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December 27, 2019

Week 17 NFL picks

For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 17 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.


Dolphins at Patri*ts (-15.5): The scumbag, cheating Patri*ts are going to win this game and lock up a first-round bye. Whatever they do in the playoffs will be tainted, just like everything else they've done in the past. In that respect, they are the taint of the NFL.


Jets at Bills (-1.5): It looks like Josh Allen and the Bills' starters will start this game, and be pulled at some point. There's no historical precedent to glean from in terms of the Bills resting starters for the playoffs, obviously, which makes this game a crap shoot for betting purposes. I think they're run smartly enough these days to know to get their starters the hell out of there very quickly.

Meanwhile, a Jets win maybe doesn't mess up their draft positioning a ton. They'd be picking 10th if the season ended today, and a move out of the top 10 would make the fifth-year option on whoever they take much cheaper in four years. That's not really a good reason to win this game, I guess. Eh, whatever. I've already typed too much about this game. Give me the Jets.


Saints (-13) at Panthers: The Saints need this game, and the Panthers rolled over and died two months ago.

Also, the Saints are reportedly hosting Antonio Brown for a visit. We criticize the Patri*ts quite a bit in these picks posts, but the Saints are perhaps even more evil. As a reminder, they encouraged purposely tearing opposing players' ACLs and giving them concussions:

[Warning: Video contains NSFW language.]


Browns (-2.5) at Bengals: Since the Bengals already have the No. 1 pick locked up, this is kind of like their Super Bowl this year. They can go all out to win this game with no worries of losing their pick of the top quarterback.

This will be a rare occasion in which OBJ and Jarvis Landry don't beg the other team to trade for them.


Packers (-12.5) at Lions: The Packers have already won the NFC North, but they can lock up a first-round bye with a win, and they can get the 1-seed with a win and a Niners loss.


Chargers at Chiefs (-12.5): The Chiefs will be scoreboard watching the scumbag, cheating Patri*ts' game, as a scumbag, cheating Patri*ts loss will open the door for a Chiefs first-round bye with a win here. But it's more likely that the Chiefs will be forced to play in the wildcard round as the 3-seed. 


Bears at Vikings (-1): Both the Vikings and Bears are considering resting starters in this game. The Bears are done, so who cares? As for the Vikings, who are locked into the 6-seed, you could view it one of two ways:

  1. Rest your starters because it's just the smart thing to do.
  2. Try to wash the stink of the their awful Monday night performance against Green Bay off of them before the playoffs.

I would still rest starters if I were them. Still, I'll take them to win over the Bears.


Falcons at Buccaneers (-1): There a real "Andy Reid circa 2011" vibe going on in Atlanta at the moment. The Falcons got out to a 1-7 start, and Dan Quinn looked done for sure. Since, they've won five of seven, and might have saved his job. His players certainly haven't quit on him.


Steelers (-2) at Ravens: I don't care if the Ravens are resting starters or not. That Duck QB stinks.


Washington at Cowboys (-10.5): There's a notion that the Cowboys looked so defeated after their loss to the Eagles last Sunday that they will come out and lay an egg this Sunday against Washington. I don't see that. The Cowboys are a really good football team... when they play crappy teams. They'll smash this Washington team, which is likely tanking for Chase Young.


Titans (-3.5) at Texans: The Titans are playing a "win and in" game, whereas the Texans are all but locked into the 4-seed, playing the Bills. Bill O'Brien won't say if the Texans will rest starters, but they'd be morons not to.


Colts (-3.5) at Jaguars: The Jags are 10-21 since losing in the AFC Championship Game. Their quarterback from that season is gone, along with their best defensive player, and soon to be a bunch of the pass rushers that made them a really good team for that one season.


Eagles (-4) at Giants: Hmm, where should we start? Well...

  1. The Eagles have won the last six matchups against this team, and 10 of the last 11. They own the Giants (though a lot of those games in the six-game winning streak have been close).
  2. The Eagles obviously need this game to win the division, while the Giants have nothing to play for, and really, should be tanking for draft positioning if they had any brains.
  3. The Eagles' offense has come alive under a recently stellar Carson Wentz, and they're facing a decimated Giants secondary with one super-old dude and four rookies.
  4. The best thing the Giants have (Saquon Barkley) lines up with the Eagles biggest strength this season (run defense). 
  5. The bet here is that there are more Eagles fans than Giants fans at MetLife Stadium on Sunday.

While Daniel Jones is capable of a big day, the Eagles have the matchup advantage, and the intangibles advantage, in my view, and should win comfortably. We'll see...


Raiders at Broncos (-3.5): The Broncos have actually been a decent football team down the stretch, and Drew Lock at least gives their fans a reason to watch.


Cardinals at Rams (-5.5): The Rams traded two first-round picks for Jalen Ramsey to go 9-7 and miss the playoffs.


49ers (-3.5) at Seahawks: As we mentioned in our hierarchy, the Seahawks are in big trouble, not just because they have lost their top three running backs, but more importantly because they'll be without their two best offensive linemen, LT Duane Brown and C Justin Britt. That's bad news against the Niners' pass rush.

• Picks against the spread: Eagles (-4).

• Eagles picks: 8-7

• 2019 season, straight up: 140-100-1 (0.583)
• 2019 season, ATS: 39-33-2 (0.541)
• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)
• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS:  41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)

• Last 5 years, ATS: 203-165-7 (0.551)

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