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February 13, 2022

Super Bowl LVI pick

Eagles NFL
021322AaronDonald Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports

It could be a long day for the Bengals trying to block Aaron Donald.

The bad news for Philadelphia Eagles fans is that the Birds are not participating in the Super Bowl this year, as expected. The good news is that other objectionable teams to Philly fans — like the Dallas Cowboys — aren't either. Instead, it's an unexpected matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Los Angeles Rams.

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Joe Burrow has very quickly proven to be worth his No. 1 overall draft pick status, as he has stepped right into the NFL with a swagger and confidence that led the Bengals to their first playoff win since the 1990 season, when they took care of business at home against the Las Vegas Raiders. A pair of nail-biters later against the No. 1 seed Tennessee Titans and the juggernaut Kansas City Chiefs, and the Bengals find themselves back in the Super Bowl for the first time since the 1988 season.

The Bengals are such a fun team to watch. Burrow has an exceptional group of skill position players surrounding him in wide receivers Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd, to go along with running back Joe Mixon and underrated tight end C.J. Uzomah.

However, Burrow has also had to run for his life while trying to distribute the ball to his talented targets, as the Bengals allowed 55 sacks during the regular season, and 12 so far in the postseason.

The Rams have some recognizable faces on the offensive side of the ball with Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Odell Beckham, but the strength of their roster is their defense, most notably Aaron Donald on the interior, Von Miller on the edge, and Jalen Ramsey typically limiting the opposing team's best receiver.

Donald and Miller present a really difficult matchup for the Bengals in pass protection. The Bengals simply couldn't block guys like Jeffery Simmons and Harold Landry when they faced the Titans in the divisional round game, and they're highly likely to struggle against the Rams' front.

The difference between the Rams and the Titans, however, is that the Rams aren't likely to turn it over three times and only put 16 points on the board. They have a very good offense of their own, led by Kupp, who now has an absurd 2,333 receiving yards this season, playoffs included. Not to mention, after a shaky stretch of games to close the regular season, Stafford found the right time to get hot, as he has completed 72 percent of his passes in the playoffs for 9.1 yards per attempt, and 6 TDs vs. 1 INT.

The Bengals are the more fun story, but the Rams have a more complete team.

Depending on where you look, the line for this game is Rams (-4) or (-4.5). While I think the Rams will be Super Bowl champions later today, I do like the Bengals getting 4.5 points, so let's go ahead and make that my pick.


• Picks against the spread: Bengals (+4.5).

• Eagles picks: 13-5

• 2021 season, straight up: 178-105-1 (0.629)
• 2021 season, ATS: 45-40-1 (0.529)
• 2020 season, straight up: 169-81-1 (0.675)
• 2020 season, ATS: 45-37-3 (0.547)
• 2019 season, straight up: 160-107-1 (0.601)
• 2019 season, ATS: 42-35-3 (0.544)
• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)
• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS:  41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)

• Last 7 years, ATS: 296-244-13 (0.547)


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