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December 06, 2021

A look at the Eagles' playoffs odds with four games remaining

Eagles NFL
120621NickSirianni Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports

Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni

After 13 games, the Philadelphia Eagles have a 6-7 record, one game back of the 6 and 7 seed placeholders, the 6-6 Washington Football Team and the 6-6 San Francisco 49ers. They are 2.5 games behind the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East.

The New York Times' playoff model gives the Eagles a 31 percent chance of making the playoffs at all, with a 3 percent chance of winning the NFC East, while fivethirtyeight.com is a little more optimistic, giving the Birds a 38 percent chance of making the tourney, with a 5 percent chance of winning the NFC East.

The NFC East

For the Eagles to have any chance of winning the NFC East, they would have to win all four of their remaining games against Washington, the Giants, Washington again, and the Cowboys. They would still be unable to catch the Cowboys if any of the following things occur:

  1. The Cowboys win any three games.
  2. The Cowboys win any two of their three remaining games against the Giants and Football Team. They have two games remaining against Washington, and one against the Giants.

There is another scenario in which the Eagles could lose specifically to the Giants and still win the division, but trust me when I say it's not worth your time to get too deep into the weeds on that one.

In other words, the Eagles would need an unlikely Dallas collapse down the stretch to have any chance of an NFC East crown, hence the 3 and 5 percent odds from the New York Times and fivethirtyeight, respectively.

The wildcard

The Eagles got help this weekend in the wildcard department with losses by the Vikings, 49ers, Falcons, and Saints, but remain on the outside looking in, for now. They would be sitting in the 7 seed spot if the Raiders' Trevon Moehrig could have held onto this INT late against Taylor Heinicke and Washington.

120621TrevonMoehrig

A closer look:

120621TrevonMoehrig2

Oof. I guess Eagles fans can't complain too much about dropped interceptions, given that a Keanu Neal dropped INT helped them win a Super Bowl. Anyway, the Football Team would eventually kick a game winning field goal and remain a half game in front of the Eagles in the wildcard hunt. 


MORE: McMullen: Buckle up, because nobody does a QB controversy like Eagles fans | Eagles snap count analysis: Week 13 at Jets | Handing out 10 awards from the Eagles-Jets game


The Cardinals, Packers, Buccaneers, and Cowboys lead their respective divisions, so we'll omit them below in a snapshot of the wildcard race:

NFC wildcard Record Conf record GB 
Rams (5 seed)8-4 5-2 
Football Team (6 seed) 6-6 5-3 
49ers (7 seed)6-6 5-5 
Eagles 6-7 4-4 0.5 
Vikings 5-7 4-4 
Panthers 5-7 3-5 
Falcons 5-7 2-6 
Saints 5-7 4-5 
Giants 4-8 3-5 
Bears 4-8 2-5 
Seahawks 4-8 2-6 
Lions 1-10-1 1-7 4.5 


The 49ers hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Eagles, while the Football Team and Eagles still have two games to play against each other. A look at the remaining schedules for the Football Team, the 49ers, and the Eagles:

Week Football Team 49ers Eagles 
14 Cowboys (8-4) At Bengals (7-5) BYE 
15 At Eagles (6-7) Falcons (5-7)Football Team (6-6) 
16 At Cowboys (8-4) At Titans (8-4)Giants (4-8) 
17 Eagles (6-7) Texans (2-10)At Football Team (6-6) 
18 At Giants (4-8) At Rams (8-4)Cowboys (8-4) 
TOTAL 32-30 (.516) 30-30 (.500) 24-24 (.500) 


Needless to say, the Eagles' next game in Week 15 against the Football Team will be kind of a big deal.

For a more intense look at the Eagles' playoff scenarios, the great Deniz Selman:

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