November 03, 2022
For the gambling enthusiasts, here are my Week 9 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Eagles (-13.5) at Texans: I could point you to our "five matchups to watch," and get into detail about how the Texans can't stop the run, or that that they have major holes on their roster at this spot or that spot. On the flipside, I could also point out that the Eagles have a road game on a short week, and that maybe this matchup has the makings of a "trap game" ahead of a mini-bye.
We probably don't need to overthink it. The Texans are arguably the worst team in the NFL, and the Eagles, as 13.5-point favorites, are one of the best, and they should win comfortably, as they have done all season long.
Packers (-3.5) at Lions: I was very tempted to take the Lions to outright beat this reeling Packers team led by the blame-shifting, dishonest Aaron Rodgers, but then I remembered that hitching your wagon to Dan Campbell is an awful idea. 2021 NFL coaching hires:
Chargers (-3.5) at Falcons: Speaking of the 2021 NFL head coach hiring cycle, Arthur Smith has done a lot more with a lot less in Atlanta than Brandon Staley has done in Los Angeles with this loaded Chargers roster. The Falcons are overachieving and as usual the Chargers are underachieving.
Dolphins (-5) at Bears: With Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith gone, name as many Bears defensive starters as you can. How'd you do?
Panthers at Bengals (-7.5): Just when the Bengals were looking like they were getting their act together offensively, they lay an egg on Monday night against the Browns. Maybe Ja'Marr Chase is the real star there. The Panthers have actually been a little frisky lately, but the Bengals are an easy pick.
Colts at Patri*ts (-5.5): I don't like this Patri*ts roster, but I do trust Bill Belichick in any game against a young, not super gifted quarterback like Sam Ehlinger.
Bills (-12.5) at Jets: In an NFL this season that is devoid of great teams, the Bills have played a pretty stacked schedule, given the circumstances:
There's an argument to be made that Zach Wilson is the worst quarterback they will have faced this season.
Vikings (-3.5) at Commanders: I'm a sucker for taking road teams that are clearly better, and the line looks lower than it should be.
Raiders (-1.5) at Jaguars: The Eagles' coaching search in 2021 came down to Nick Sirianni and Josh McDaniels, who is now the head coach of the disappointing 2-5 Raiders. I guess they made the right choice.
Seahawks at Cardinals (-2): The Cardinals have been better since they got DeAndre Hopkins back from suspension, but this is still a very uninspiring team, while the Seahawks consistently bring it every week.
Rams at Buccaneers (-3): Aaron Donald vs. the interior of the Bucs' offensive line is unsettling, but of these two failing star teams, the Rams have much bigger concerns.
Titans at Chiefs (-12.5): The Titans didn't want to let Malik Willis throw last week, so they let Derrick Henry run the ball all day. That approach was good enough to beat the Texans. It won't work against the Chiefs. There's a chance Ryan Tannehill could be back for this game, I suppose. But, you know, give me the Chiefs regardless.
Ravens (-2.5) at Saints: The Saints shut out the Raiders last week, which I assume is why this line isn't bigger. I'll gladly lay less than a field goal on a top 3 AFC team over a bottom half NFC team.
Teams on their bye week: Cowboys, Giants, 49ers, Browns, Broncos, Steelers.
• Last 8 years, ATS: 322-266-13 (0.547)
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