March 15, 2024
Vincent Carchietta/USA Today
What expectations should Philadelphia have for Saquon Barkley?
Back in 2018, the New York Giants selected Saquon Barkley with the second-overall pick in the NFL Draft. It was the highest a running back had been picked in 12 years. The positional value there was way off for a running back on a Giants team in a complete rebuild, but it was immediately clear that Barkley had the goods as an NFL pro.
In his first season, Barkley ran away with the NFL Rookie of the Year Award and led the league with 2,028 yards from scrimmage. Barkley faced the Eagles in Week 6 that year on Thursday Night Football. He was electric. He ran for 130 yards on a whopping 10 yards per carry while also adding 99 more receiving yards. I remember watching it and thinking, "Is this the best game I've ever seen a running back play? He can do literally everything." As Linkin Park would say, in the end, it didn't even matter as the Birds crushed the Giants 34-13.
If you had the best running back in the league having the best game of his young career and you still lost by three touchdowns, how important is a running back truly?
The Eagles have been putting that to the test for nearly the last decade. Undrafted rookie Josh Adams led the team in rushing when they were reigning Super Bowl champions with just 511 yards. The Eagles used a second-round pick on Miles Sanders in 2019. He never became one of the game's great backs, but he was solid enough and put up good numbers in the Eagles' Super Bowl year in 2022. The Birds had no issue letting him walk in free agency though, acquiring D'Andre Swift through trade to replace him. Swift also had a good, but not truly great, season in midnight green that started on fire in Weeks 2 and 3 before he cooled off. Once more, the Eagles had no issue allowing their incumbent back to explore the open market.
In a wholly uncharacteristic move this week though, the Eagles inked Barkley to a three-year deal worth $37 million. It flies in the face of everything known about general manager Howie Roseman's team-building process. Barkley wasn't enough to elevate a sad sack of a Giants roster to true championship contention. If he's coming to an Eagles team with a core that's already been to the Super Bowl and has "parade-or-bust" aspirations, however, his potential impact becomes an entirely different equation.
In his introductory press conference at the NovaCare Complex on Thursday, Barkley said, "I feel like I'm a special player. I feel like I have a lot left."
Barkley noted that after an off year in 2023. In 14 games, his yards per carry dipped to 3.9. That was after rushing for 4.4 yards per attempt on a playoff Giants team in 2022 and going for 5.0 yards per pop as a rookie. Barkley is entering his age-27 season. That's historically a point of no return for most running backs. Is Barkley still special enough to overcome the age, durability and usage (1,201 career carries) issues?
There are three players worth comparing Barkley to here. Sanders, Swift and the 49ers' Christian McCaffrey.
It wasn't too long ago that McCaffrey was racking up injuries (he played just 10 games total across 2020 and 2021) and dwindling on a middling franchise in Carolina that relied too heavily on him. Sound familiar? He went to a star-studded team in San Francisco and exploded, winning Offensive Player of the Year honors in 2023. That's the formula the Eagles want to replicate with Barkley.
Can Barkley rebound like McCaffrey? Can the before and after of Sanders as an Eagle showcase how much the Birds help their RBs?
Running back is a position very much dependent on offensive linemen and the passing game to keep defenses honest. New York did Barkley no favors with Daniel Jones and that crew. ESPN's run block win rate can provide a bit of clarity on the success of offensive line units.
The Eagles, unsurprisingly, were No. 1 in run block win rate in 2023. The Giants? 31st. Yikes. Jason Kelce might be gone, but the Birds still have a few elite offensive linemen in Jordan Mailata, Landon Dickerson and Lane Johnson. They will do wonders for Barkley. That 3.8 yards per carry is going to jump big time. Add in the fact that Jalen Hurts brings versatility to the offense when throwing to the likes of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, plus his own abilities as a runner, and Barkley is entering the best system he's ever seen in his football playing days.
In 2022, the Eagles were second in the league in run block win rate. Sanders then ran for 1,269 yards and 11 touchdowns on an impressive 4.8 yards per carry. Sanders did not resemble that Pro Bowl back at all this past season in Carolina. He rushed for only 432 yards in 16 games on a paltry 3.3 yards per carry. The Panthers' run block win rate in 2023 with Sanders in town? 30th. That tells the story!
Nothing personal, but if Swift had a down year in Chicago after signing with the Bears, no one would bat an eye because of the huge difference in quarterback and o-line play.
The Eagles can make an above-average running back look very good. What happens when you add a player with the talent to be the best back in the league to the best run-blocking offensive line in the league? The Eagles haven't had that since the peak of LeSean McCoy in 2013. The formula is there for a McCaffrey-like or perhaps an even Shady-like season from Barkley.
The aging curve is working against Barkley, but everything else should allow him to be as "special" as he's ever been.
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