September 24, 2026
Denis Poroy/Imagn Images via Reuters Connect
Pick your opponent: the red hot Padres or the ball-mashing Cubs.
There's still some work to do. You can be sure, at least officially, the Phillies have two focuses and two focuses only right now — locking up a playoff berth and getting their rotation and bullpen ready for a best of three-game Wild Card series.
After losing to the Brewers Wednesday night, Philadelphia needs a combination of two more wins, two more losses by the desperate Diamondbacks, or one of each to end all doubt and put them in the playoff field.
With four games left in the season, it's still entirely possible the Phillies finish anywhere from the No. 4 seed to the No. 6 seed — or out of the field entirely if they can't reach their magic number. Once in the field, they could host the Cubs, or play them at Wrigley. They could host the Padres, or play them in Southern California. Or they could play in Atlanta against the biggest thorn of the entire season, the NL East champion Braves.
Here's a look at the numbers from each of the three potential first round opponents:
| Cubs | Braves | Padres | |
| Runs scored | 839 (1st) | 725 (7th) | 695 (12th) |
| OPS | .769 (1st) | .721 (7th) | .716 (8th) |
| Batting avg | .251 (5th) | .247 (7th) | .243 (11th) |
| ERA | 4.17 (10th) | 3.60 (3rd) | 3.94 (4th) |
| WHIP | 1.263 (4th) | 1.248 (3rd) | 1.289 (8th) |
| K/BB | 2.54 (6th) | 2.53 (7th) | 2.40 (8th) |
Is there an opponent the team should prefer? It's not as though they'd tank a game, or try harder just to get one opponent or another. But there are three vastly different ballclubs potentially waiting for them next week to kick off what the Phillies hope is a long October of baseball.
Here's how we'd rank the three teams, in order of best match up to worst:
Record vs. Phillies: 0-6
Likely starting pitchers: Michael King (12-10, 3.21 ERA), Walker Buehler (9-8, 4.56 ERA), Nick Pivetta (3-2, 3.30 ERA)
The path: Philly owns the tiebreaker with the Padres, and would need to either be the 4 or 5-seed to face them, with the Cubs falling to the 6th spot.
The skinny: This has to be the ideal matchup for the Phillies. They won all six games during the regular season against them, doubling them up on runs scored 22-11. The starting pitching here isn't particularly intimidating either, especially compared to the other two teams on this list.
The Padres don't have an impressive offense either, as the numbers above show. But they have gone 14-3 in their last 17 games, including an eight and five-game win streak this month. They're peaking and playing their best baseball which makes them dangerous for sure.
Record vs. Phillies: 9-4
Likely starting pitchers: Chris Sale (14-9, 2.18 ERA), Tyler Mahle (4-1, 1.28 ERA), Martín Pérez (9-9, 3.04 ERA)
The path: The Braves wrapped up the NL East this weekend, but they're too far behind the Brewers or Dodgers to improve beyond the 3-seed. Which means the 6-seed will travel to Atlanta next week.
The skinny: The Braves have had the Phillies' number all season, as anyone who watched the two teams go at it a few weeks ago can attest to. In recent history, some of the Phils' most memorable postseason moments have come at the expense of their rivals from Atlanta, so the mental edge could come to play in a matchup here.
The Braves are an excellent baseball team but they're also very injured. Four of their top arms are on the IL right now — Spencer Strider, Robert Suarez, Bryce Elder and Renaldo Lopez. Spencer Schwellenbach had Tommy John surgery, Lane Thomas was recently added to the 10-day IL and Ronald Acuña Jr. hurt his shin Tuesday and his status for the postseason is up in the air. These kinds of breaks help determine series winners and are why they're slotted second on our priorities list.
Record vs. Phillies: 6-1
Likely starting pitchers: Shota Imanaga (11-10, 3.74 ERA), Clay Holmes (2-4, 4.26 ERA), Matthew Boyd (9-8, 4.06 ERA)
The path: The Cubs and Phillies would play in a 4-5 match up, with Philly needing to have at least one more win than the Cubs do at the end of the season due to their losing a tiebreaker if they want to host this match up.
The Skinny: The Phillies got totally trounced in their seven regular season games against Chicago, outscored by 22 runs. However, they were a totally different team then. All six losses they had against the Cubs came during a 10-game losing streak in April that led to the firing of Rob Thomson — an event that seems like lifetimes ago now.
Throwing that out the door, the simple numbers from the Cubs' offense are the reason why Philly wants to avoid them if at all possible — or at least face them at home. Pete Crow-Armstrong is nearing a rare 10 WAR season and will be the NL MVP. He's flanked in the lineup by four other 20-HR hitters (plus Dansby Swanson, who has 19).
SIGN UP HERE to receive the PhillyVoice Sports newsletter
Follow Evan on Twitter:@evan_macy
Like us on Facebook: PhillyVoice Sports
