October 20, 2022
Kirthmon F. Dozier/USA TODAY Sports
Eagles fans will hope Dan Campbell and the Lions can bite enough of the Cowboys' kneecaps on Sunday.
For the gambling enthusiasts, here are my Week 7 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Saints at Cardinals (-2.5): This game shouldn't have much national appeal, but it means a whole lot to the Eagles, who of course own the Saints' first-round pick in 2023. The injury report for both of these teams is troubling.
For example, the Saints will be without Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, Marshon Lattimore, Andrus Peat, and Adam Troutman. The Cardinals will be without Marquise Brown, Rodney Hudson, Justin Pugh, and Dennis Gardeck.
The Cardinals were 6-0 heading into their seventh game a year ago. The Saints were 4-2. How quickly both of these teams became afterthoughts. The Cardinals have looked significantly worse, in my opinion, so give me the Saints.
Lions at Cowboys (-7): In case you missed it, our Nick Tricome published a story about how Cowboys players told Nick Sirianni that the Eagles didn't belong on the field with them during a meaningless Week 18 game last season, in which the Cowboys' starters beat the Eagles' practice squad players 51-26.
A list of some Eagles who played double-digit snaps in that game:
I do recall Dallas players parading around after that game like they had just won the Super Bowl. What loser energy. In hindsight, that makes their loss in the first round of the playoffs to the 49ers even funnier.
Anyway, while not a walkover game, the Cowboys should get back in the win column Sunday against Detroit.
Falcons at Bengals (-6): After a slow start, the Bengals offense is starting to figure some things out. Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd all have at least 300 receiving yards apiece. The Falcons have played above expectations, but they can't match Cincy's talent.
Colts at Titans (-2.5): The Titans are 3-2 with a point differential of -22. The Colts are 3-2-1 with a point differential of -18. One of these teams is going finish 9-8 and get a home playoff game. I'll guess it's the Titans, who are 11-2 against the rest of the AFC South since 2020.
Packers (-4.5) at Commanders: For the first time this year, we're busting out "must win" game status for a contending team. After losses to both New York teams in consecutive weeks, the Packers are desperate to get back in the win column in Maryland, especially since their next game is in Buffalo. They'll face Taylor Heinicke, who will give the Commanders a better chance of winning than Carson Wentz, but who also still isn't good enough.
I know that Green Bay has played like a shell of its former self this season, but on paper that (-4.5) looks very appealing. I'll bite.
Buccaneers (-11) at Panthers: A week ago, I took the Panthers at +10.5 as one of my picks against the spread against a Rams team that I don't think is very good anymore and shouldn't have been favored by double-digit points over any team. During the fourth quarter of that game, I wondered to myself, "Uh, hey Jimmy, why tf did you make the Panthers one of your picks, under any circumstances?" I don't think the Bucs are very good anymore either, and that +11 looks good to me on paper, but I've learned my lesson.
Giants at Jaguars (-3): The Giants and Jaguars are a pair of teams that drastically improved their coaching staffs this past offseason, and are playing much better football. The difference is that the Giants have figured out how to turn their improvements into wins, while the Jaguars have not.
Browns at Ravens (-6.5): After watching the Browns this summer in joint practices, I thought they were going to be bad enough that their season would be over by the time Deshaun Watson returned from his suspension. They got out to a 2-1 start with wins over the Panthers and Steelers (that don't look impressive at all anymore), before dropping their last three, including a 38-15 smashing by the Bailey Zappe-led Patri*ts last Sunday.
The Ravens have been quietly disappointing so far this season, in that there is a wide chasm between them and teams like the Bills and Chiefs. Still, they'll handle the Browns.
Jets at Broncos (-1): This line was originally Broncos (-3) for some reason and I couldn't wait to take the Jets, who continue to be disrespected by Vegas. I still like them at (+1), and I'll keep riding them until the oddsmakers realize that they're actually good.
Texans at Raiders (-7): The Seller Bowl. Or Cellar Bowl. Whatever. Take your pick.
Seahawks at Chargers (-6): I'm hoping for a third straight game in which Seattle's punter just forgets to punt.
Chiefs (-2.5) at 49ers: The Niners are a very banged up team, particularly along their defensive line, and the Chiefs have the offensive firepower to exploit that.
Steelers at Dolphins (-7): Wait, this is the Sunday Night Football game this week? (Checks Phillies-Padres series schedule)... 2:37 p.m. EST?!? That is not cool. It's hard enough to keep up with the Red Zone channel, plus whatever specific game I'm paying attention to during the 1:00 p.m. games, and now I have to add an NLCS game (and thus a third TV + cable box) to the mix? We couldn't get a night playoff game to run opposite this trash matchup?
Bears at Patri*ts (-7.5): Speaking of bad primetime games, why are the Bears playing in primetime on two consecutive weekends? Or at all, really?
Teams on their bye week: Bills, Rams, Vikings, Eagles.
• Last 8 years, ATS: 316-260-13 (0.548)
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