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February 01, 2017

Eagles have far better draft success trading up than trading back

Heading into any draft, there are always arguments to be made about trying to trade up for a better prospect, trading back and acquiring more draft picks, or just staying put at your spot and picking a player.

The Eagles tend to move around in the first round more than most. A recap of the last 18 years (since the beginning of the Andy Reid era):

Green = Traded up | Blue = Stayed put | Red = Traded back

 YearPlayer drafted Traded up, traded back, or stayed put 
 2016Carson Wentz Traded up 
 2015Nelson Agholor Stayed put 
 2014Marcus Smith Traded back 
 2013Lane Johnson Stayed put 
 2012Fletcher Cox Traded up 
 2011Danny Watkins Stayed put 
 2010Brandon Graham Traded up 
 2009Jeremy Maclin Traded up 
 2008(Nobody in first round) - Trevor Laws first pick in 2nd round Traded back 
 2007(Nobody in first round) - Kevin Kolb first pick in 2nd roundTraded back 
 2006Brodrick Bunkley Stayed put 
 2005Mike Patterson Stayed put 
 2004Shawn Andrews Traded up 
 2003Jerome McDougle Traded up 
 2002Lito Sheppard Stayed put 
 2001Freddie Mitchell Stayed put 
 2000Corey Simon Stayed put 
 1999Donovan McNabb Stayed put 


The tale of the tape:

• Traded up (6 times): Jerome McDougle, Shawn Andrews, Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Graham, Fletcher Cox, and Carson Wentz.

  1. McDougle: The only bust of the trade up group, largely because he got shot.
  2. Andrews: Stud RG for a few years, then he got his Michael Phelps on.
  3. Maclin: Developed into a very good starting receiver, had 1300+ receiving yards the year before bolted for Kansas City in free agency.
  4. Graham: Highly criticized pick for years, but Graham is now one of the best players on the team.
  5. Cox: Star DT.
  6. Wentz: Looks a whole lot like the Eagles found their franchise quarterback.

• Traded back (3 times): Kevin Kolb, Trevor Laws, and Marcus Smith.

  1. Kolb: In his first game as "the guy," he was pummeled by Clay Matthews and lost his starting job to Michael Vick before being dealt to Arizona. The Eagles selected Kolb, Stewart Bradley, and C.J. Gaddis with the picks acquired from Dallas in that trade.
  2. Laws: 45 career tackles and five sacks in an underwhelming career. However, this trade netted Laws, Mike McGlynn, Quintin Demps, and Carolina's first-round pick in 2009, which the Eagles then traded along with a fourth-round pick and a sixth-round pick for Jason Peters. I'd say that trade worked out.
  3. Smith: By moving back four spots and selecting Smith, who is already a bust, the Eagles also drafted Jaylen Watkins and Taylor Hart.

• Stayed put (9 times): Donovan McNabb, Corey Simon, Freddie Mitchell, Lito Sheppard, Mike Patterson, Brodrick Bunkley, Danny Watkins, Lane Johnson, and Nelson Agholor.

  1. McNabb: Franchise QB for more than a decade.
  2. Simon: Impact player early in his career, declined rapidly at around 27.
  3. Mitchell: Made one huge play, talked like he was an All-Pro.
  4. Sheppard: Quality starting corner for years, although like Simon, he too declined rapidly at around 26.
  5. Patterson: Meat and potatoes guy on the interior of the defensive line. Decent career for a late 1.
  6. Bunkley: Imposing interior defender, did not live up to vast potential.
  7. Watkins: This was the stupidest pick the Eagles made over the last 20 years. He was freaking 26!
  8. Johnson: Great pick in a weak draft class.
  9. Agholor: Ugh.

By far, the best players are from the "trade up" group, and it's not even close.

"When we look back and we look at our drafts, specifically looking at where we were in the 20's, we've had some good success at 20 and higher," said Howie Roseman, speaking at the Senior Bowl. "I think there is a line where you don't get a difference maker. This is your opportunity, in the first round of the draft, to find a difference-making player. That's our first priority, is bringing in a difference maker to the Philadelphia Eagles. 

"By trading back and getting extra picks, but not having somebody who can affect the game... I mean, you're watching these championship games, and you're seeing that there are difference makers making big plays in these games, so we need to make sure that we come out of (the draft) with that."

It feels a lot like the Eagles will be trading up, not back, if at all.


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