September 18, 2024
Jeff Hanisch/Imagn Images
Phillies ace Zack Wheeler continues to look unhittable as October nears.
After a thrilling series victory over the New York Mets that included two comeback victories and plenty of unsung heroes, the Phillies headed to Milwaukee for a critical three-game set against the first-place Brewers in hopes of nearing a division crown and solidifying their chances of earning a first-round bye in October.
In the series opener on Monday, some shaky Phillies pitching combined with scarce offensive production resulted in a 6-2 loss, but they rebounded with a decisive 5-1 victory on Tuesday before falling in Wednesday's series finale, 2-1, after a brutal offensive showing led to a Brewers walk-off hit.
Here is what stood out from this series between two teams preparing for October baseball:
Monday's start was a major one for Suárez, who since returning from his second injured list stint of the season had yet to pair sharp stuff and his typical velocity with precise command. Suárez dazzled early, but eventually ran into some trouble, allowing a trio of runs over five innings of work.
In Suárez's first 15 starts of the season, he looked like as strong of a contender for the NL Cy Young Award as any other pitcher. He posted a 1.75 ERA across 92.1 innings pitched during that span. In 10 starts since, Suárez's ERA is 5.61 with opposing hitters batting .305 against the Phillies' southpaw.
On the bright side, Suárez was able to shake off a brief injury scare on a play when he stumbled off the pitcher's mound in the fourth inning and landed on his wrist and then notch an inning-ending strikeout, before coming out and throwing another clean inning to wrap up his day. He also topped 100 pitches for the first time since May.
Suárez was not bad against the Brewers, but with only two starts left for him to make before October, it is hard to imagine the Phillies having the same level of trust in him that they have in the last two postseasons, in which he has been excellent as both a starter and reliever. At this point, he seems destined for a fourth starter role in October with a decent chance of sporadic relief opportunities.
Wheeler, on the other hand, has earned more trust than any starting pitcher in baseball. What he does every fifth day is entirely predictable, yet oftentimes jaw-dropping. Wheeler made his 30th start of 2024 on Tuesday night, and for the 25th time this season, he allowed two or fewer earned runs. His line — seven innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts, while only allowing four hits and not walking a single batter — was impressive. But how he did it was even more terrifying for opposing hitters: power, power and more power.
Of Wheeler's 99 pitches, 76 were either four-seam fastballs or sinkers, according to Baseball Savant. To take complete ownership of a first-place club's lineup to the degree he did with just heaters is a massive testament to the ride and accuracy he has on those pitches.
What makes this so ominous for the lineups that will face Wheeler moving forward is that his secondary pitches are also elite. Wheeler already had an excellent cutter, sweeper and cutter, then began throwing an extremely effective splitter this season just to show hitters another look.
Zack Wheeler, Wicked 87mph Sweeper .🤢 pic.twitter.com/ZAuwLwKjTl
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 18, 2024
Exactly 193 batters have faced Wheeler three times exactly over the course of a game; those hitters are slashing a combined .184/.259/.339 in their third plate appearances against Wheeler. That level of success late in games is preposterous.
Wheeler has a 2.56 ERA over 186.2 innings pitched in 2024, and he just keeps on getting better. There is no pitcher in the sport the Phillies would rather have on the mound for their first ballgame in October, and they should feel that way. The pitcher Wheeler has become since arriving in Philadelphia is nothing short of phenomenal.
At the plate, the most noteworthy swing came from Bryce Harper, who thought he had hit a routine fly ball before watching the ball sail over the wall in left-center field for a go-ahead, two-run shot in the sixth inning.
Bryce Harper was mad because he thought he flew out, when actually he hit a 394-foot go-ahead homer. 😂pic.twitter.com/5cEvx7VxrH
— Phillies Nation (@PhilliesNation) September 18, 2024
Harper just might be finding his peak form right before October, a delightful development for the Phillies.
Nola was on the mound for the Phillies in Wednesday's series finale, and he took the ball very much in need of a quality outing after a pair of disastrous starts. Nola failed to escape the fifth inning in either of his last two appearances, allowing 10 earned runs and 15 hits across starts against the Marlins and Mets.
In a big start, Nola was terrific. He tossed seven innings, only allowing one run on three hits. He struck out nine batters and only walked one, throwing 97 pitches (61 strikes), lowering his season-long ERA to 3.54 in the process.
The Phillies got on the board first in this one thanks to Alec Bohm's first home run since returning to the active roster on Sunday. Bohm went down to get a slider and smoked it to deep left-center for a solo shot in the second inning:
Bohmerrrrrrr#RingTheBell pic.twitter.com/2n4uhEU6fc
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) September 19, 2024
If Bohm can put together a string of quality performances and Nick Castellanos continues to struggle, Phillies manager Rob Thomson could consider moving Bohm back up to the clean-up spot with Castellanos sliding down to the five-hole. Thomson said that Bohm was hitting fifth upon returning because he wanted to keep Castellanos in a spot where he was swinging the bat well, but Castellanos has been slumping for just about the entirety of his time batting fourth.
The only run Nola did surrender, though, came on a solo homer from old friend Rhys Hoskins. Across six games between the Phillies and Brewers this season, Milwaukee hit two home runs: one from Hoskins against Wheeler in his first game back in Philadelphia, and his blast against Nola on Wednesday night.
With the Phillies' offense struggling and Nola dominating, Hoskins' solo shot was enough to keep the game tied, 1-1, headed into bottom of the ninth inning. Phillies closer Carlos Estévez entered the game, and the first batter he faced was the phenomenal 20-year-old rookie Jackson Chourio, who laced a triple to the right field corner. A few batters later, Brewers designated hitter Jake Bauers smoked a walk-off hit to give Milwaukee a series victory.
Up next: The Phillies will now head to New York for four pivotal contests against the Mets, with the ability to clinch a first-place finish in National League East for the first time since 2011 if they win two games in Queens. The Mets have plenty to play for, too, as they look to outlast the Atlanta Braves for a Wild Card spot.
Taijuan Walker will return to the starting rotation for Thursday's series opener, and he will be followed by Cristopher Sánchez on Friday, with Suárez and Wheeler set to start over the weekend.
Follow Adam on Twitter: @SixersAdam
Follow PhillyVoice on Twitter: @thephillyvoice
