May 12, 2026
John Jones/Imagn Images
Trea Turner, even at 32, is one of the fastest runners in baseball.
It's pretty remarkable what the Phillies have accomplished since they fired Rob Thomson.
They've leaped from a 9-19 record and looking like the worst team in baseball to a 10-3 stretch that has the good times back in South Philly. The team is inching closer toward being in contention for a playoff spot. And that's what it's all about, right?
The marathon 162-game season really only matters if it puts a team in position to play for a World Series, and with a streaky offense and elite starting pitching staff, all the Phillies really need to do is find a way to punch a ticket into October.
But first they have to get through May and the summer with a winning record.
With the Phils back at it this week in Boston, here are some insightful and interesting thoughts about there the team currently stands:
Winners of 10 of their last 13 games, the Phillies have had the best offense in baseball this month.
Over the last two weeks, no team has a higher batting average (.275) or has hit more home runs (19), and only the Pirates have scored more total runs (68, one less than Pittsburgh).
Just how bad was the offense to start the year? If you include the numbers we mentioned over the last 13 games, the Phillies still have a .237 batting average, 16th in the majors. The numbers are getting better, but man did they dig themselves a hole to start the year.
The Phillies have speed and they aren't using it enough. According to Baseball Savant, two of the 11 fastest players in the majors are Phils hitters — Trea Turner, whose 29.7 feet per second sprint speed is the sixth fastest in the game, and Justin Crawford right behind him at 29.6 FPS.
Turner and Crawford have just seven total stolen bases, the combined total of the third-fastest Phillie Bryson Stott, who leads the team. The Phils have 23 stolen bases on 27 attempts — ranking toward the bottom. That number is way below the Marlins, who have attempted 62 stolen bases to lead the league.
This lack of aggression isn't standard for the Phillies, and it also partially explains why they're the third most successful base stealing team at 85% — they pick their spots. They're the third least likely team to nab an extra base (their extra base percentage via baseball reference is just 35%).
For a team that has been behind, a lot, in games early on, it sort of makes sense to take your base and be content. And with mashers like Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper in the lineup the team obviously doesn't want to risk RBI chances. But the team needs to start running more. They have the speed to do it, and the success rate so far to justify it. Crawford, Turner and Stott need to get moving.
The Phillies are one of the worst teams at getting on base in baseball. While they have vastly improved their hitting in recent weeks after their dreadful start, the team's on base percentage is a brutally bad .303, 26th in the majors. They have also drawn the fifth fewest walks in the sport at 122.
It's even more irksome when you look at some of their more specific situational numbers. They have had the sixth most 2-0 counts in MLB, and yet the walks have alluded them. The raw data is sort of bizarre — their 233 2-0 counts have led to just 75 3-0 counts. Phillies hitters have the 20th worst on base rate when they are ahead in the count.
There are 125 hitters entering Tuesday's action with at last 14 walks this season. Only two of them are Phillies (Harper and Schwarber).
It's no secret that the Phillies' pitching staff had about as bad a start to the season as a group of hurlers can have. Things are starting to go right for them — as can be seen from Cris Sánchez' recent domination — but the amount of bad luck is actually impressive.
If you take a look at the 50 pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual batting average against and their expected batting average against (an advanced analytical stat that determines, without defense or ballpark factors, whether exit velocity, launch angle and runner speed should result in a hit), seven Phillies are on that list.
Take a look (the ranks are out of 366 MLB pitchers):
| Pitcher | BAA | XBA | Diff | Rank |
| José Alvarado | .333 | .221 | +.112 | 1st |
| Tanner Banks | .342 | .261 | +.081 | 10th |
| Cris Sánchez | .260 | .217 | +.043 | 37th |
| Andrew Painter | .321 | .278 | +.043 | 37th |
| Jesús Luzardo | .278 | .236 | +.042 | 41st |
| Tajuan Walker | .353 | .313 | +.040 | 44th |
| Orion Kerkering | .185 | .147 | +.038 | 48th |
What does this mean? Well for one, having a bad defense isn't helping thing. But beyond that, the law of averages suggests the Phillies will see their luck get better and the pitching numbers should continue to improve.
Heading to Boston to face the underachieving Red Sox this week, the Phillies are looking to extend a streak of four series wins in a row. Each of the four has been against a less than intimidating opponent. They swept the Giants, who are now seven games below .500. They took three of four from the Marlins, expected to finish at the bottom of the NL East. They handled the Athletics, a team likely to face an uphill battle to make the AL playoffs, and they scored 22 runs against the Rockies, one of the worst teams in the sport.
After the Boston series the Phillies will be tested by a steady dose of contenders over the next few weeks. Here's a look at their next few series:
| Dates | Opponent | Record |
| May 15-17 | @ Pirates | 22-19 |
| May 18-20 | vs. Reds | 22-19 |
| May 22-24 | vs. Guardians | 22-21 |
| May 25-27 | @ Padres | 24-16 |
| May 29-31 | @Dodgers | 24-17 |
| June 2-4 | vs. Padres | 24-16 |
That might be a tough stretch. Even if the Phillies climb back to .500 this week, it will be an impressive feat to see them stay there. If Philly emerges on June 5th with a winning record, it'll tell us a lot about this team going forward.
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