April 30, 2026
Bill Streicher/Imagn Images
It's been an inconsistent start for Phillies ace Cris Sánchez this season.
There is an excessive list of reasons why the Phillies have one of the worst records in baseball and are off to their worst start in decades.
But any list would have the Phillies' starting pitching near the top.
From the best unit in the majors by most statistical categories in 2025, leading to 96 wins, to what is essentially the absolute worst, the Phillies have been trailing for most of the season — and often quickly. Entering Thursday the staff's 5.52 ERA was the second highest in the majors, as was their 1.572 WHIP.
Still, last season's success and a proven track record for the top four arms in the rotation has to instill confidence that the rule of averages will return the starting rotation to reliable. Right?
With the Phils leaning on a bullpen-led approach in the second game of their doubleheader against the Giants, it seems like a good time to ask the question: Who do you trust in this rotation right now?
We've given each of the current five starters a rating from 1-10, one being — send them down, they're a train wreck, and 10 being an automatic shutout every time they take the mound. Here's our current level of confidence in each arm:
It was pretty remarkable to see Sánchez take his confident, lumbering walk back to the pitcher's mound to start the seventh inning on Thursday against the Giants. In his first frame, the Phillies' ace surrendered back-to-back doubles and eventually two runs. But he shook off the early jitters. A shaky fifth inning also threatened Sánchez' afternoon, when he had a two-on jam (with a 3-0 count to Casey Schmidt). He wiggled out of it, too. Before anyone knew it, he had retired the first two batters in the seventh, handing the ball off to Orion Kerkering to face a right-handed Giants hitter (who he handled no problem).
After his latest outing, Sánchez has gone 18 straight home starts with two or less earned runs and at least five innings pitched. His consistency has been remarkable. Yes, he's been a step short of dominant this season, but every time Sánchez is handed the baseball he's going to give the Phillies their best chance to win. Even on a bad day he's the team's best pitcher. He showed that by bending and not breaking Thursday.
In the first game of the post-Rob Thomson era Tuesday night, Luzardo tossed an absolute gem. With plenty of juice left after throwing seven scoreless innings, new manager Don Mattingly still went to the bullpen in the eighth. Luzardo only allowed two baserunners, walked none and struck out eight. Last year the Phils led the league in seven-plus inning starts (39). Luzardo gave the Phillies their first one of the year in Game 29.
The win, his second of the season, also comes on the heels of a good (not great) outing in Chicago a week before, where he worked around four walks to hold the Cubs to just one earned run. His two prior starts (to his two most recent starts) had allowed a combined 17 hits and 14 runs. So he's trending in the right direction and starting to build some momentum.
Wheeler gets a seven based on his reputation alone. The perennial Cy Young finalist made a remarkable return from Thoracic Outlet surgery last week in Atlanta, nearly single-handedly (along with four RBI from Bryce Harper) ending the team's 10-game losing streak. He pitched well in his return, hitting 96 MPH with his fastball over five two-run innings.
We'll learn a lot more about where Wheeler really is as the season progresses. He'll pitch for a second time this weekend in Miami and health permitting, every fifth day after that. A Wheeler who can pitch like an ace again is a huge upgrade over recently cut Taijuan Walker.
Painter has sort of been consistently okay this season, sporting a 5.25 ERA through his first five starts as a rookie. He's allowed three or fewer runs three times, with one outing apiece allowing four and five.
There are some encouraging signs from the young flame-thrower. He's shown he can handle a heavy load, venturing comfortably over the 90-pitch threshold. He also has a very good strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.50) so far. He's adjusting to being a pro and these early growing pains are nothing to be worried about.
Nola has been in a pretty bad funk after getting off to a promising start. In Atlanta on Sunday the veteran allowed six runs in a 6-2 loss to the Braves. In his start before that one, he allowed five runs in a 5-1 loss to the Cubs.
The longest tenured Phillie hasn't really looked like himself since his brutally bad 17-start campaign in 2025, where he had a 6.01 ERA. Until he shows any sort of consistency he'll have a pretty low confidence meter, even with some of his fellow rotation-mates struggling too.
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