November 04, 2020
It's no surprise that there has been a lot of talk involving Phillies free agent catcher J.T. Realmuto already this offseason. Depending on where you look, he's either the first- or second-ranked player available in free agency and will reportedly have several suitors as he looks to become the highest-paid catcher in baseball history.
But there are nearly as many outlets ranking him No. 1 overall as there are predicting he'll return to Philadelphia, perhaps signaling the Phillies could be more hesitant to spend on the position this offseason when they still need to make major upgrades elsewhere.
Over at ESPN.com, they don't have a prediction for where he'll sign, but they do have Realmuto ranked No. 1 overall, and predict that he'll land a 5-year, $110 million contract, which would set a new record for an MLB catcher's salary.
Realmuto is at the top of the market and could be impacted the most by the as-yet-unknown market forces, depending on how owners project revenues and attendance for 2021 and beyond and how they manage the associated risks. The standard for a free-agent catcher contract was set last winter when Yasmani Grandal got $73 million ($18.3M AAV) for four years while about one and a half years older than Realmuto and with a comparable recent track record. Five years on merit makes sense for Realmuto, and a $20 million AAV would seem like a reasonable spot for earnest negotiations to begin. The free-agent catcher records are five years, $82 million guaranteed money (Russell Martin in 2015) and Grandal's $18.3M AAV. I'd expect Realmuto's camp not to settle for anything short of topping those marks, but it's hard to say right now by how much since a number of clubs don't have set 2021 payrolls yet. [espn.com]
That's a big number, and might scare John Middleton and Andy MacPhail off if they're looking to stay below the luxury tax threshold. So, if the Phillies miss out on re-signing Realmuto, where might they look at catcher — assuming they have plans beyond naming Andrew Knapp the starter?
Over at MLB Trade Rumors, where they have Realmuto ranked second behind George Springer, they believe that the 29-year-old catcher will sign with the Mets for an even larger number than ESPN predicts: $125 million over five years. But in the same list, they also predict the Phillies will land the second best catcher on the market, James McCann, No. 16 overall on their free agent list.
16. James McCann – Phillies. Two years, $20MM. After J.T. Realmuto, McCann is the best catcher on the free agent market this winter. The 30-year-old spent four years as the Tigers’ starting catcher, topping out at a 94 wRC+. Facing a potential $3.5MM salary through arbitration, Detroit chose not to tender McCann a contract in November 2018. The White Sox snagged him as a free agent on a $2.5MM salary. Surprisingly, McCann made the All-Star team for the Sox in 2019, posting a 109 wRC+ and prompting the club to tender him a contract (with a $1.9MM raise) afterward despite the club already having Yasmani Grandal in tow. The decision paid off, as McCann posted a stellar 144 wRC+ in 111 plate appearances.
Defensively, McCann has long been known for shutting down the running game. Pitch framing had been a weakness, but McCann found improvement by working with Jerry Narron last offseason and was able to demonstrate 88th percentile framing in his 245 2/3 innings behind the dish this year. Overall, McCann has raised his game enough in his time with the White Sox that a three-year deal might be available to him in free agency. The feeling here is that two is likelier, with the Phillies, Mets, Cardinals, Marlins, Brewers, and Yankees among those who could vie for his services. [mlbtraderumors.com]
They also have the Phillies, who currently have the 13th-best World Series odds heading into hot stove season according to TheLines.com, landing two other Top 50 free agents this winter, but you'll have to click over to find out who they are.
It's been an extremely quiet start to free agency — and there's, you know, something a little more important going on in our country at the moment — but as we do every day throughout the offseason, we'll keep you covered with the latest news and rumors surrounding anything related to the Phillies (and the rest of the league) in our live tracker.
This content and the links provided are sponsored by thelines.com and playpennsylvania.com, PhillyVoice.com’s Official 2020/2021 Betting Odds Partner, independently created by PhillyVoice.
Follow Matt on Twitter: @matt_mullin
Like us on Facebook: PhillyVoice Sports
