bill Belichick:

People seem to love this. I don't get it. Why do people think that being a complete and total a-hole is endearing in any way? What a loathsome human being.

Anyway, the Chiefs are better.


49ers at Packers (-9.5): The Niners were thought to be a playoff contender before the season began, and then Jimmy G tore his ACL, and they were done. The Eagles' run to the Super Bowl last year is going to look so much more impressive as teams that lose their starting quarterbacks completely fall apart, like the 49ers have already, and the Packers did a season ago. 

Byes: Lions, Saints.

• Picks against the spread: Panthers (+1), Cardinals (+10.5), Steelers (+2.5), Chargers (-1), Chiefs (+3.5).

• Eagles picks: 2-3

• 2018 season, straight up 41-35-2 (0.539)
• 2018 season, ATS: 11-11-1 (.500)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS:  41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)

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