October 08, 2026
Eric Hartline/IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Trevor Lawrence leads an under-the-radar Super Bowl contender in the Jacksonville Jaguars.
For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 5 NFL picks. The team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Buccaneers at Cowboys (-8): As a reminder, the Bucs are starting an undrafted rookie quarterback in Jalon Daniels. They will also be without starting CB Benjamin Morrison and starting safety Antoine Winfield. The Cowboys are always going to move the football offensively, and the Bucs might be the first team the Cowboys' crappy defense can slow down so far this season. This game has blowout potential, but 8 points is still a little too rich for my blood.
Eagles vs. Jaguars (-7.5): Some sportsbooks have this line as high as Jaguars (-8). The Eagles haven't been underdogs to that degree since their miserable 2020 season. The 2026 Eagles are trending in that direction. They can't block anyone, they can't run it, and although their defense has been good at times, "good at times" falls well below preseason expectations. Oh, and they just lost Lane Johnson to retirement, they traded Cam Jurgens, and they have a laundry list of other significant injuries.
Meanwhile this Jaguars team is light on big-name players but they are well-coached, they score points, and they stop the run. They have the second-best point differential in the NFL at +51. If you're an Eagles fan traveling to London, I hope you have other additional fun things planned.
Colts at Steelers (-2.5): After a bad blowout loss Week 1 to the Ravens, the Colts have battled back with three straight good showings. They took the undefeated Chiefs to OT on the road, and then beat the Texans and Commanders.
I don't love that they traveled back from London this week, and now have to play on the road in their very next game. That seems kind of unfair. But, I like them more than this boring-ass Steelers team.
Vikings (-1.5) at Saints: The Vikings are pretty easy team to figure out. Bad offense, great defense. I like Brian Flores' chances of confusing second-year QB Tyler Shough. Also, this Saints defense is trash. This is maybe a team the Vikings can score against, finally?
Browns at Jets (-2.5): The Thursday Night Football crew's narrative that Deshaun Watson is some kind of redemption story was pretty sickening last week, and he didn't even play well in that game. But, he has played better than expected on the season, and the Browns have a bunch of good young players otherwise. I'm not sure why this very bad Jets team is favored here.
Bengals (-6.5) at Dolphins: The Dolphins' point totals so far this season: 13, 13, 10, 10. I trust that Joe Burrow can find a way to outscore them, even with Ja'Marr Chase (concussion) and Tee Higgins (groin, neck) both questionable to play.
Raiders at Patriots (-3.5): Every year there's a team that unexpectedly gets out to a fast start, and then ultimately finishes with a losing record. That's the Raiders this year.
Giants at Commanders (-3.5): The Giants are 3-1, but also pretty obviously a bad football team. And, well, so are the Commanders, who will very likely be getting starting quarterback Jayden Daniels from injury.
In my opinion, Daniels is a very overrated player, and has arguably not even been as good as QB2 Marcus Mariota since his spectacular rookie season. But he's a lot better than Jameis Winston.
Texans (-7.5) at Titans: There are five 0-4 teams heading into Week 5: The Dolphins, Chargers, Buccaneers, Texans, and Titans. Barring a tie, either the Texans or Titans will get their first win. 🥳🎉
That'll probably be the Texans, a popular preseason Super Bowl pick for some insane reason. They're not Super Bowl contenders, clearly, but they're at least a competent team.
Bears (-1.5) at Packers: I think that what the Bears have shown so far this season is that they are a very good team on both sides of the ball, and extraordinarily well coached, while the Packers are frauds. Laying 1.5 points feels like a nice bargain.
Broncos (-3.5) at Chargers: I've been pretty unimpressed by the Broncos this season. Conversely, although the Justin Herbert is wildly overrated and the Chargers are a loser organization, they feel due for their first win. All hunch here, no reasonable analysis.
49ers at Seahawks (-3): The Seahawks absolutely clobbered the Niners in a pair of late-season games in 2025. They beat them 13-3 Week 18 in a game that wasn't remotely that close, and then 41-6 in the playoffs. But when I look at what each of these teams are this season, the Niners have simply looked significantly better, and they do seem to be able to get revenge the following season after humiliating playoff losses. (Eagles fans reading this probably don't need an explanation on that point.)
Give me the Niners outright, and sure, I'll also take the three points.
Lions (-5.5) at Cardinals: The Cardinals are already done in early October, as usual. The Lions' defense can't stop anyone, but they can score points.
Ravens at Falcons (-3.5): A team that is so desperate for offensive line help that they traded a second round pick (!) for freaking Cam Jurgens is not the type of team I want to hitch my wagon to. Oh, and Lamar Jackson might not play.
I also kind of like this matchup for the Falcons, who are allowing an absurdly low 48.3 rushing yards per game. Obviously, the Ravens are a running team. Interesting matchup!
The Falcons are hot, and Bijan Robinson is looking like an MVP candidate. I would've picked Atlanta even if Jackson were likely to play.
Bills at Rams (-3): I don't know why the Rams are getting this type of respect. I get that they have a lot of big-name players and expectations are extraordinarily high, but they are not a better football team right now than the Bills.
BYE: Chiefs, Panthers.
Weekly disclaimer: Technically, I got knocked out Week 1. However, in the survivor pool I'm in you're allowed to buy back in if you get knocked out Week 1. With that in mind — and because "survivor pool" is in the headline and it would be weird for it to just not exist here all season — I'm just going to keep on going.
• Last 11 seasons, ATS: 458-385-22 (0.542)
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