June 22, 2026
Brett Davis/IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Trea Turner (7) tags out Atlanta Braves right fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (13) in the seventh inning at Truist Park.
Twenty eight games into the baseball season, the Phillies were a hapless mess. They couldn't hit, they couldn't pitch, they could't field.
At 9-19, the two-time defending National League East champs fell 10.5 games behind Atlanta after losing to the Braves on a Sunday. Two days later, they fired manager Rob Thomson and promoted Don Mattingly for the rest of the season.
Could they rebound in time for a Wild Card berth?
Fifty nine games into the season, the Phillies have improved. They were streaky offensively, for sure, and the bullpen was shaky, but they won the first four games of the Mattingly era, the first six series under their interim manager, and on May 26 had crept a game over .500 for the first time since April 7.
The turnaround helped the Phillies get back into the NL Wild Card race. But on the last day of May they still trailed Atlanta by 9.5 games.
No matter what the Phillies did, no matter how many game they won, they couldn't put a dent in Atlanta's first-place lead. The Phils were an MLB-best 21-10 from the day Mattingly took over until the last day of May.
The Braves? They went 19-11, good enough to maintain their spacious lead over the Phils and everyone else in the NL East.
Then came June, and with it another Phillies surge and, finally, a Braves slide. The Phils are 12-6 this month. Atlanta is 8-8.
Today, the Phillies get ready for a four-game set against the Nationals while the Braves begin a West Coast trip with three against San Diego.
Suddenly, the Phils clawing their way back to the first place doesn't seem so ... impossible.
The Phillies are 6.5 games behind Atlanta, still a big number, but not nearly as imposing as the 10.5-game deficit they stared down exactly one month ago.
They've gained four games on the Braves since May 22 – can they gain four more over the next month to get within 2-3 games going into August?
With the starting pitching they're getting, with the way their bats have slowly come around, and with a trade deadline nearing that could net them another bat, bullpen arm and possibly a backend starter, the opportunity is there.
The Braves haven't just shown to be vulnerable, their injuries are starting to pile up.
Atlanta's 9-4 loss to the Brewers on Sunday was its fourth loss in six games, seventh in the past 10.
The Braves lost All-Star centerfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. to the IL on June 10 with another hamstring injury. Last Wednesday, before the Braves would lose their third straight game, manager Walt Weiss told reporters that the 2023 NL MVP and five-time All Star was "a long way" from getting back.
Two days earlier, the Braves had shut down All-Star starter Spencer Strider for at least four weeks because of elbow inflammation and placed the fireballing right-hander on the 60-day IL.
The Braves already have one starter, Spencer Schwellenbach, who's been on IL since the start of the season after undergoing an elbow procedure and another, Hurston Waldrep, who also underwent elbow surgery before the season and has been on a rehab assignment since June 12 in Triple-A.
Their best overall pitcher, Chris Sale, has already thrown 84 innings, projecting around 160+ innings for the season. The frequently injured 37-year-old southpaw has thrown 160+ innings just once since 2017, and that came in 2024. He managed just 125.2 last year.
One could reasonably argue that Sale won't make it to see 160 innings in 2026.
Twelve of Atlanta's next 19 games until the All-Star break come against teams that are .500 or better. Meanwhile, just four of the next 20 games for the Phils come against .500 or better teams – a four-game set starting today against the Nats (40-38) and four more against the Pirates (39-39), who the Phils swept earlier this season in Pittsburgh.
Also, six of the last nine games for the Phils before the All-Star break come against two of MLB's worst teams – the Royals (32-46) and Tigers (33-44), with a three-game set against the currently below .500 Reds (37-39) in between.
Suddenly, whittling 2-3 more games off that 6.5-game deficit doesn't seem so ... impossible. The mountain doesn't seem so ... insurmountable.
Because of MLB's kooky scheduling, the Phillies and Braves won't meet again until September, and then they'll clash seven times in the season's final month.
Anything can happen between now and then – the Phils could about-face and slide again, the Braves could resurge, both teams could get hot or cold at the same time.
But if the Phils can surge into September with first place still in striking distance, they could control their own destiny in those two series against Atlanta.
Would've thought that on May 22?
SIGN UP HERE to receive PhillyVoice's Sports newsletters.
Follow Geoff on Twitter/X: @geoffpmosher
Like us on Facebook: PhillyVoice Sports
