December 06, 2021
After 13 games, the Philadelphia Eagles have a 6-7 record, one game back of the 6 and 7 seed placeholders, the 6-6 Washington Football Team and the 6-6 San Francisco 49ers. They are 2.5 games behind the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East.
The New York Times' playoff model gives the Eagles a 31 percent chance of making the playoffs at all, with a 3 percent chance of winning the NFC East, while fivethirtyeight.com is a little more optimistic, giving the Birds a 38 percent chance of making the tourney, with a 5 percent chance of winning the NFC East.
For the Eagles to have any chance of winning the NFC East, they would have to win all four of their remaining games against Washington, the Giants, Washington again, and the Cowboys. They would still be unable to catch the Cowboys if any of the following things occur:
There is another scenario in which the Eagles could lose specifically to the Giants and still win the division, but trust me when I say it's not worth your time to get too deep into the weeds on that one.
In other words, the Eagles would need an unlikely Dallas collapse down the stretch to have any chance of an NFC East crown, hence the 3 and 5 percent odds from the New York Times and fivethirtyeight, respectively.
The Eagles got help this weekend in the wildcard department with losses by the Vikings, 49ers, Falcons, and Saints, but remain on the outside looking in, for now. They would be sitting in the 7 seed spot if the Raiders' Trevon Moehrig could have held onto this INT late against Taylor Heinicke and Washington.
A closer look:
Oof. I guess Eagles fans can't complain too much about dropped interceptions, given that a Keanu Neal dropped INT helped them win a Super Bowl. Anyway, the Football Team would eventually kick a game winning field goal and remain a half game in front of the Eagles in the wildcard hunt.
The Cardinals, Packers, Buccaneers, and Cowboys lead their respective divisions, so we'll omit them below in a snapshot of the wildcard race:
|NFC wildcard||Record||Conf record||GB|
|Rams (5 seed)||8-4||5-2||-|
|Football Team (6 seed)||6-6||5-3||-|
|49ers (7 seed)||6-6||5-5||-|
The 49ers hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Eagles, while the Football Team and Eagles still have two games to play against each other. A look at the remaining schedules for the Football Team, the 49ers, and the Eagles:
|14||Cowboys (8-4)||At Bengals (7-5)||BYE|
|15||At Eagles (6-7)||Falcons (5-7)||Football Team (6-6)|
|16||At Cowboys (8-4)||At Titans (8-4)||Giants (4-8)|
|17||Eagles (6-7)||Texans (2-10)||At Football Team (6-6)|
|18||At Giants (4-8)||At Rams (8-4)||Cowboys (8-4)|
|TOTAL||32-30 (.516)||30-30 (.500)||24-24 (.500)|
Needless to say, the Eagles' next game in Week 15 against the Football Team will be kind of a big deal.
For a more intense look at the Eagles' playoff scenarios, the great Deniz Selman:
If #Eagles finish 9-8, will clinch WC if at least 7 of these 10 things happen:— Deniz Selman (@denizselman33) December 6, 2021
CAR loses 1x
ATL loses 1x
NO loses 1x
NYG loses 1x
CHI loses 1x
WAS swept by Eagles OR loses at least 2 of their other 3
MIN loses 2x
SF loses 3x
LAR loses 4x
GB loses 5x
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