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April 13, 2017

A look at the Sixers and final 2017 NBA Draft Lottery odds

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On the final day of Tankapalooza 2017, quite a bit went right for your Philadelphia 76ers. The Sixers’ NBA Draft Lottery odds improved at season's end, as they lost all of their final eight games to capture the fourth-worst record, and more importantly, fourth-most ping-pong balls. Now that is coming through in the clutch.

Here are the results of all the games that affected the Sixers’ lottery odds from Wednesday night. Four out of five ain’t bad at all, especially when you consider that the race for fourth went as well as Bryan Colangelo could have (secretly) hoped.

•    Sixers lose to New York, 114-113 (good)
•    Orlando beats Detroit, 113-109 (very, very good)
•    Minnesota loses to Houston, 123-118 (bad)
•    Dallas beats Memphis, 100-93 (good)
•    Sacramento loses to Clippers, 115-95 (very good)

With the win in Game 82 over Detroit, the Magic fell back to the fifth-best odds. And Dallas’ loss coupled with a motivated Clippers team that was playing for home-court advantage in the first round helped Sacramento claim sole possession of eighth place.

Here are the 76ers’ lottery odds (via Lottery Bucket):

•    Sixers pick (with Kings pick swap): 14.7 percent chance at top pick, 15.1 percent chance at 2, 15.4 percent chance at 3, 9.9 percent chance at 4, 31.6 percent chance at 5, 12.5 percent chance at 6, 0.8 percent chance at 7

•    Lakers pick: 46.9 percent chance it stays Top-3 and doesn’t convey, 22.6 percent chance at 4, 26.5 percent chance at 5, and 4.0 percent chance at 6

Twitter user @eaglesdiehard went past the NBA Draft simulators and combined the two possible picks, breaking down the lottery odds of every single scenario for the Sixers:

And here are the 2017 NBA Draft Lottery odds for each team, focusing on their chances at the No. 1 overall pick or a Top-3 selection:

 Top-3 pick
No. 1 pick
Boston (via Brooklyn)
64.3%
25.0%
Phoenix
55.8%
19.9%
^^Lakers
46.9%
15.6%
Sixers
37.8%
11.9%
 Orlando29.1%
8.8%
^New York
18.3%
5.5%
 ^Minnesota18.3%
5.5%
 *Sacramento9.9%
2.8%
 Dallas6.1%
1.7%
 ^^Sacramento (via NO)
4.0%1.1%
 Charlotte2.9%
0.8%
Detroit
2.5%
0.7%
 Denver2.2%
0.6%
 Miami1.8%
0.5%

^Coin flip will determine order if neither team makes Top-3

^^Subject to Top-3 protection

*Subject to pick swap with Sixers

One final Tankathon spin


This type of scenario is certainly in play, but let’s try and throw our loyal readers a bone here.


That’s more like it. Dare to dream, Sixers fans, dare to dream.


Follow Rich on Twitter: @rich_hofmann

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