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November 22, 2018

Week 12 NFL picks

For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 12 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.


Bears (-3) at Lions: Mitchell Trubisky is listed as doubtful for this game, which means that Chase Daniel will likely get the start. I watched Daniel in training camp every day for a season, and can't in good conscience pick him to win a real game.


Redskins at Cowboys (-7): The Redskins are in big, big trouble with their starting quarterback and three-fifths of their offensive line missing. The Cowboys should be able to win this game easily, simply due to the Skins' attrition, but we've seen Jerry Jones' sourpuss face on many a Thanksgiving implosion.


Falcons at Saints (-12.5): The Saints look unbeatable at the moment, and they'll host a Falcons team on a short week that lost to two crap teams in a row in the Browns and Cowboys.


49ers at Buccaneers (-3.5): Ugh. Do I have to pick this game?


Patriots (-9.5) at Jets: The Jets are trying their hardest to be included in the "worst team in the NFL" discussion.


Giants at Eagles (-6): The Giants suck at football somewhat less than they did when the Eagles faced them Week 6 of the regular season, while the listless Eagles are coming off back-to-back embarrassing losses. Trying to decide which is worse of the Eagles' secondary and the Giants' offensive line is a fun exercise, and there's really no wrong answer. The Eagles should be able to exploit the Giants' OL like they usually do, while the Giants should be able to take advantage of the Eagles' practice squad-level corners with their good skill position players on offense.

This will be the 174th game between the Eagles and Giants. The Giants have always owned the head-to-head advantage in this matchup since Game 1, and it has mostly been lopsided in their favor. After the Eagles' recent ownership of the Giants, the all-time record in this series is now 86-85-2, Giants. So, yes, the Eagles can tie it up with a win Sunday night. #Math.

It's hard for me to pick against the Eagles in this matchup, given their dominance of the Giants, but the fact that the Eagles are favored by six points over anyone is laughable.


Raiders at Ravens (-10.5): The Raiders (and a bunch of other teams) are trying their damnedest to not get the No. 1 overall pick with meaningless wins. They won't be able to score on this Ravens defense though.


Jaguars (-3) at Bills: This is the worst rematch of a playoff game the previous season that I can remember.


Seahawks at Panthers (-3.5): If you read me often enough, you know that I think the Panthers are frauds. The 1:00 p.m. EST road game for a west coast team is bothersome from a betting perspective, but in my view, the Seahawks are just a better team.


Browns at Bengals (-3): I literally flipped coin.


Cardinals at Chargers (-12.5): The Cardinals are so bad they lost to the Raiders last week.


Dolphins at Colts (-8): For my money, Frank Reich should be the NFL Coach of the Year. What he has done with a bad roster this season is remarkable. Clearly the Eagles miss him, badly.


Steelers (-3) at Broncos: Home field advantage is really only an advantage when the home team is good, which the Broncos aren't. They've lost three straight games in Denver.


Packers at Vikings (-3.5): Why is this line only 3.5? While the Vikings are far from some dominant team, why does anyone still think this Packers team is good?


Titans at Texans (-6.5): I'm not touching a Titans game the rest of the season. That team is just too wildly unpredictable.

Byes: Chiefs, Rams.

• Picks against the spread: Lions (+3), Giants (+6), Seahawks (+3.5), Steelers (-3).

• Eagles picks: 5-5

• 2018 season, straight up 99-61-2 (0.617)
• 2018 season, ATS: 26-22-1 (.541)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS:  41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)

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