April 16, 2026
Kyle Ross/Imagn Images
Aaron Nola has looked better this season, but hasn't been good enough.
The Phillies seem like they're taking two steps back for every step forward this season.
Below .500 and facing obvious issues hitting and pitching so far, they've been blown apart more times than they've commanded confidence.
A lot of baseball remains, but there are some really interesting themes and statistics that can help explain what's going on. Here are five thoughts about the state of the 8-10 Phillies right now:
In every year during the Phillies' recent run of success, their starting pitching has been a major reason why. Zack Wheeler is still working his way back, but the team on paper should have the depth to hold up without him.
They have not held up without him.
Through 18 games played, which is nearly four times through the starting rotation, only Cris Sánchez (2.01) and Andrew Painter (3.77) have ERAs under four.
These stats on Jesús Luzardo are pretty troubling:
Some concerning Jesús Luzardo stats:
— Jack Fritz (@JackFritzWIP) April 16, 2026
1. Opponents are hitting .467 with an OPS over 1.300 when they swing first pitch against Luzardo
2. His fastball is getting smoked right now. The average against his four-seamer is .348 and against his sinker it’s .375.
3. He’s falling…
The starting five as a whole has a 5.11 ERA, the third worst in the majors. For some context, their starters had a 3.53 ERA last year, the best in the National League with the exact same starters (minus Painter). The starters have combined for 112 hits allowed, which is the most in MLB. Which makes their .296 batting average against understandably the highest by a wide margin in the sport.
Things are looking really bad, on paper at least, but there are some signs of life...
We mentioned Sánchez and his 2.01 ERA this season. The Cy Young runner up is already third in the majors in pitching WAR and third in total strikeouts. That's something to build on. It's important to have a slump buster — though if the Phillies are continually in a slump when it's Sánchez' turn to pitch that's a sign of a bad baseball team.
However, the rest of the staff does have some hope. There appears to be some significant bad luck surrounding the balls put into play by opposing bats. Some portion of the Phillies starters' league-high batting average against is explained by their league-high.324 BABIP (batting average on balls in play).
The rule of averages suggests this will revert to a lower number as more balls get put into play. The staff also has a very good strikeout total, strikeout-to-walk ratio and HR rate. Numbers to support the theory that the pitching has been unlucky are there, we'll just have to see if it turns around.
Kyle Schwarber has six home runs (fourth most in the NL). He also has a top-six strikeout rate and a top-20 walk rate. No hitter in the National League has had more true outcomes (strikeouts, walks and homers) than Schwarber, at 60.8%, an increase over his typically high TTO number from the past few years.
This is who Schwarber is — the Phillies knew that when they inked him to a $150 million extension — but his 29 strikeouts are also the second most in the NL. He's simply gotta put his bat on the ball more.
Of the 13 Phillies hitters who've come to the plate this year, only five of them — J.T. Realmuto, Brandon Marsh, Adolis García, Schwarber and Edmundo Sosa – have positive wins above replacement. Having a negative WAR this early into a season isn't easy to do, but half a dozen Phillies have managed to do so.
Only four hitters have what could be considered a decent slugging percentage — Schwarber, Sosa, Marsh and Bryce Harper. And every regular hitter is already in double figures for strikeouts. The mundane hitting seems to be going around.
Things aren't going to be easy for the Phillies the next two weeks. Two relatively big series against the Braves, at home and then away, with a trip to Chicago to face the Cubs, who just embarrassed the Phillies, in between are ahead on the ledger.
The Braves are 12-7, and have the lead in the NL East by three games, 3.5 over Philly. So it's possible that the Phillies could be anywhere from nine games behind to in the lead for the division 10 days from now on April 26. It's a pretty important stretch for late April.
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