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September 07, 2018

Sports betting with 'The Philly Godfather': Take the Browns and Bears to cover in Week 1

NFL Betting Odds
0907_Baker_Mayfield_USAT Tim Fuller /USA Today Sports

Will the Browns hold their own against the Steelers in Week 1?

Each Friday for PhillyVoice, Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro and college football games this weekend. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio and has his own website, www.thephillygodfather.com.

Week 1 NFL

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m. Sunday

The Line: Steelers minus-4/Total: 42.5

What is the line telling you: When the early numbers came out, the Steelers were minus-6.5, and since then, the sharp bettors, known as the “Wise Guys,” started to lay heavy bets down on the Browns. When the news came out about Le'Veon Bell not playing, it forced bookmakers in Vegas pus the lone down. It started at a 47 total, but pushed that down to 42.5.

Bottom line: The smart money likes the Browns plus-4.

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers, 4 p.m. Sunday

The Line: Chargers minus-3/Total: 48

What is the line telling you: We saw a slight move on the Chargers here, which forced bookmakers to move off that key number of three, to make Los Angeles a 3.5-point favorite. But the bigger move, in my opinion, is on the over. The fact that Joey Bosa (the Chargers’ all-Pro defensive end) probably won’t be playing. He accounted for 29-percent of the Chargers’ 42 sacks last year. Without Bosa, the Chargers’ numbers drop off dramatically. Add to the fact that Kansas City ranked No. 26 in pass rush and 30th in overall defensive efficiency last year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the line move higher in total. The total could reach 50 by kickoff.

Bottom line: The smart money likes the over at 48.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers, 8:20 p.m. Sunday

The Line: Packers minus-7.5/Total: 48

What is the line telling you: The Vegas books opened with the Packers being an eight-point favorite at home. Since then, we’ve seen sharp money trickle down on the Bears, after the announcement that the Bears got (Raiders’ all-Pro defensive end) Khalil Mack (in a trade). The line quickly went down to seven. There are still some 7.5 spread out there, which the sharp money took early. You want to grab that, because seven is the second key number.

Bottom line: The smart money took the Bears at plus-7.5.

Week 2 College Football

No. 3 Georgia at No. 24 South Carolina, 3:30 p.m. Saturday

The Line: Georgia minus-9/Total: 51

Bottom line: The smart money took Georgia minus-9 and the over is a big move.

Nevada at Vanderbilt, 12:00 p.m. Saturday

The Line: Vanderbilt minus-10/Total: 61.5

Bottom line: The smart money took Nevada plus-10.


Old Dominion minus-1 vs. Florida International 

Kentucky plus-14 vs. Florida Kansas St. plus-8 

Mississippi State Ball State plus-35 vs. Notre Dame


(Betting lines are subject to change.)


The Philly Godfather can be followed on twitter @Phillygodfather & his website is www.thephillygodfather.com.