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July 06, 2019

A look at Vegas' MVP candidates for the 2019 NFL season

It's July 6, and I happened to come across the following MVP odds from the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas, so what the hell, let's take a look. These are, you know, real odds, as opposed to others that circulate on Twitter and elsewhere. Of course, they're a couple weeks old, but shut up:

In case you can't read all that, let's clean it up a bit, and put them in order, starting with the guys with 80/1 odds or better:

Player Odds (as of 6/25/19) 
 Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs4/1 
 Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers8/1 
 Andrew Luck, QB, Colts8/1 
 Carson Wentz, QB, Eagles10/1 
 Drew Brees, QB, Saints10/1 
 Tom Brady, QB, Patriots12/1 
 Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers14/1 
 Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks14/1 
 Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers25/1 
 Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons25/1 
 Baker Mayfield, QB, Browns25/1 
 Jared Goff, QB, Rams60/1 
 Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans60/1 
 Cam Newton, QB, Panthers60/1 
 Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys60/1 
 Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions80/1 
 Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints80/1 
 Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers80/1 
 Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, 49ers80/1 
 Kirk Cousins, QB, Vikings80/1 
 Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants80/1 

My best buys among the players with 80/1 odds or better: 

Carson Wentz, QB, Eagles, 10/1: The Eagles' offense is loaded, and in spring practices, Wentz looked a whole lot like the quarterback he was in 2017. Of course, all "If he can stay healthy" disclaimers apply, but even though he has the fourth-shortest odds, I still like him at 10/1.

Tom Brady, QB, Patriots 12/1: He's old as hell and Gronk is gone, but Brady is still really good, he plays in an absolutely garbage division, and the Patriots/Brady always have the built-in advantage of being the cheatingest bunch of cheaters who ever cheated.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Browns, 25/1: I can't believe he's this low. The Browns have a ton of weapons on offense, and Mayfield looked like he was the real deal last year. Additionally, from a storyline perspective that the dopey voters will eat up, if the Browns can win the AFC North (which they are favored to do in some places), Mayfield will get a ton of added credit for turning the Browns' franchise around.

Jared Goff, QB, Rams: I'm not a huge fan of Goff's game, but the Rams still have an explosive offense, and 60/1 is pretty juicy.

And then there were a slew of guys with 100/1 odds:

Player Odds (as of 6/25/19) 
 Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys100/1 
 Le'Veon Bell, RB, Steelers100/1 
 Sam Darnold, QB, Jets100/1 
 Sony Michel, RB, Patriots100/1 
 Aaron Donald, DT, Rams100/1 
 Khalil Mack, Edge, Bears100/1 
 Von Miller, Edge, Beoncos100/1 
 J.J. Watt, DE, Texans100/1 
 Joey Bosa, Edge, Chargers100/1 
 Melvin Ingram, Edge, Chargers100/1 
 Myles Garrett, Edge, Browns100/1 
 Antonio Brown, WR, Raiders100/1 
 Derek Carr, QB, Raiders100/1 
 Jameis Winston, QB, Buccaneers100/1 
 Julio Jones, WR, Falcons100/1 
 Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals100/1 
 Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens100/1 
 Marcus Mariota, QB, Titans100/1 
 Melvin Gordon, RB, Chargers100/1 
 Michael Thomas, WR, Saints100/1 
 Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers100/1 
 Nick Chubb, RB, Browns100/1 
 Odell Beckham, WR, Browns100/1 
 Todd Gurley, RB, Rams100/1 
 Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs100/1 

My best buys among the 100/1 guys:

Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys 100/1: I mean, admit it. 100/1 is pretty good for a guy who will be absurdly hyped if he has a good season. He has the same odds as Derek Carr and Jameis Winston, somehow.

Aaron Donald, DT, Rams 100/1: If you're going to waste your money taking a defensive player, of which there are many in the 100/1 group, Donald is the best bet, in my opinion.

Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals 100/1: If you have money to burn, why not? I think he'll be fun to watch, at a minimum.

And finally, the long shots: 

Player Odds (as of 6/25/19) 
 Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Bears200/1 
 Nick Foles, QB, Jaguars200/1 
 Fletcher Cox, DT, Eagles200/1 
 Nick Bosa, DE, 49ers200/1 
 Luke Kuechly, LB, Panthers200/1 
 Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Cowboys200/1 
 Phillip Lindsay, RB, Broncos200/1 
 Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings200/1 
 Damien Williams, RB, Chiefs200/1 
 A.J. Green, WR, Bengals200/1 
 Aaron Jones, RB, Packers200/1 
 Adam Thielen, WR, Vikings200/1 
 Amari Cooper, WR, Cowboys200/1 
 Brandin Cooks, WR, Rams200/1 
 Davante Adams, WR, Packers200/1 
 David Johnson, RB, Cardinals200/1 
 Derrick Henry, RB, Titans200/1 
 Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons200/1 
 James Connor, RB, Steelers200/1 
 Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals200/1 
 Juju Smith-Schuster, WR, Steelers200/1 
Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots 200/1 
 Leonard Fournette, RB, Jaguars200/1 
 George Kittle, TE, 49ers300/1 
 Stefon Diggs, WR, Vikings300/1 
 T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts300/1 
 Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles300/1 
 Tarik Cohen, RB, Bears300/1 

Best buys among the long shots:

Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Bears, 200/1: How is he at 200/1 and guys like Mariota, Winston, and Carr at 100/1? I actually love Trubisky as a deep long shot play at 200/1. 

David Johnson, RB, Cardinals, 200/1: Running backs have a huge hurdle to clear to win MVP awards over quarterbacks, but if there's a one that I like, it's Johnson. He's still very talented, he has a coach that opposing defensive coordinators will have to figure out initially, and if there's a position player in a circumstance to carry a terrible team to an unlikely divisional championship in what I feel is an overrated division, it's him.

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