April 10, 2016
Anytime new Titans general manager Jon Robinson has been asked this offseason about the possibility of trading the No. 1 overall pick, he has gone out of his way to note that (A) the Titans would consider it, and (B) that teams are calling.
Clearly, Tennessee is open to moving out of that spot if they can acquire a suitable package of draft picks.
In recent weeks, the Eagles have been mentioned as a team who could possibly have interest in moving to the No. 1 spot to draft a quarterback, most commonly thought to be North Dakota State's Carson Wentz. Of course, Philly isn't the only team that does not currently have a long-term solution at quarterback, so it may have competition. Other teams speculated to be vying for the No. 1 pick are the Browns, Cowboys, 49ers, Eagles, Rams, and Jets.
If you look at the "draft value chart," it will tell you the No. 1 overall pick is worth 3000 points. While the chart is used as a guide for what draft pick position is worth, because the quality of picks at the top of the draft vary greatly from year to year, it's a terrible tool when attributing value of the No. 1 overall pick. It does, however, become more relevant once you get deeper into the first round, through until the end of the draft.
With that in mind, let's take a look at the draft pick ammo each "QB-needy" team has heading into the 2016 NFL Draft. The column all the way to the right notes the total combined value of each team's tradable picks (compensatory picks excluded), per the draft value chart.
| Team | No. of picks | Picks | Value: Non-comp picks |
| Browns | 10 (3 comp) | 2, 32, 65, 99, 138 (comp), 141, 172 (comp), 173 (comp), 176, 223 | 3618 |
| Cowboys | 9 (4 comp) | 4, 34, 67, 101, 135 (comp), 189, 212 (comp), 216 (comp), 217 (comp) | 2727 |
| 49ers | 12 (4 comp) | 7, 37, 68, 105, 133 (comp), 142, 145, 174 (comp), 178, 207, 211 (comp), 213 (comp) | 2461 |
| Eagles | 9 | 8, 77, 79, 100, 153, 164, 188, 233, 251 | 1976 |
| Rams | 6 | 15, 43, 45, 76, 110, 190 | 2269 |
| Jets | 6 | 20, 51, 83, 118, 235, 241 | 1477 |
Let's analyze, one team at a time:
In the 2015 NFL Draft, the Titans seemed content to simply take whichever of the two quarterbacks the Buccaneers did not draft. If the Bucs took Jameis Winston, they'd draft Marcus Mariota. If the Bucs took Mariota, they'd just take Winston. The Browns could certainly be of the same mindset with Carson Wentz and Jared Goff. If a team were to trade up and select Goff, they could just take Wentz. If someone traded up to take Wentz, they could just take Goff.
However, if the Browns felt very strongly about one quarterback over another, the only way to be 100 percent sure they get their guy is to trade up one spot to secure him. The Titans could squeeze an extra pick out of the Browns, and still draft whoever their top non-quarterback is on their draft board.
Clearly, the Browns would have the easiest path to the No. 1 overall pick if landing a specific quarterback is that important to them.
Also to note: In this scenario, the Titans could opt to then trade back twice, from pick No. 2, and acquire even more picks from a team looking to grab the leftover quarterback between Wentz or Goff.
Tony Romo is going to turn 36 next week. His collarbone is made of papier-mâché, and his back is made of dandelions. If the Cowboys are delusional about their chances to compete for a Super Bowl this year, they could opt for a positional player who they think can help immediately. Otherwise, they could try to trade up for Romo's eventual successor.
Like the Browns, the Cowboys are in an excellent position to trade up to pick No. 1 if they have their sights set specifically on Wentz or Goff. They have nine total picks including the No. 4 overall pick, and five total picks in the first four rounds. It should be noted that that four of the Cowboys' nine picks are compensatory picks, which cannot be traded. However, their first four picks -- one in each of the first four rounds -- are eligible to be dealt. With their added compensatory picks, they may feel more comfortable dealing away an extra regular pick or two to get their guy, while still being able to have a full draft haul.
From the Titans' perspective, should the Cowboys trade up to pick No. 1 for a quarterback, and then another quarterback is picked second overall, the Titans would still be able to pick whoever is leftover between Ole Miss OT Laremy Tunsil or Florida State CB Jalen Ramsey at pick No. 4. And even if both quarterbacks don't go within the first three picks, another elite prospect in UCLA LB Myles Jack will still be sitting there.
In other words, the Titans would love to have the Browns and/or Cowboys interested in their pick, more so than any of the other teams.
The Niners are loaded with draft pick capital. They have 12 total picks – a 1, 2, 3, two 4's, three 5's, and four 6's. Four of those are comp picks, as the chart above shows, but in terms of ammo in numbers, the 49ers are better positioned to move up than any other team if the Titans are looking to add draft picks in bulk.
It should be noted that in Chip Kelly's three years in Philly, the Eagles never once drafted a player who didn't play for a school in a big college conference, as Kelly preferred to see prospects play against great competition:
Chip's picks (even late rds) were all players from schools in big conferences - why I'd bet against him liking Wentz pic.twitter.com/b8hUwVcUME
— Jimmy Kempski (@JimmyKempski) April 8, 2016
The takeaway from that -- He may not have any interest in a small school prospect like Wentz.
The Eagles have nine total picks, all of which they can trade (none of them are compensatory picks). However, they do not have a second-round pick, which was of course dealt away by Kelly for Sam Bradford. If the Eagles were to move up to the No. 1-overall spot, the Titans could demand that the Eagles include their first round pick next year as part of any deal.
The Eagles do not have anywhere near the same kind of 2016 draft assets as the Browns, Cowboys, or 49ers.
The Rams only have six total picks, however, they have an extra second-round pick courtesy of the Eagles. As a result, the total value of the Rams' picks, according to the draft value chart, exceeds the Eagles'.
However, trading up from pick No. 15 to pick No. 1 is a loooong way to go, and with only six picks, how comfortable would the Rams be trading the bulk of their 2016 picks for one player?
The Jets are in the same situation the Eagles were in a year ago, in that they have the lowest pick among all the teams who did not make the playoffs the previous year. They won't get from pick No. 20 to pick No. 1. Forget it.
In summary, I'd rank the "QB-needy" teams' 2016 draft ammo like so:
In other words, I'd rank them in the exact order of their draft position. #Analysis.
