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October 22, 2022

NLCS: Phillies-Padres Game 4 odds, lines and prop bets

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Phillies-NIck-Castellanos-NLCS-Padres-2022 Bill Streicher/USA Today Sports

Phillies outfielder Nick Castellanos.

Imagine someone telling you three weeks ago that the Phillies would be two games from a World Series berth. It was an unfathomable scenario, yet here we are, as Philadelphia becomes the center of the sports universe. 

The Phils are up 2-1 in their NLCS matchup with the San Diego Padres. The Fightins could clinch the National League pennant in South Philly this weekend if they win Game 4 on Saturday and Game 5 on Sunday. The Phils have advanced to the World Series five times in the NLCS era (1969 on after widespread expansion). What a world.

Let's look at some odds, lines and notes for the NLCS... 

• Given that 2-1 series lead and the fact that the Phils currently possess home-field advantage, DraftKings Sportsbook has the Phillies -215 to win the pennant. 215, huh? That feels like a sign. 

• For Game 4 on Saturday night, the Phillies' run line is +1.5. That likely has to do with it being a "bullpen game" that'll see Bailey Falter starting and making his first ever postseason appearance. No pressure! The Phillies' moneyline is -115. The Padres are -105 to win outright. 

• DraftKings Sportsbook is offering a "Schwarbomb Boost" for Game 4. Bettors can get a 33 percent profit boost on a parlay that has Kyle Schwarber recording 2+ total bases and 1+ RBI and Phillies ML. The boost takes the odds of the same-game parlay to +532. 

• I've never used BetMGM, so I have a free $50 bet on there. I'm putting it on a parlay of Bryce Harper to homer and the Phillies to win at +625. It'd pay out $312.50 total. Tail me at your own risk!

• Okay, here's a bit of personal gambling history. In March 2017, I was sitting in Taproom on 19th in South Philadelphia when it was announced that the Eagles signed Alshon Jeffery. The lines had yet to change on the off-shore book I was using and the Birds' Super Bowl odds were +4000. I threw $25 on it, as I've done previously for so many dumb bets. Come February 2018, I was fresh out of college and had a cool grand to spend as I painted the town midnight green in the ensuing weeks. 

I made a similar wager this summer. I was sitting in Garage Fishtown on June 11 watching a Phillies-Diamondbacks game. Joe Girardi had been fired earlier in the month and the Phils were improbably on a nine-game win streak. I threw a low-stakes bet together: I bet $11 on an Eagles Super Bowl champions/Phillies World Series champions parlay. The odds were +104300. That idiotic bet could turn $11 into $11,484. Well, the Birds are undefeated and the Phils are potentially headed to the Fall Classic:

The current cash out is $314.84. Hard pass. My buddy Taha said it to me well when I was discussing the wager with him on Friday night: "$300 isn't going to change your life. $11,000 might."

I'm letting it ride!

As always, bet responsibly!

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