March 21, 2024

What can we learn about the Phillies from fantasy baseball projections, rankings?

Where do the top Phillies hitters and pitchers rank as the regular season approaches?

By Evan Macy
PhillyVoice Staff

Phillies-Bryce-Harper-fantasy-spring-training_032124_USAT

Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA Today Sports

If Bryce Harper stays heathy, he could have a big year offensively.

Whether you play fantasy baseball, daily fantasy, or are just a diehard fan, there is a lot to be learned from how the Phillies' top players are projected to perform during the 2024 season.

There are 10 or 11 Phillies who are ranked among the top 100 pitchers or hitters respectively this season. Just how are these and other Phillies players valued by statistical gurus and fantasy projections?

Looking at the rankings below might provide a window into how exactly fans should set expectations for individual performances from players in the lineup.

Here's a look at some key rankings and stat projections from the top fantasy sites in baseball (for our purposes, we'll use ESPN, FantasyPros, FanGraphs and Yahoo!):

Trea Turner, SS

Rankings

Outlet	Hitters	Shortstop
ESPN	21	3
Fantasy Pros	12	2
FanGraphs	14	3
Yahoo!	10	3

Projected stats

Outlet	BA	Other stats
ESPN	.288	25 HR, 84 RBI, 29 SB
Fantasy Pros	.281	23 HR, 84 RBI, 28 SB
FanGraphs	.284	24 HR, 86 RBI, 27 SB

Analysis

After projections prior to last season had Turner garnering MVP-like statistics, his slow start to 2023 definitely impacted this year's rankings. He's the consensus No. 2 or 3 shortstop in baseball but there seems to be no real agreement on where he ranks among the top hitters in the league. Either way he's a first round pick.

Bryce Harper, 1B

Rankings

Outlet	Hitters	First base
ESPN	23	4
Fantasy Pros	16	3
FanGraphs	18	4
Yahoo	15	3

Projected stats

Outlet	BA	Other stats
ESPN	.291	30 HR, 89 RBI
Fantasy Pros	.283	29 HR, 92 RBI
FanGraphs	.282	30 HR, 94 RBI

Analysis

If you go by FanGraph's optimistic projections, a 30 homer, 94 RBI campaign could have him in award races this season. Here's hoping his back holds up enough for him to tally those stats.

MORE: Can Johan Rojas make the roster?

Zack Wheeler, SP

Rankings

Outlet	Pitcher
ESPN	2
Fantasy Pros	3
FanGraphs	3
Yahoo	3

Projected stats

Outlet	Stats
ESPN	194 IP, 3.29 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
Fantasy Pros	189.1 IP, 322 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
FanGraphs	196 IP, 3.58 ERA, 5.0 WAR

Analysis

The entire league is extremely high on Wheeler, who is one of the top pitchers off the board in fantasy drafts this month. He should be in the Cy Young race.

Aaron Nola, SP

Rankings

Outlet	Pitcher
ESPN	14
Fantasy Pros	13
FanGraphs	19
Yahoo	11

Projected stats

Outlet	Stats
ESPN	191 IP, 3.77 ERA, 1.09 WHIP
Fantasy Pros	189.1 IP, 3.83 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
FanGraphs	196 IP, 3.83 ERA, 4.8 WAR

Analysis

Nola has been an innings-eating monster but the projections are modest on him — with middle of the rotation numbers expected by the baseball experts.

Kyle Schwarber, OF/DH

Rankings

Outlet	Hitters	Outfield
ESPN	30	10
Fantasy Pros	47	19
FanGraphs	33	13
Yahoo	47	19

Projected stats

Outlet	BA	Other stats
ESPN	.216	44 HR, 99 RBI
Fantasy Pros	.223	40 HR, 98 RBI
FanGraphs	.221	40 HR, 94 RBI

Analysis

Schwarber had a historic season in 2023, hitting below .200 while finishing in second in the National League in homers. He's the Phillies leadoff man and will see a ton of at bats this year, and even as the No. 1 hitter he's interestingly expected to have close to 100 RBI.

MORE: Phillies will face Braves' Spencer Strider on Opening Day

J.T. Realmuto, C

Rankings

Outlet	Hitters	Catcher
ESPN	59	5
Fantasy Pros	50	2
FanGraphs	72	5
Yahoo	44	2

Projected stats

Outlet	BA	Other stats
ESPN	.258	20 HR, 70 RBI
Fantasy Pros	.255	19 HR, 67 RBI
FanGraphs	.253	18 HR, 68 RBI

Analysis

Realmuto is no longer being anointed as the BCIP (best catcher in baseball) but he's still in the top five and is a huge asset for a fantasy team due to how often he plays and how bad catchers are in the league overall.

Jose Alvarado, RP

Rankings

Outlet	Pitcher
ESPN	OVR 69
Fantasy Pros	OVR 74
FanGraphs	RP 9
Yahoo	RP 23

Projected stats

Outlet	Stats
ESPN	46 IP, 3.33 ERA, 22 SV
Fantasy Pros	69 IP, 3.19 ERA, 21 SV
FanGraphs	74 IP, 3.31 ERA, 22 SV

Analysis

Alvarado is really the only noteworthy fantasy reliever for the Phillies this year. He's ranked as the 25th best relief pitcher on ESPN, the 23rd best on Yahoo and — very interestingly — the ninth best via FanGraphs. He may not tally a ton of saves but he should be one of the Phils most leaned-on bullpen arms.

Nick Castellanos, OF

Rankings

Outlet	Hitters	Outfield
ESPN	70	28
Fantasy Pros	60	22
FanGraphs	54	22
Yahoo	58	21

Projected stats

Outlet	BA	Other stats
ESPN	.267	28 HR, 96 RBI
Fantasy Pros	.260	24 HR, 85 RBI
FanGraphs	.259	24 HR, 88 RBI

Analysis

A season with 28 homers and 96 RBI, as ESPN seems to be projecting, could earn him a Silver Slugger.

Bryson Stott, 2B

Rankings

Outlet	Overall	2B
ESPN	75	11
Fantasy Pros	65	10
FanGraphs	84	11
Yahoo	72	11

Projected stats

Outlet	BA	Other stats
ESPN	.268	14 HR, 63 RBI
Fantasy Pros	.265	13 HR, 64 RBI
FanGraphs	.264	13 HR, 66 RBI

Analysis

Some Phillies fans and experts think Stott could break out in 2024. The fantasy sites do not.

Alec Bohm, 3B

Rankings

Outlet	Hitters	3B
ESPN	91	14
Fantasy Pros	101	16
FanGraphs	101	13
Yahoo	83	14

Projected stats

Outlet	BA	Other stats
ESPN	.279	15 HR, 83 RBI
Fantasy Pros	.274	17 HR, 76 RBI
FanGraphs	.274	17 HR, 77 RBI

Analysis

Bohm's defense has improved and he has always been able to hit the ball hard. But the power numbers have been modest. If he can get into the mid 20s in home runs he might leapfrog to a top 60 pick in 2025.

Other pitchers

Rankings

Pitcher	Outlet, rank
Matt Strahm	ESPN: 94
Cris Sanchez	FantasyPros: 97
Ranger Suarez	FanGraphs: 81
Orion Kerkering	Yahoo!: RP 65

Analysis

There aren't a ton of other pitchers worth drafting. Strahm is surprisingly among ESPN's top 100 arms, perhaps due to his ability to be the 6th starter if the Phillies are in a pinch. FantasyPros has Sanchez as their No. 3 Phillies pitcher while FanGraphs prefers Suarez.