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October 12, 2018

Sports betting with 'The Philly Godfather': Take your chances on the Ravens and Broncos in Week 6

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1012_Joe_Flacco_USAT Ken Blaze/USA Today Sports

Joe Flacco and the Ravens face the Titans in Week 6.

Each Friday for PhillyVoice, Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro and college football games this weekend. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio and has his own website, www.thephillygodfather.com.

NFL Week 6

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans, 4:25 p.m. Sunday

(Games 273 & 274 on the sports betting screen)

The Line: Titans minus-2.5/Total: 42

What is the line telling you: The oddsmakers and offshore books opened with the Titans being a pick’em. We immediately saw the wise guys attack the soft early betting limits. The overall money wager has been a 50-50 split. The Ravens have a little revenge on their minds after losing to the Titans last year, even after out-gaining the Titans by 84 yards. They have identical 3-2 records going into this matchup. Looking at the point differential, the Titans are a plus-1, while the Ravens come into this game with the largest point differential in the AFC (plus-55) and the second-best behind the Los Angeles Rams (plus-75). Looking at the metrics, the Ravens rank eight spots higher in overall defensive efficiency and 21 spots higher in defending the run and rank first in the league in opponent-yards-per-play. The Ravens have only given up nine points in the fourth quarter all year. On the offensive side, both teams are having problems moving the ball. Ravens come in ranked 27th and the Titans 29th in yards-per-play.

Bottom line: The smart money likes the Ravens plus-3 or better and the under.

Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos, 4:05 p.m. Sunday

(Games 269 & 270 on the sports betting screen)

The Line: Rams minus-7/Total: 52

What is the line telling you: Oddsmakers and offshore books opened with the Rams being a 7-point road favorite with a combined total of 53. The oddsmakers and Vegas sportsbooks have been unwilling to come off that key number of seven. The early market reports are showing a ton of love for the Rams, who started off the season 3-0 vs. the Vegas spread. Since then, the market seems to have caught up to them. They got a push against the Vikings and almost lost outright as a 7-point favorite to Seattle. Vegas is beginning to get a pulse on how good this team really is. They were undervalued going into the season, and now Vegas has pretty much pegged them. Most pro bettors like this game at 4, 4.5 points, which tells you the oddsmakers are making the recreational bettor pay a premium on an inflated price. The Rams have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL, ranked 25th in sack rate, Denver’s offense which is Top 10 in yards-per-play, can keep up with the Rams at home. 

Bottom line: The smart money likes the Broncos plus-7.

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots, 8:20 p.m. Sunday

(Games 275 & 276 on the sports betting screen)

The Line: Patriots minus-3.5/Total: 60

What is the line telling you: The oddsmakers and offshore opened this line as the Patriots being a 3-point favorite. The total currently sits at 60. Kansas City is 5-0 vs. the spread. The early market reports had 60-percent of the money being placed on Kansas City. Most of the recreational money is on Kansas City, but the sharp money and offshore bigger bets like the Patriots. Anytime you see that, you have to be really leery. Usually, the market catches up to teams like Kansas City.

Bottom line: The smart money likes the Patriots minus-3.5 and the under. Wait until game time to bet the under.

College Week 7

Pittsburgh plus-21.5 over Notre Dame (Games 153-154)

USC minus-7 over Colorado (155-156)

Georgia minus-7 over LSU (197-198)

NBA futures

76ers over & under wins this season

The Line: The 76ers are at 53.5 wins.

Bottom line: The smart money likes the under.

(Betting lines are subject to change.)


The Philly Godfather can be followed on twitter @Phillygodfather & his website is www.thephillygodfather.com.


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