April 30, 2025
Patrick Gorski/Imagn Images
On May 12, the Sixers will either be rewarded with a top-six pick or leave the NBA Draft Lottery empty-handed.
Every day between the end of the Sixers' regular season and the NBA Draft Lottery on May 12, we will use Tankathon.com's famous simulation tool to run through the lottery 10 times. Over a 29-day period, we will collect a significant sample of possible outcomes and track those results as the Sixers wait to learn the fate of their own first-round pick.
The Sixers are entering the lottery with the fifth-best set of odds, but they will only keep their first-rounder if it falls in the top six slots due to an obligation to the Oklahoma City Thunder from a trade made nearly five years ago.
Let's get to today's simulations:
The outcomes of today's batch of 10 simulations:
• Simulation No. 1: 2nd pick
• Simulation No. 2: 4th pick
• Simulation No. 3: 8th pick
• Simulation No. 4: 1st pick
• Simulation No. 5: 4th pick
• Simulation No. 6: 4th pick
• Simulation No. 7: 6th pick
• Simulation No. 8: 2nd pick
• Simulation No. 9: 7th pick
• Simulation No. 10: 1st pick
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Back-to-back days with favorable batches of simulations for the Sixers, with an 8-for-10 hit rate on keeping their pick and two lottery victories today.
Earlier this month, I dove into how presumptive No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg would transform the Sixers' roster and rotation next season.
The Sixers only lost their pick on two occasions in today's batch, but one of those simulations featured three of the bottom five teams in the lottery jumping into the top four:
This would be the craziest lottery outcome in NBA history.
The cumulative results of this exercise so far:
| Draft Pick | Simulation Outcomes | Simulation Outcome Percentage | Actual Percentage Odds |
| 1 | 20 | 11.7% | 10.5% |
| 2 | 21 | 12.3% | 10.5% |
| 3 | 14 | 8.2% | 10.6% |
| 4 | 22 | 12.9% | 10.5% |
| 5 | 5 | 2.9% | 2.2% |
| 6 | 30 | 17.6% | 19.6% |
| 7 | 43 | 25.2% | 26.7% |
| 8 | 14 | 8.2% | 8.7% |
| 9 | 1 | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| Keep or Lose Pick? | Simulation Outcomes | Simulation Outcome Percentage | Actual Percentage Odds |
| Kept Pick | 112 | 65.8% | 64.0% |
| Lost Pick | 58 | 34.1% | 36.0% |
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