September 20, 2016
Unless an asteroid hits Philadelphia between now and April (and Harry Stamper doesn’t save us), the Sixers are going to win more games in 2016-17 than they did last season. You can take that one to the bank. Las Vegas, though, believes the ’16-17 team is going to almost triple that 10-win total.
Well, that’s not exactly true. From the sportsbook’s standpoint, the line is the number that entices an equal amount of action on both sides. In this case, the Las Vegas Westgate Superbook set the Sixers’ over/under for the upcoming season at 27.5 wins on Tuesday.
Brand spankin' new from @LVSuperBook!
— Covers (@Covers) September 20, 2016
NBA Regular Season Win Totals for 2016-17. pic.twitter.com/Ny0oogqjyX
Brooklyn (20.5), the Los Angeles Lakers (24.5), and Phoenix (26.5) all have lower totals than Philly.
More than anything, the number makes it seem like the public is excited to watch Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, and Dario Saric make their debuts. That excitement is certainly understandable, but the over/under looks a decent bit higher than what it probably should be.
The Sixers will more closely resemble a professional basketball team this season. Simmons, Embiid, and Saric are legitimate talents. Gerald Henderson, Sergio Rodriguez, and Jerryd Bayless are NBA vets that could all help good teams in specific roles. In fact, Hendo did just that for Portland last season. With their addition and another year of experience for the returning players, the Sixers should get blown out much less. I imagine their point differential will improve significantly.
Still, going from 10 to 27.5 wins is a tall order for such a young roster. It’s important to remember that a win total in the low 20s wouldn’t necessarily be an indictment of the young talent. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook won 23 games in their first season together, for example.
Usually, these things take a little time. That’s why, initially, I would be surprised if the Sixers win more than 27 games this season.
Follow Rich on Twitter: @rich_hofmann
