September 29, 2024
After clinching their first National League East crown in 13 years in their home ballpark, the Phillies traveled to Washington, D.C. for a three-game set against the Nationals to close out the regular season. There were no real stakes for the Phillies in this series -- any positive momentum heading into October is a plus, but the team's primary goal during the weekend was to not sustain any injuries.
While Austin Hays missed two games with a sore back and Johan Rojas was sent home with an illness, neither player's availability moving forward appears to be in question. So, to that end, their final series of the 2024 regular season was a success. On the field, though, they did little to inspire confidence.
On Friday night, Ranger Suárez took the mound looking to provide any sort of reason for optimism amid a multiple-month stretch of struggles. But things went from bad to worse for Suárez, whose viability in October is very much in question after yet another poor outing which resulted in a loss. The following night, Zack Wheeler was in peak form, but a lifeless Phillies offense and uncharacteristic meltdown from All-Star reliever Jeff Hoffman led to the Phillies dropping another contest. In Game 162 on Sunday, Aaron Nola took the ball and received more run support than Suárez and Wheeler combined, with the Phillies winning 6-3.
The Phillies have ended the season with a 95-67 record -- second-best in the National League and the majors. Here is what jumped out from their final three games before the lights get brighter:
Friday night was a disaster for Suárez, who just has not been the same pitcher since June. He only lasted two innings, allowing six earned runs on seven hits. Only 35 of his 59 pitches were strikes. The Phillies lost, 9-1, with their lone run coming on a solo shot by Hays late in the game.
Suárez was never going to keep pace with the 1.75 ERA he posted through 15 starts, but his 6.17 ERA in his last dozen starts after that outstanding stretch is putrid. Suárez's velocity continues to be below its typical marks and the typically-precise southpaw has been more erratic of late. How many outs he is capable of recording in games during the postseason remains to be seen.
For what it's worth, Suárez has been lights-out in back-to-back Octobers despite poor starts to end his regular seasons. In 2022, Suárez allowed six runs in three innings of work in Houston to cap off his regular season. Weeks later, he tossed five shutout innings against the Astros in Game 3 of the World Series. In 2023, he allowed six runs and nine hits in 4.2 innings pitched against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates in his tune-up start.
So, Suárez struggling on Friday night is not, in isolation, a cause for much concern. But the fact that it was the continuation of a very lengthy pattern of struggles for the Phillies' once-reliable left-hander makes it extremely alarming. The state of the Phillies' No. 5 spot in the rotation is so dire that even despite Suárez looking like a shell of himself for months, he has to be the fourth and final member of the team's starting staff in October.
The Phillies will hope that someone with an affinity for pitching well in big games can come up large under enormous pressure for the third straight postseason, but it will be an uphill battle for Suárez to earn enough trust to go deep into any games.
What a run the 2024 regular season was for the Phillies' ace, who is likely the underdog in the NL Cy Young Award race with Chris Sale of the Atlanta Braves but has done everything he possibly could to remain in strong contention for the award. Wheeler made one mistake on Saturday -- a middle-middle sinker that Nationals rookie James Wood sent into the left-field seats for a two-run homer -- but was absolutely dominant, punctuating a remarkable year. Wheeler went 6.1 innings, enough to get his season total to 200.0 innings pitched on the dot. He allowed just three hits and collected 11 strikeouts.
Zack Wheeler, Filthy 85mph Curveball. 😷 pic.twitter.com/X3EuInBlzL
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 28, 2024
The Phillies tied the game in the eighth inning on a two-run shot by Trea Turner, but Hoffman allowed four runs in the bottom half of the inning and the game was quickly out of reach. Hoffman was one out away from completing a full season with an ERA below 2.00, but allowed a three-run homer and ended up finishing an excellent contract year with a 2.17 ERA in 68 appearances (66.1 innings pitched)
The main goal for Wheeler remains returning to the World Series and emerging victorious, but his 2024 campaign should not be forgotten. Wheeler has been the best starting pitcher on the planet since joining the Phillies five seasons ago, and he is quickly ascending on the list of all-time starting pitchers in the history of the franchise.
Wheeler's final stats in 2024: 32 starts, 200.0 innings pitched, 2.57 ERA, 224 K, 0.96 WHIP, 3.13 FIP, .192/.253/.328 opponent's slash line, 5.4 fWAR.
The Phillies opened Sunday's regular season finale with a pair of runs on productive outs from Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm. In the fifth inning, they tacked on four more runs when Kyle Schwarber drove in a pair with a single and Weston Wilson knocked in two with a double.
Nola needed to pitch 5.2 innings to, like Wheeler, reach 200.0 innings pitched for the season, but he could not quite get there. Nola's pitch count was a bit higher than ideal, and while he began the sixth inning on the mound just two outs shy, he allowed a lead-off triple and was subsequently removed from the game.
In the second inning, Nola was hit in the lower back by a line drive and was checked out by Phillies manager Rob Thomson on the mound -- clearly in at least a bit of pain -- but ultimately remained in the game. The goal appeared to be getting Nola through 5.2 innings pitched, but Thomson called off the mission once Nola had reached 96 pitches. That was the right move, but it is fair to wonder whether Nola should have even come close to that pitch count in a game with zero ramifications.
José Ruiz nearly allowed a walk-off grand slam with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning, but Kody Clemens made a game-saving catch at the wall.
What a catch from Kody Clemens! pic.twitter.com/1cXVI3wqRu
— Phillies Tailgate (@PhilsTailgate) September 29, 2024
With their 95th win, the 2024 Phillies became the sixth-winningest team in the history of the franchise. But their goals have never pertained to regular season win totals. Now, the time has come to finally finish the job in October.
Up next: The Phillies will play next on Oct. 5 at Citizens Bank Park in Game 1 of the National League Division Series. They will host the first two games of the best-of-five series, with a deciding fifth game -- if necessary -- also taking place in South Philadelphia. But who they will face remains a mystery.
We know that as the No. 2 seed in the National League, the Phillies will face off against the winner of a best-of-three series between the No. 3 seed Milwaukee Brewers and the No. 6 seed. But the world will have to wait another day to know who the Brewers will host in the Wild Card round. It could be New York Mets, but it could also be the Arizona Diamondbacks -- a team with which the Phillies have a score to settle. This will all be decided during a Monday doubleheader between the Mets and Atlanta Braves at Truist Park.
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