March 11, 2024
The Phillies appear to be taking the same approach in spring training as their hungry (for hot dogs?) fans are: World Series or bust.
In back-to-back seasons, the Phillies made deep and loud postseason runs but neither has yielded a third ever championship.
Philly currently carries +1500 odds to win the World Series in 2023, the sixth best odds via FanDuel. They are second to win the NL East (+330) behind the Braves but are overwhelmingly favored to make the playoffs at -250.
Before the team hits the field against the Reds at the end of March to open their 2024 campaign, we're going to take a deep dive into each positional group.
Up today is the outfield...
The Phillies' outfield didn't take its true shape until late last summer, with two moves helping everything fall into place.
The first Bryce Harper learning how to play first then getting cleared to return to the field, which took Kyle Schwarber out of left field and into a regular DH role.
The second was the call-up of Johan Rojas straight from Double-A ball to get his athleticism immediately out there in center. The payoff showed both immediately:
WHAT A DEBUT FOR JOHAN ROJAS WOW WOW WOW pic.twitter.com/Kj1zvm6qR9
— NBC Sports Philadelphia (@NBCSPhilly) July 15, 2023
the silence - the explosion
— jaiden (@steph_turkey) October 13, 2023
rojas catch with no commentators and just crowd noise pic.twitter.com/vM43M1dDwl
And at the plate, Castellanos hit at an All-Star rate into the middle of the summer, then just couldn't miss in the divisional series against Atlanta; Rojas held up at the bottom of the order with a .302 batting average and the walk-off to punch the Phils' postseason ticket; Marsh improved to a career-best average (.277) and OPS (.829) while showing a bit of pop, too, with 12 home runs and 25 doubles; and even Pache and Cave had their moments throughout last season in backup roles.
Of course, like the rest of the 2023 Phils, things stalled out in the NLCS against the Diamondbacks. The Phillies were chasing pitches outside the zone constantly and Castellanos contributed heavily to that, Rojas was overmatched at the plate once the bright postseason lights hit, and Marsh, while faring decently, still had to figure out how to hit lefties.
All of that, among other factors, stopped the Phillies a game short of a second straight NL pennant.
But like with most of the roster for 2024, the Phillies went through the winter and into the spring prepared to run it back with the group that they had, anticipating that everyone will take a step forward, and maybe with an addition or two.
In the case of the outfield, the addition is 35-year old Whit Merrifield, a steady hitter and two-time All-Star for years in Kansas City, and then an All-Star again this past season with Toronto on the way to their postseason bid, which ended quickly in the Wild Card round against Minnesota.
Signed to a one-year $8 million deal last month, Merrifield boasts a career line of .284/.330/.420 and can move throughout the outfield and to second base if needed.
He'll be right behind Rojas, Marsh, and Castellanos – alongside Pache and Cave on the bench – who each have their own to-do list for 2024.
Rojas put on some heavy muscle this offseason and has to learn to be more disciplined at the plate to stay up with the big-league club. A triple-A stint in the minors, which he bypassed last season, remains a possibility for him to continue developing if he shows that he's not quite ready yet by Opening Day.
Castellanos is out to work on his plate discipline, too, cutting down on his tendency to chase while still keeping the aggressive power that makes him the player that he is.
And Marsh is recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery underwent last month, looking to be ready for Opening Day while being out to prove that he can get the lefty-hitting riddle solved.
Either way, Castellanos should be able to give the club around 20-25 homers at minimum, Marsh could very well continue his upward trajectory since arriving to Philadelphia at the 2022 trade deadline – much like the rest of the daycare between shortstop Bryson Stott and third baseman Alec Bohm – and if Rojas proves he isn't ready out of the spring, Merrifield is already established and right there ready to go out of the gate. Marsh can slide back over into center, Merrifield can take the open spot, and Rojas can always come back up later after a run of minor league at-bats to sort things out.
On paper, it's a solid outfield depth chart all things considered. Maybe not the outright best in baseball, but some dependable gloves, for sure, and perhaps some bats that could really stand to rake this season.
As a quick look by the numbers, each of the outfielder's 2023 numbers:
| 2023 | G/PA | BA/OBP/SLG | HR/2B | BB/SO | SB |
| Nick Castellanos, RF | 157 / 671 | .272/.311/.476 | 29 / 37 | 36 / 185 | 11 |
| Johan Rojas, C | 59 / 164 | .302/.342/.430 | 2 / 9 | 5 / 42 | 14 |
| Brandon Marsh, LF | 133 / 472 | .277/.372/.458 | 12 / 25 | 59 / 144 | 10 |
| *Whit Merrifield, OF | 145 / 592 | .272/.318/.382 | 11 / 27 | 36 / 101 | 26 |
| Cristian Pache, OF | 48 / 95 | .238/.319/.417 | 2 / 7 | 10 / 27 | 2 |
| Jake Cave, OF | 65 / 203 | .212/.272/.348 | 5 / 8 | 15 / 55 | 3 |
*Numbers w/Toronto
Alongside their (conservative) 2024 projections via baseball-reference:
| 2024 | PA | BA/OBP/SLG | HR/2B | BB/SO | SB |
| Nick Castellanos, RF | 591 | .275/.322/.469 | 24 / 32 | 36 / 144 | 9 |
| Johan Rojas, CF | 282 | .281/.342/.435 | 7 / 14 | 19 / 65 | 15 |
| Brandon Marsh, LF | 482 | .264/.339/.425 | 12 / 23 | 46 / 145 | 11 |
| Whit Merrifield, OF | 551 | .263/.312/.386 | 11 / 27 | 36 / 93 | 23 |
| Cristian Pache, OF | 274 | .215/.280/.348 | 6 / 11 | 21 / 70 | 4 |
| Jake Cave, OF | 319 | .221/.283/.372 | 9 / 13 | 23 / 86 | 5 |
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