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November 11, 2024

Are the Eagles real contenders? Here's what the numbers say

The Eagles have the second best record in the NFC — but what do some other metrics suggest?

Eagles NFL
101324_Eagles_Hurts-Brown-4225.jpg Colleen Claggett/for PhillyVoice

A.J. Brown #11 of the Philadelphia Eagles celebrates with Jalen Hurts #1 after scoring a touchdown during a NFL football game between the Cleveland Browns and the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on October 13, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

The Eagles are 7-2, have the second best record in the NFC, and have pretty good vibes in a city that is otherwise in desperate need of some positivity when it comes to the world of sports.

But is that record deceiving? Or are the Birds actually a threat to make it to another Super Bowl?

Total wins — 2nd (7)

The Eagles' trail only the Lions in total wins in the NFC, and are tied with the Commanders (who have one more loss than Philly does). It's self explanatory, the Eagles are contenders in this metric.

DVOA — 6th (13.3%)

The Eagles have the 9th best DVOA in the NFL and 6th best in the NFC, and a top 10 DVOA is where you want to be. The numbers slant better for the Eagles defense, which is 4th in the NFC, while their offense ranks at 9th best.

Point differential — 3rd (+72)

Not surprisingly, the Eagles are also in a group of three elite NFC teams in point differential, trailing just Washington (+73) and Detroit (+113). Offensively, Philadelphia has scored much less than those two teams, just 233 points in contrast to 284 from the Lions and and 290 for the Commanders, but they have allowed the second fewest points in the entire conference (161, behind the Vikings).

Turnover differential — 9th (+1)

In their first four games, the Eagles were -6 in turnovers. After their five takeaway day against the Cowboys in Week 10, they have climbed back to positive turnover differential territory, at +7 over their last five games, all of them wins. They are pretty far behind the leaders in this category, the Bears and Lions are each at a +8 differential.

Yards per game — 5th (373.9)

The Eagles lead the NFL in yards per game over their last three games, and are fifth overall. Their offense leans heavily on the run, which leads the NFC with 176.1 yards per game. 

Yards allowed per game — 1st (274.1)

From a yardage perspective, the Eagles have the best defense in the NFC, and are just a half a yard per game behind the Titans for the most stout defense in the entire sport. 

Strength of schedule so far — 15th 

The Eagles have played the second easiest schedule so far. Which might help to explain why they have such elite numbers in many of the categories listed above. Only the Bears in the NFC have had less difficult slate of games. In their final eight scheduled contests, the Eagles have five games against teams currently in the playoff picture, and the 7th toughest remaining road to the playoffs.

NFC title odds — 2nd (+400)

According to DraftKings Sportsbok, the Eagles are currently 4-to-1 to make it to the Super Bowl, the second highest odds of any NFC team besides the Lions who are at +190. They have the top odds to win the NFC East by some margin over Washington, and have the fifth best odds to win Super Bowl LIX.


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