Even though the Eagles cling tightly to their longstanding belief that draft picks are about the future and not to fill immediate needs, they've done a good job getting the most from first-round picks in Year 1. 

Their last two – Jihaad Campbell in 2025, Quinyon Mitchell in 2024 – were both starters by Week 1 and played well as rookies. Campbell ultimately lost his job to Nakobe Dean but only because the veteran Dean had missed the first month to come back from surgery; Campbell was essentially a place-holder but still played well and will start this season.

In 2023, Jalen Carter started just one game but played 58 percent of the snaps in a stud rotation that included Fletcher Cox, Milton Williams and Jordan Davis. In 2021, DeVonta Smith started 16 games and came close to the 1,000-yard receiving mark.

Davis is the outlier of the past five drafts. Taken 13th overall in 2022, Davis only played 13 games as a rookie, starting just five. He played only 26 percent of the snaps as he struggled with conditioning and technique.  

Last week, the Eagles selected USC wide receiver Makai Lemon 20th overall. Lemon is a very refined, pro-ready prospect who the Eagles said they had rated much higher and for whatever reason tumbled into the bottom half of the first round.

Lemon, who joined Eagles rookies at the two-day rookie minicamp that started Friday, should have plenty of opportunities to make an early impact in a new offensive scheme implemented by new coordinator Sean Mannion, especially with wideout A.J. Brown headed out the door sometime around June 1.

But the Eagles still have Smith, tight end Dallas Goedert, and veteran newcomers Dontayvion Wicks and Marquise Brown for Lemon to contend with in the battle for targets.

What kind of production should be expected of Lemon in Year 1? We looked at receivers drafted between 20th and 30th overall in the past five years to find the best comparison and then came up with our own projection.

It was hard finding the best situation comp. Some wideouts were over-drafted, some were drafted into bad passing-game situations, some were asked to be the focal point immediately, and some weren't as polished and pro-ready as Lemon is.

Here are the receivers drafted between 20-30 over the past five seasons and their Year 1 production:

Packers WR Matthew Golden (23rd overall, 2025): 29-361-0 on 44 targets
Jags WR Brian Thomas (23rd overall, 2024): 87-1,282-10 on 133 targets
Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy (28th, 2024): 59-638-6 on 98 targets
Seahawks WR Jaxson Smith-Ngiba (20th, 2023): 63-628-4 on 93 targets
Chargers WR Quentin Johnston (21st, 2023): 38-431-2 on 67 targets
Ravens WR Zay Flowers (22nd, 2023): 77-858-5 on 108 targets
Vikings WR Jordan Addison (23rd, 2023): 70-911-10 on 108 targets
Giants WR Kadarius Toney (20th, 2021): 39-420-0 on 57 targets
Ravens WR Rashod Bateman (27th, 2021): 46-516-1 on 68 targets

No comparison

Let's start by eliminating Quentin Johnston and Kadarius Toney. Johnston is 6-foot-4 and was mainly a deep ball merchant at TCU who ran a limited route tree, which is why he has struggled to become a WR1 in the NFL. He's the opposite of the 5-foot-11 Lemon, who did most of his damage in the middle of the field and has terrific hands. 

Toney was more of an exceptional athlete than football player but also a knucklehead who was traded to the Chiefs before the end of his second season and played just three games for the Browns in 2024 – his third team in three seasons. He's already out of football. Eagles fans unfortunately know that Toney was more valuable in punt return than anything else.

Let's also eliminate Brian Thomas Jr., another big-framed (6-2, 209) wideout who immediately became the centerpiece of the passing attack for an undermanned, injury riddled Jags team that went 4-13 and got Doug Pederson fired. Thomas' 133 targets were mainly because the Jags had no other weapons. Their next-highest leader in receptions that year was TE Evan Engram, followed by TE Brenton Strange, followed by RB Travis Etienne, followed by WR Parker Washington. If Lemon has 133 targets in 2025, something went terribly wrong for the Eagles.

The 77 targets for Zay Flowers in 2023 is only realistic for Lemon if there's an injury that keeps DeVonta Smith sidelined for several games and makes Lemon the WR1. Flowers was clearly WR1 for a Ravens offense that featured Rashod Bateman and veteran Nelson Agholor as its other two receivers. Flowers had nearly twice the receptions as Baltimore's second-leading receiver, TE Mark Andrews, who caught 45 balls.

Somewhat comparable

Matthew Golden and Lemon have almost identical height and weight, but Golden is much faster – he ran a 4.29 at the NFL Scouting Combine – and way more of a threat to take the top off an offense. He joined a Packers offense that already had Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and an elite pass-catching tight end in Tucker Kraft. Even with Watson and Reed missing plenty of games last year, Golden didn't make the expected impact in Green Bay's offense.

Like Golden did, Lemon will join an Eagles offense in which he won't be the first – and maybe not second or third – option in the pass game. Also, Matt LaFleur's offense doesn't have a true No. 1 receiver. The Packers also like to run the ball, as Josh Jacobs has 535 carries over the past two seasons.

It's safe to assume new Eagles OC Sean Mannion, whose only coaching experience is two seasons under LaFleur, will borrow from his Green Bay experience in Philadelphia. So while Lemon and Golden are much different types of receivers, their environments are similar, which could lead to similar Year 1 outcomes. 

Like Golden, Xavier Worthy came into the pros a true sideline burner. His 4.21 40-yard dash is still the NFL Scouting Combine record. A season-ending injury to Chiefs possession wideout Rashee Rice in 2024 meant Worthy needed to be adjusted into a different role in Kansas City's struggling offense. Worthy finished with 98 targets but averaged under 11 yards per catch, which isn't really what they envisioned when they picked him. 

Lemon and Worthy truly belong in the "no comparison" category in terms of body type and skill set but it's not at all crazy to think Lemon could duplicate or even exceed Worthy's Year 1 outcome of 59-638-6, even if the 98 targets is unlikely.  

Jordan Addison's 70 receptions for 911 yards and 10 TDs on 108 targets in 2023 would also be a very ambitious Year 1 projection for Lemon. Vikings star Justin Jefferson missed seven games that season, and that meant force-feeding passes to Addison and TE T.J. Hockenson. In fact, Addison's targets per game have gone down in each of the past two seasons. 

But if the Eagles have injuries at wide receiver, Lemon getting around 85-90 targets would be more feasible and finishing something in the neighborhood of 900 yards – like DeVonta Smith's rookie season – wouldn't be too far-fetched. 

Most comparable

To me, the best comp is Jaxson Smith-Njigba, a receiver who Lemon drew comparisons to in the pre-draft cycle for skill set. He and Lemon have similar body types, although Smith-Njigba is more explosive and more threatening in the deep game than what Lemon showed in college. Both have hands like glue.

In 2023, JSN entered an offense that already had proven wideouts in D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett along with a decent tight end in Noah Fant. The Seahawks and then-coach Pete Carroll loved to run but ended up throwing way more that season because the Seahawks were an average team that couldn't dominate the line of scrimmage.

Could Lemon finish with a similar 63-628-4 line that Smith-Njiga produced as a rookie? Sure. The 93 targets might be a little high – especially if the Eagles reprise their run game – but Lemon could be good enough to become the second most targeted pass catcher in the Eagles' offense.

Rashod Batemen also has a similar body frame and skill set as Lemon and was also a highly productive player in college known for plus hands and working the middle of the field. In his sophomore season at Minnesota, Bateman caught 60 balls for 1,219 yards and 11 touchdowns – not far from the 79-1,156-11 that Lemon just produced at USC. In 2021 with the Ravens, Bateman fell behind Mark Andrews and second-year pro Marquise Brown on the totem pole in the passing game. The Ravens also run a lot.

It wouldn't shocking if Lemon finished third behind a 1-2 punch of either Smith-Goedert or Smith-Marquise Brown in the Eagles' passing game. There's also the potential of Wicks seizing more opportunities. He's the only true "X" wideout in the offense. That could push Lemon into more of a WR3/WR4 role on a run-first offense. In that case, a stat line similar to Bateman's rookie season (46-516-1 on 68 targets) is more feasible.

Final verdict

Assuming the Eagles are relatively healthy and Lemon emerges into the second-most or third-most targeted pass catcher, a Year 1 stat line in between JSN's rookie season and Bateman's rookie season appears most logical. We'll go with 50 receptions for 886 yards and three TD catches on 81 targets.   

If the Eagles have major injuries on offense, Lemon could get into the range of 80-90 targets, but that wouldn't bode well for the overall season.

Lemon is too refined and his hands are too dependable to see him making any less of an impact, although it should be noted that Nelson Agholor struggled to adjust in 2015 despite being a very productive player at USC and encountered some off-field obstacles before a Year 3 breakout. Nobody knows what it's like to play and perform in Philly before they actually do it. 

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