May 22, 2026
Provided Image/NOAA Satellites
A view from a NOAA satellite of Hurricane Erin off the U.S. East Coast on Aug. 20, 2025. The agency predicts below-average hurricane activity in 2026.
Hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin — which includes the gulf, Caribbean Sea and North Atlantic Ocean — is expected to remain below normal levels this season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday.
The agency is predicting a 55% chance of below-average activity, with a total of eight to 14 “named storms,” which are categorized as having winds of at least 39 mph. An average season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, has 14 named storms and seven hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including three major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or higher).
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One major factor is a developing El Niño, a climate event that occurs every two to five years. While it's characterized by unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean, the weather pattern can have global implications. For the Atlantic Basin, the formation of an El Niño has been associated with a lower rate of hurricanes.
“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” Ken Graham, NOAA's National Weather Service director, said in a statement. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”
If the 2026 season goes according to the projections, it would be only the second time in the last decade that hurricane activity wasn't above normal, the agency said. There will be an updated outlook in early August before the typical peak of the Atlantic's hurricane season.
The forecast does not account for the specific locations, timings or intensities. At the end of last summer, New Jersey declared a state of emergency and many beach towns banned swimming in preparation of Hurricane Erin, which brought floods that forced around 50 people to be rescued.
The alphabetical list of tropical cyclone names as chosen by the World Meteorological Organization for the 2026 hurricane season are: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Leah, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred.
