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September 28, 2018

Sports betting with 'The Philly Godfather': Smart money is on Raiders, other Week 4 bets

Betting Odds NFL
092818_Henry-Titans_usat Douglas DeFelice/USA TODAY Sports

Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry.

Each Friday for PhillyVoice, Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro and college football games this weekend. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio and has his own website, www.thephillygodfather.com

Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m. Sunday

Games 265 & 266 on the sports betting screen

The Line: Eagles -3.5 | Total: 41.5 | Halftime Total: 21

What is the line telling you: The Eagles opened as a three-point favorite with a 42 total. When we look at these teams, we quickly identify two struggling offensive squads. The Eagles are ranked 24th in passing efficiency and the Titans come in at 26th. Both teams are also struggling putting up points on the board, as the Eagles average just under 20 points per game (19.7), while Tennessee is averaging 16.7. When we look at the strongest metric, good or bad, how these offenses really are, it’s yards per play. The Eagles and Titans come in ranked as the third-worst in the NFL, each averaging 4.7 yards per play. The sharp money evaluated all of the metrics, immediately triggering a buy order of under 21 in the first half, and if there’s any weather, both of these teams will struggle to put together over 40 points. There was no sharp money yet on a side, but there is expected some late Titans money. They’re expecting a field goal game.

Bottom line: The smart money likes under 41.5 and the under 21 for the half.

Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons, 1:00 p.m. Sunday

Games 255 & 256 on the sports betting screen

The Line: Falcons -4 | Total: 53

What is the line telling you: The Falcons opened at minus-5.5. Both teams are really banged up on defense. The total started at 48, which had the sharp money jumping on and that shot up as high as 5 and 4.5 on some books. The sharp money bought up the plus-5 and plus-4.5 and it’s settled around 3.5 and 4. The sharp money buried the over and nibbled a little on the Bengals’ side.

Bottom line: The smart money likes the Bengals plus-4 and a huge move on the over.

Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders, 4:05 p.m. Sunday

Games 269 & 270 on the sports betting screen

The Line: Raiders -2.5 | Total: 45

What is the line telling you: This started as a pick’em. The sharp money jumped on the Raiders, and the game adjusted and it went from a 43 total to a 45 total. Oakland is winless, but the combined record of the teams that they’ve played is 8-1. The Browns are in a tough spot here. The Raiders are a real hungry team.

Bottom line: The smart money likes the Raiders minus-2.5.

College games

• Penn State plus-3 & the over 69 vs. Ohio State | Games 161-162

• Syracuse-Clemson over 65.5 | Games 129-130

• Virginia Tech-Duke over 50 | Games 133-134


The Philly Godfather can be followed on Twitter: @Phillygodfather.  

Visit his website: thephillygodfather.com.

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