February 09, 2022
The Super Bowl provides a ton of betting opportunities from the game and total, all the way down to smaller market player props. It’s also the heaviest – or right at the top – bet sporting event all year. That means people who have never placed a wager before, or maybe only dabble a couple of times a year, are betting and messing up the public markets. The easiest thing you can do if you are brand new to betting – or simply want to add some extra excitement to your party – is to take a side and/or total.
Beyond that, it’s truly about how much information you have in front of you and how much work you are willing to put into the bet. Hard work? This is supposed to be fun!
Don’t worry… I’ve done all the homework for you and provided five super-sized bets for you to play, from the reasonable to long shot, we have you covered for the big game!
(-110 at FanDuel)
The Rams are going to win this game. The issue always becomes further complicated when a spread is added, but 4 points shouldn’t be a deterrent to stay away from the Rams. You will hear a lot about 7, 3, and 10 being “key” numbers – because the majority (not overwhelming but still most) of games end with that margin of victory. That’s slowly shifted over the past two years as we see an increase in missed extra points and two-point conversions. Clearing that key number of 3 isn’t as difficult as it was even three or four years ago.
The Rams get to 20 points faster than any team over their last nine games, and the Bengals have an offensive line problem. This could be the worst offensive line to ever start a Super Bowl and we want to monetize that as much as possible. Expect LA to get up – as they have in nine straight games – and hold that lead with a menacing pass rush. Matthew Stafford should win the MVP and Joe Burrow goes home cigar-less. The Super Bowl is a different animal than every other game – including the playoffs. The Rams are built to win this, while the Bengals are here for the ride.
(-110 FanDuel)
Both teams have high-flying offenses that can get the ball down the field and put-up points. There are multiple receivers on either team that can take over the game – including the best WR in the NFL this year in Cooper Kupp, and the best rookie WR in Ja’marr Chase. But here we are with a total that’s below 50 points, combined with lower passing props for both quarterbacks. This is where the general consensus of a higher-scoring game will roast bettors come Sunday evening. This is a perfect opportunity right away to fade the public and go under 48.5 points.
Nobody likes to bet the under but they should like winning money. I get that it’s tough to root for no points – especially at a Super Bowl party – but in this case being unpopular means making money. The O/U is only 10-9 at SoFI Stadium this year, and the Bengals have played seven straight postseason games to the under. We also see players and coaches become tighter and take less risks in this game, which should also lead to less scoring drives. It would make sense that both sides would take time off the clock to keep the other offense off the field. Plus, both teams have backs they can feed to wear down the opposing fronts. It could easily be a huge day for Joe Mixon.
(-120 DraftKings)
This is one of the best bets on the entire card – shoutout to the PhillyGodFather for giving this one out on my Fox Sports Radio The Gambler show on Tuesday. The reality is no matter what happens with the Bengals on Sunday, Mixon isn’t out of the game plan. While the Bengals will look to establish him on the ground earlier in the game, he is always a part of the passing attack. He also doesn’t leave the field if the Bengals are down big in the second half and should be an integral part of any comeback – especially in the passing game.
Joe Burrow isn’t going to just launch the ball if his team is down in the second half, so expect some quick passes to Mixon to help alleviate pressure. Mixon has gone over this number in three-straight playoff games and has plenty of targets to go over it again. The key in taking any running back to go over his receiving yards is target share – or volume. Mixon has a minimum of three targets in five straight games, which shows how important he is in the passing attack.
(+105 DraftKings)
The Rams have one of the top defensive fronts the NFL has seen in years. Joe Burrow and the Bengals offensive line have some weird love-hate relationship. This is a perfect prop bet that plays off circumstance and game flow for the Super Bowl. We already have the Rams winning by at least four points in a lower scoring game. That means the Rams defense will be making stops and getting to Burrow – something we’ve seen most defenses able to do. If you expect the Bengals to be down at any point – furthering their need to throw the football – then this prop bet is for you.
Burrow went down nine times to the Titans front and was sacked at least three times in each of his final regular season games. Cincy barely protected him against weaker fronts like the Raiders and Chiefs. The Rams d-line already has an advantage with talent like Aaron Donald and Von Miller on the roster, but when we add a desperate Burrow needing to drop back even more – it gets ugly. Don’t expect the Rams to outduel the Bengals in any shootout, as this prop hitting the over will be one of the main reasons.
(+2500 FanDuel)
You know we couldn’t leave you without one tangible long shot that is worth a half-unit. This is somewhere between a lotto ticket and reasonable bet above, but there’s a place for the unknown or forgotten on our ticket. Most people watching the game probably can’t even pronounce this guy’s name, but Skowronek stepped up when LA was dealing with injuries. He can also get down the field rather quickly, and almost had this same play last time out in the NFC Championship Game.
He has the speed to get behind defenders and will be facing the least-talented defender every single time he’s on the field. Depending on the set – 5 wide – and he could be wide open once again deep-down field. His lone target last game was this exact bet, and the ball was just a little overthrown. Sean McVay may not even know this guy’s name, but all we need is one target for this thing to hit. Then everyone at your Super Bowl Party will forever link you to Ben Skowronek.
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