May 15, 2026
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Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie and Lucia Simonelli, a former congressional science adviser, are facing off in a Democratic primary in Pennsylvania's 1st District. Above, they take part in a forum at the Middletown Township Municipal Building in Langhorne on April 27.
Two congressional districts just outside Philadelphia could be critical in the Democrats' attempt to win back control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms in November.
Pennsylvania’s 1st and New Jersey’s 2nd districts have long been Republican strongholds, but Democrats see hope in flipping the seats as the party looks to continue momentum from recent elections and capitalize on President Donald Trump's sinking approval rating.
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"Both of these seats are in relatively moderate areas,” said Mike Sances, associate professor and graduate chair of the Department of Political Science at Temple University. “So the fact that [Democrats] think they have a shot is really a sign that the national environment favors Democrats this year.”
Republicans currently hold a 217-212 edge in the lower chamber, plus an independent also caucuses with the GOP. It's the most narrowly divided House majority since the Great Depression.
Dominant wins for the Democrats in last year's elections, including for Gov. Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey, has brought optimism to the minority party that a power shift could be in the cards this November.
But Republicans notched a recent victory in a nationwide redistricting battle with a ruling by the Supreme Court that weakened a section of the Voting Rights Act that helped combat racial discrimination, paving the way for some red states to possibly redraw map lines to favor Republicans.
With primaries ahead in Pennsylvania (May 19) and New Jersey (June 2), let's take a closer look at two local races that could prove to be pivotal in determining which party ends up with control of the House next year.
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, pictured above in 2023, has represented Pennsylvania's 1st for nearly a decade.
Pennsylvania's 1st District, which includes all of Bucks County and a small part of Montgomery County, has voted for Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick since 2017, but there have been recent signs of a leftward shift from voters. In the 2024 presidential race, Trump narrowly edged Kamala Harris by less than 300 votes — 198,722 to 198,431 — in Bucks County.
In the upcoming Democratic primary, Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie is facing Lucia Simonelli, a former congressional science adviser, for the chance to unseat Fitzpatrick.
Earlier this month, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which calls itself the official campaign arm of House Democrats, added Harvie to its “Red to Blue” program that supports candidates in critical races across the country. The group has backed four candidates in Pennsylvania — more than any other state.
DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene said Harvie "has an undeniable record of showing up and serving the community that raised him" and cited a Global Strategy Group poll from March that showed the incumbent's support waning. Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) has also thrown his support behind the commissioner.
“This is one of the most important congressional races in the entire country,” Harvie said in a statement after Shapiro's endorsement. “And Bucks and Montgomery voters have a chance to reject Donald Trump, Brian Fitzpatrick and a broken Washington that is putting the American Dream further out of reach.”
Simonelli, who describes herself as the more progressive candidate, has denounced Harvie's endorsements.
“Hand-picking a party loyalist did not work for the Democratic establishment during the Harris campaign and it will not work for PA-01,” her campaign said in a statement to the Center Square.
The Global Strategy Group said Fitzpatrick held a six-point edge over Harvie in a recent survey of 400 likely general election voters in the district.
Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) speaks during the second day of the Republican National Convention in 2024.
New Jersey's 2nd District, which contains all of Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland and Salem counties and parts of Gloucester and Ocean counties, has elected Democrat-turned-Republican Rep. Jeff Van Drew to four consecutive terms.
After refusing to vote for Trump’s impeachment in 2019, Van Drew switched his party affiliation on Jan. 7, 2020, and pledged his “undying support” to Trump. He was one of 147 lawmakers who voted against certifying the results of the 2020 presidential election and has since become one of the administration's most vocal loyalists.
Four Democratic hopefuls are running in the upcoming primary: Tim Alexander, a civil rights attorney and former law enforcement officer; Cape May Mayor Zack Mullock; Terri Reese, who worked for the New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development; and Bayly Winder, a former official for the U.S. Agency for International Development.
Among the candidates, Winder has emerged as a front-runner in terms of fundraising, and he's picked up an endorsement from the New Jersey Citizen Action PAC.
Winder has been a vocal opponent of a 2.6 million-square-foot data center that's been proposed in Vineland. While Gothamist reported that the project's developers have contributed to Van Drew’s campaign, the Republican has tried to distance himself from any ties to the proposal. In a statement on Facebook, his campaign said the project has "no federal government component." The data center has received overwhelming opposition from residents, and Democrats seek to capitalize on the issue at the polls.
Bayly Winder paid for a sign on a side of a truck that sits outside the Landis Theater in Vineland on Jan. 21 during a public hearing about a proposed data center.
Amanda Oglesby/Imagn Images
“[Winder's] concern that AI data center expansion in communities across South Jersey is harming the residents due to environmental damage and leading to rising utility bills is similar to our concerns of undue burden on working families,” Dena Mottola Jaborska, NJCA executive director, said in a statement.
While all six counties in the district voted for Trump in the 2024 election, three of them (Atlantic, Cumberland and Gloucester) turned blue and supported Sherrill in the Democrats' landslide victory in last year's gubernatorial race. This shift combined with a recent Rutgers-Eagleton statewide poll that found only 26% people have a favorable opinion of Trump could be signal that even a district long seen as a Republican stronghold could be up for grabs.
“This is going to be a good year for Democrats just like every midterm election is a good one for the party that doesn’t hold the presidency,” Sances said. “Given the House is so closely divided, even a handful of flips could give Democrats control.”
