May 20, 2022
The middle leg of the Triple Crown is one of the hardest tests for any horse and jockey combination after winning the Kentucky Derby. It can also unfortunately eliminate any hopes of seeing a horse win all three coveted races if anything happens to the Derby winner. That is the case with this year’s Preakness and ultimately the biggest problem with this sport.
After shocking the world and ruining most tickets in Kentucky, Rich Strike will take the coward’s way out and skip the race at Pimlico, and instead will be waiting to waste people’s time and money at the Belmont.
That means everyone’s favorite horse Epicenter is back in the fold, in fact a huge 6-5 favorite on the opening board. But don’t let the public’s love of this deserving favorite fool you, between the remaining value on Epicenter and the rest of the field, there will be other ways to make some money.
Much like with the Derby, the favorite here is a stay away. It’s not Epicenter’s fault – be it the horse or trainer Steve Asmussen. Epicenter held off the Derby favorite in Zandon but couldn’t keep out the 80-1 longshot. It was a fluke. Something Epicenter has been able to overcome or simply race consistently. This horse also has history working against it, as finishing second in the Derby usually spells disaster at the Preakness.
Over the last 29 years, just one horse has finished as the runner-up in Kentucky and won the Preakness. The record since 1994 of any horse finishing second at the Derby then at the Preakness is 1 for 14. The odds here at 6-5 do not warrant that risk with so much history stacked against the favorite. Play Epicenter in a trifecta to come in third, but there are better horses in the field.
Three of the last five Preakness winners weren’t even in the Kentucky Derby field. The new blood can be seen as a shady way to limit the chances of a horse winning all three major races, but since Rich Strike was pulled, we don’t need to care about it. On the other hand, there is something to finding a new horse in the field that has had enough success to think this race puts it over the top. Such is the case here for the filly Secret Oath. Over her last four races, Secret Oath has dominated – outside of a trip at the Arkansas Derby where she still finished third behind the boys.
Secret Oath has a huge Kentucky Oaks victory under her belt and has shown she can keep up with any male horse. The field lends itself to opening a little for her, as Secret Oath has already proven she’s got the stuff with that huge comeback in Arkansas, and a two-length victory at the Kentucky Oaks – despite being eighth at one point. Part of that charge at the Oaks was attributed to new jockey Luis Saez, who will continue to ride Secret Oath this weekend.
There isn’t anything to overthink with Simplification. The 6-1 horse will race out of the No. 1 post on Saturday and isn’t a pick to win but has an interesting history that’s worth applying here. For some reason, Simplification can race with the best of any field, just not win. He has a knack for finishing in the top three to four horses without actually winning the race. That is normally something to fade when it comes to picking winners, but in the case of an exacta or trifecta, putting a horse with Simplification’s recent history in a multi-play ticket should work.
The fourth-place finish for Simp at the Derby marked the seventh straight race where the horse finished fourth place or better. That’s not easy despite the competition and tracks changing. It doesn’t matter if you are playing one or multiple trifecta tickets, this horse should be third no matter what.
There’s also a Kentucky-bred colt named Early Voting that has an interesting history of his own. Trainer Chad Brown brought another horse to the Preakness in 2017 with a similar history to Early Voting. Cloud Computing finished third at the Wood Memorial at the Aqueduct, then skipped the Derby, only to win the Preakness in just his fourth career start.
Guess what track Early Voting is on? He finished second at the wood, skipped the Derby, and is set to make his fourth career start. Brown has a history of success at the Preakness and Early Voting fits better at this track. The Derby asks for a faster pacing, one that doesn’t favor Early Voting, so being able to extend a little longer in Baltimore will be huge this weekend for the 7-2 favorite.
Always remember that these odds are fluid. Unlike other sports, we get a concrete idea of what the odds will be, and they rarely move – much – before the game begins. Here these are fluid and numbers can change right before the start of any race. It’s vital that you are constantly looking at the most updated predictions and betting accordingly, all to prevent any last-minute issues or changes at the book.
Good luck and let’s cash some tickets!
Follow Eytan on Twitter: @shandershow
You can listen to Eytan on @foxphlgambler (Mon.-Weds., 6-8 p.m.)
Like us on Facebook: PhillyVoice Sports
