November 12, 2022
At this rate, it's tough to find any reason to pick against the Eagles given their current trajectory.
Can things change? In the NFL, in an instant.
But right now, the Eagles are off to their best start in franchise history at 8-0, have a generous remaining schedule, and have been playing some of the league's consistently best football.
On Monday night, they'll come home for their second divisional matchup against the Washington Commanders, a team that has found some momentum with wins in three of the last four (including a near upset of Minnesota last Sunday), yet still finds themselves at the bottom of the NFC East.
Outside of the dreaded, lingering threat of a trap game, our writers are once again leaning Eagles. Wrote Shamus Clancy:
I feel like my Eagles picks are increasingly unhinged, expecting total domination. The team, in their defense, has done little to dissuade me from continuing to do so.
A Monday Night Football home game against Taylor Heinicke in front of a well-lubricated crowd? Smells like a rout. The Birds will handily win the battle in two out of the three phases of the game (special teams, oof) and have this one sealed up before the second half starts.
For the sake of pageviews, it's a shame that this isn't Carson Wentz's return to Philadelphia. [PhillyVoice]
That's us. What's everyone else thinking?
Here's a look...
• Inquirer.com: The Inquirer beats are all Eagles again. Washington has been better of late, but the Commanders shouldn't be anything the Eagles can't handle or outlast. There's just too much talent on the roster. Wrote Jeff McLane, who predicts a 27-17 final:
It’s tough to see Hurts and the Eagles offense having to endure a sustained period of failure. They have too many ways and weapons to beat defenses, and have for the most part avoided self-inflicted wounds. Could they come out flat after another extended break? Sure. Could the turnover gods decide this is the week they lose that battle? You bet. And could Washington exploit their few weaknesses? Absolutely. But there still isn’t enough reason to predict an upset, especially in favor of a 10 ½-point road underdog. [The Inquirer]
• The Athletic: Eagles for Vic Tafur. The secondary presents a very bad matchup for Taylor Heinicke.
Taylor Heinicke is like your crazy ex who is a lot of fun but really, really not good for you. He is a tough guy with an average arm and some mobility who likes to throw the ball up for grabs three to four times per game. It cost the Commanders a win last week, but he’s covered for me ATS three weeks in a row.
I still love him, but I hate this matchup for him. The Eagles recently added pass rusher Robert Quinn, and they have an excellent secondary that toys with mediocre quarterbacks like a cat does a mouse. The Eagles defense leads the league in turnover rate at 22 percent (the Commanders are last at 4.2 percent). Scoring drives against the Eagles average 10.24 plays, the highest number in the NFL.
Jalen Hurts and company were up on the Commanders 24-0 at halftime six weeks ago before the Eagles took their foot off the gas. I took the Texans to cover the large number against the Eagles and won because the best team in the NFL would be looking forward to this Monday night showcase. Well, here we are.
The pick: Eagles -11 [The Athletic, $]
• Gregg Rosenthal, NFL.com: Again, the Eagles' secondary is bad news for Washington with the way Heinicke plays. 31-14 Eagles for Rosenthal.
The Commanders have won two of three Taylor Heinicke starts, with luck and an improved defense being the biggest factors. Heinicke regularly gives his opponents 3-to-4 chances a game to create takeaways. The Eagles have forced the most turnovers in the NFL while giving up the fewest. Washington, meanwhile, is tied for 29th in takeaways. In short: Expect Philly to get three extra possessions and roll. [NFL.com]
• Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: The Eagles are also coming in with plenty of rest from the mini-bye. Another advantage that will put them over the top for Prisco.
The Eagles are riding high and will be rested here, having played last Thursday. The Commanders blew a lead last week to the Vikings. The Eagles will continue to role on offense, but they need to shore up their run defense. Eagles take it but Washington hangs around.
Pick: Eagles 30, Commanders 20 [CBS Sports]
• Sheil Kapadia, The Ringer: From the eight-game sample size, Kapadia sees little reason to not go Eagles with this one, even with the 10.5-point spread.
When these two teams faced off in Week 3, the Eagles took a 24-0 lead into halftime and never looked back, winning 24-8. They sacked Carson Wentz nine times in that game and had 17 quarterback hits. Taylor Heinicke can make more plays out of structure than Wentz, but the Eagles should still have a big advantage with their pass rush.
On the other side of the ball, the Eagles offense just hasn’t had a bad game yet. DeVonta Smith had eight catches for 169 yards in the first meeting. On the season, Jalen Hurts ranks first in Pro Football Focus’s adjusted completion percentage, which strips away drops, spikes, and throwaways. The Eagles offense is third in EPA per drive, behind only the Bills and Chiefs.
If Heinicke makes some second-reaction plays and Washington’s defensive line pressures Hurts, this could be a competitive game in the fourth. But there’s little reason to doubt the Eagles here, based on what we’ve seen through nine weeks.
The pick: Eagles (-10.5) [The Ringer]
ProFootballTalk: Eagles for the PFT crew, and they didn't have to think too hard about it, it seems.
MDS’s take: The Commanders have played well since Taylor Heinicke took over as starting quarterback, but they’re not going to play well enough to give much of a game to the Eagles.
MDS’s pick: Eagles 31, Commanders 13.
Florio’s take: Joe Buck and Troy Aikman had better be ready to fill plenty of garbage time.
Florio’s pick: Eagles 35, Commanders 10. [PFT, NBC Sports]
• Bill Bender, The Sporting News: Eagles for the win.
Jalen Hurts gets another prime-time game, and he'll be up against an improved Washington defense. Hurts, however, will present issues for the Commanders, who are 1-4 when they allow more than 200 yards passing to the other team. Hurts and A.J. Brown will connect for two more scores, and the Eagles barrel toward the second half of the season with a 9-0 record.
Pick: Eagles 31, Commanders 21 [The Sporting News]
• Vinnie Iyer, The Sporting News: And Eagles to cover the spread.
The Eagles are a very strong home team, especially in prime time. Taylor Heinicke is due for another rough game while under pressure and facing a tough secondary. The Commanders cannot run effectively enough to hang around after Jalen Hurts rips their secondary with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
Pick: Eagles win 35-22 and cover the spread [The Sporting News]
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