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September 21, 2018

Sports betting with 'The Philly Godfather': Smart money likes Colts, Patriots and more in Week 3

Eagles Betting Odds
092118_Luck-Colts_usat Thomas J. Russo/USA TODAY Sport, File

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck calls a play during a 2016 preseason game against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Each Friday for PhillyVoice, Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro and college football games this weekend. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio and has his own website, thephillygodfather.com.

Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m. Sunday

Games 461 & 462 on the sports betting screen

Line: Eagles -7 | Total: 47

What is the line telling you: Andrew Luck we know is coming to town and oddsmakers opened the line with the Eagles as a 6.5-point favorite. Carson Wentz is playing and the sports-betting market has reacted. Surprisingly, the total has been kissed down to 47. It will drop even lower by game time, which is an indicator the scoring output may be lower than expected. 

The sharp money is buying up the plus-7 on Andrew Luck and the Colts. The Eagles have some serious issues on offense. They’re grasping at draws on wide receivers. The wise guys feel it will take Wentz some time to get up to game speed. A big indicator of that is the total dropping. The Colts, on the other hand, have a healthy Andrew Luck. They went into Washington last week as six-point underdogs and won. They could very well be 2-0 if tight end Jack Doyle doesn’t fumble at the Bengals’ 15 with :36 to play in their opener.

Bottom line: The smart money likes the Colts plus-7 and the under at 47.

New England Patriots at Detroit Lions, 8:20 p.m. Sunday

Games 487 & 488 on the sports betting screen

Line: Patriots -7 | Total: 53.5

What is the line telling you: The Patriots opened as a 6.5-point favorite on the road against a really bad Detroit squad. The total was set at 50. Since then, we’ve seen no movement on a side, regardless of the fact that the Patriots, off a loss, have covered the spread 75-percent of the time during the Tom Brady-Bill Belichik era. The wise guys buried the over 50, which forced bookmakers to move the over to 53.5, where it sits. That total will continue to rise. 

Bottom line: The smart money buried the over and the Patriots plus-7, where the line is.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:15 p.m. Monday

Games 489 & 490 on the sports betting screen

Line: Steelers -1.5 | Total: 53.5

What is the line telling you: The Steelers are still winless. Las Vegas opened with Pittsburgh being a two-point favorite and the total was set at 50. Pinnacle, the sharpest sportsbook in the world, has Pittsburgh as a 1.5-point favorite and the total shot up to 53.5. That will continue to rise. We could see this close as high as 55 by kickoff, which would be a five-point move to the over. You’re dealing with two top-10 offenses and both defenses are horrible, ranked in the bottom half of the league in almost every defensive category. 

Bottom line: The smart money buried the over at 53.5.


RELATED: Jimmy Kempski's Week 3 NFL picks


College games

•  Minnesota plus-3 Maryland | Games 319-320
•  North Carolina plus-4 Pittsburgh | 329-330
•  Wake Forest plus-7.5 Notre Dame | 343-344 
•  Navy-SMU under 64 | 373-374 
•  New Mexico St.-UTEP under 50 | 393-394

(Betting lines are subject to change.)


The Philly Godfather can be followed on twitter @Phillygodfather & his website is www.thephillygodfather.com.

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