February 10, 2021
Kate Frese/for PhillyVoice
Carson Wentz talks to teammates before the Philadelphia Eagles game against the Dallas Cowboys.
For a while, there was a stretch where with each passing day, it felt like we were moving closer and closer to the Eagles trading quarterback Carson Wentz, with reports suggesting that not only was a deal "close" but that it was expected to happen in the "next couple of days."
That was Saturday. It is now Wednesday, and it's suddenly beginning to feel like a trade might actually be getting further away from us — or at least might not be as imminent as we were originally led to believe. But, still, we wait with baited breath to find out both where the 28-year-old QB will be dealt and what the Eagles will be getting in return, whether it's draft picks or some combination of picks and player(s).
— Matt Mullin (@matt_mullin) February 10, 2021
What seems to be holding up any potential deal at this point is the Eagles asking price. The early reports surrounding market for Wentz likely came from Howie Roseman, who is skilled at working the media to drum up interest in a player. And, for the most part, it seemed like it was working. But now, as Roseman reportedly holds firm with his asking price of two first-round picks, he risks teams dropping out of whatever bidding war he was able to kickstart.
All along it's been rumored that this trade was going to come down to one of two destinations for Wentz: the Indianapolis Colts, where he would be reunited with Frank Reich and Press Taylor, or the Chicago Bears, where he would be reunited with former QB coach John DeFilippo, now the QB coach and passing game coordinator in the Windy City. The Bears also brought the added wrinkle of a potential reunion with Nick Foles, or more likely, the chance that Foles could be back in Philly next year as part of the return for Wentz.
But the rumors have been plentiful, and as recently as Tuesday there was a potential mystery team (or teams?) in on the bidding for Wentz's services going forward. That's the good news for Roseman, assuming it's true and not just another rumor he's been spreading himself.
What's going to become a concern is if/when some of these teams start dropping out, or decide to address their quarterback situation elsewhere either because they're tired of waiting or because the asking price remains too high. And, that's what could be in danger of happening with the Bears, according to Brandon Robinson of Windy City Gridiron, the Bears SB Nation affiliate.
Robinson recently appeared on The Bear Report podcast and shed some light on the current mood in Chicago. Here's what he had to say, courtesy of Bleeding Green Nation.
[NOTE: The bold emphasis on certain phrases was done by BGN, so we left it.]
“So from what I understand, the Bears made an offer that was bigger than what the Colts had already offered. The Bears had previously offered two 2’s, so it was bigger than that. And they went back to the Colts, the Eagles did, and the Colts said they weren’t budging. And from what I understand, what the Colts had offered was somewhat similar to what the Bears had already offered, but maybe a little bit less. But the Eagles wanted Carson Wentz out of the NFC that much that they were able to maybe take a little bit less. So, what the Eagles have been trying to do is, they’re trying to negotiate, like, time and time again [through] every single reporter that will listen that they need more and they’re telling everybody two 1’s and that’s just not the case at all. And now the Bears are getting really impatient, which, I don’t blame them because they have to figure out what they’re doing at quarterback and they can’t go to the start of free agency because of the salary cap and where it’s going to put them. They checked in on Derek Carr, the Raiders want way too much. And so basically the Eagles are pretty much forced to deal Carson just to the Bears, but they want more, and I don’t blame them for wanting more. If I was the Eagles, I would stretch this out as far as possible, wait to see if Ryan Pace goes nuclear and ends up sending two 1’s, but it’s an interesting predicament.”
[…]
“I don’t think I’ve said this yet, and I want to include this: I think 100% [Nick] Foles will be in the deal because that is an important part of the deal because Carson will not want him in the same locker room. But, what I expect is … if I had to place it right now, it would be next year’s first, and this year’s third-round pick. Or … this year’s first and next year’s fourth, but it being conditional on a certain amount of games that Carson plays. I don’t think that the Bears get any picks from the Eagles besides maybe a sixth-round pick next year or something really, really miniscule. I don’t think any other players will be involved from the Bears. I don’t think any other players will be involved from the Eagles. I haven’t heard from any of my sources about [Zach] Ertz. I have from other people who have other sources about Ertz. But just from what I know, I haven’t heard his name or any other players. [h/t BGN]
That, however, hasn't stopped oddsmakers from being bullish on the Bears, perhaps because they're reading the same reports about Chicago having the top offer into the Eagles — even though there have also been reports that Wentz would prefer to go to Indy, while the Birds would prefer to trade him out of the NFC.
First up, let's take a look at the odds via SportsLine, who only listed three possible outcomes: the Bears, Colts and "Other." Interestingly enough, they also have the highest odds for the Bears, who check in here at even money.
Bears: Even
Colts: +120
Other: +900
The fact that "Other" is so high but includes 30 teams would suggest they really think Wentz is going to either the Colts or the Bears, which at this point seems like a safe(ish) bet.
But what about those "other" teams? Which ones would be most likely to land the former second-overall pick? Over at SportsBetting.ag, they believe it's the Broncos, Washington, and Panthers, followed by the Texans, Raiders and Patriots.
Bears: +100
Colts: +150
Broncos: +800
Football Team: +900
Panthers: +1200
Texans: +1600
Raiders: +1800
Patriots: +2000
49ers: +2000
Cowboys: +2500
Dolphins: +2500
Jets: +2500
That's pretty similar to the odds you can get at PointsBet (in Colorado), courtesy of The Action Network, where they have it slightly closer between the Bears and Colts. Five of their next six teams are also the same as above.
Bears: +115
Colts: +135
Broncos: +850
Washington: +1000
Panthers: +1300
Texans: +1600
Patriots: +1800
49ers: +1800
Raiders: +1800
Jets: +2500
Dolphins: +3000
Not everyone has the Bears as the favorites.
SportsBetting.com has the Colts as +150 favorites with the Bears not far behind at +200. They also have the Panthers, not the Broncos as the third most-likely team. Perhaps most interesting, however, is the sudden emergence of the Cowboys, who they have listed right alongside the Raiders and Patriots with somewhat reasonable odds. That being said, if the Eagles are hesitant to trade Wentz to another NFC Team, it's hard to imagine they'd send him to a division rival.
They also have all 31 of the other NFL teams listed, in case you wanted to know what the odds looked like beyond the top 10 or so...
Colts: +150
Bears: +200
Panthers: +500
Football Team: +800
Broncos: +1200
Jets: +1500
Texans: +1500
Cowboys: +2000
Raiders: +2000
Patriots: +2000
49ers: +2500
Dolphins: +2500
Jaguars: +2500
Saints: +3000
Browns: +4000
Giants: +4000
Vikings: +4000
Steelers: +5000
Falcons: +5000
Titans: +5000
Lions: +5000
Seahawks: +5000
Chargers: +7000
Bengals: +7000
Rams: +7000
Cardinals: +7000
Ravens: +10000
Buccaneers: +10000
Packers: +20000
Bills: +20000
Chiefs: +50000
It will certainly be interesting to see how this all plays out as the Wentz trade saga rolls on. Could a surprise team swoop in and make the Eagles an offer they can't refuse? Or will Carson Watch continue into next week? Stay tuned...
Follow Matt on Twitter: @matt_mullin
Like us on Facebook: PhillyVoice Sports
