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January 09, 2022

Which preseason over/under projections did the Eagles beat?

The Eagles clearly exceeded their projected win total, but did any individual players hit their numbers?

Eagles NFL
Offense_Hurts_Eagles_Giants_1226211_Kate_Frese66.jpg Kate Frese/for PhillyVoice

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts directs the offense during the game against the New York Giants.

No one really knew what to expect from the Eagles before the season started way back in September following an eventful offseason full of change.

With a rookie head coach, an unproven quarterback and a roster in flux, having a playoff spot sewn up with room to spare was really a pipe dream, one contemplated by only the most optimistic of fans. But alas, the Eagles found an identity as a run-first team — the best in the NFL in fact — and the stats from their stars reflect that.

With the regular season in the rearview, we thought it would be interesting to take a look at what the over/under numbers were from betting outlets prior to the season and how the players — and the team as a whole — wound up after the 17-game season. 

We'll start with the big one:

(The odds below, unless otherwise noted are from

Eagles wins 

Over/Under: 6.5
Actual total: 9

The Eagles (as you no doubt know as you are surely currently taking a break from looking at potential first-round matchups) slammed the over and left little doubt as they pummeled lesser quarterbacks and took advantage of one of the weakest schedules to end a season in recent memory. As far as their rivals go, the Cowboys had no trouble eclipsing their nine-win over/under while the Giants proved to be one of the biggest underachievers in the NFL, falling painfully short of the seven wins they were expected to earn.

Jalen Hurts passing yards 🚫

Over/Under: 3,700.5
Actual total: 3,144

Hurts probably would have been on pace to reach this relatively reasonable number (it's 218 yards per game over 17 games) but a combination of him missing two games and the Eagles becoming a run-first team in the second half of the year made it hard for him to pad his passing stats.

Jalen Hurts TD passes 🚫

Over/Under: 21
Actual total: 16

Even if you add together Hurts passing and rushing touchdowns, which was 26, you still get the under on his projected total touchdowns of 28. Some of this stems from their rushing offense being so damn good. They had the most attempts and most yards per game of any team in the NFL. Hurts was a game manager this season and many of his most spectacular throws didn't result in scores.

Jalen Hurts rushing yards, TDs 

Over/Under: 675.5, 7
Actual totals: 784, 10

Hurts led the Eagles in rushing yards and it was impressive to see. He led all QBs, though Lamar Jackson would have easily eclipsed him if he was just a little healthier. The QB set the team record for QB rushing scores, and his ability to use his legs helped many a fantasy team in 2021.

Jalen Hurts interceptions 

Over/Under: 12.5
Actual total: 9

Hurts was pretty good at protecting the football, turning the ball over only 11 times with his two lost fumbles. A lot of luck played into this as some mistakes were called back on penalties or dropped by opposing defenders, but the luck goes both ways. He gets a check because the under is a good thing here.

Miles Sanders rushing yards 🚫

Over/Under: 1000.5
Actual total: 754

Sanders played in only 12 games this season. His pace in the games he played was a 1,067 yard pace. When he was fed the football, he produced, but he was largely under utilized in the early weeks and suffered from a few injuries down the stretch. An interesting side note, Sanders also failed to score a touchdown this season, and his 912 total yards (including 158 receiving) were the most in the NFL this year without reaching the end zone.

DeVonta Smith receiving yards, TDs 

Over/Under: 775.5, 5
Actual totals: 916, 5

Smith was the breakout star of the Eagles passing offense, and if he had been targeted and involved more this year, he'd have probably had 1,000 yards easy. Still, his hands, his route running and his feet along the sidelines created highlight reel catches that won't soon be forgotten. He should be a prime candidate for more than 1,000 yards in Year 2. With 41 yards in Saturday's meaningless Week 18 game, Smith broke DeSean Jackson's team rookie receiving record. He tied his projected five touchdown total earlier this season.

Jalen Reagor receiving yards, TDs 🚫

Over/Under: 675.5, 4
Actual total: 299, 2

Reagor was a disappointment in 2021 and is looking like yet another first-round bust. We won't torture you by showing you Justin Jefferson's stats — but they were better.

Dallas Goedert receiving yards, TDs ✅/🚫

Over/Under: 725.5
Actual totals: 830, 4

Goedert has trended in the right direction as the team has played its way into the playoffs. In the first 11 games Goedert played this year he totaled 491 yards on 50 total targets. In his last four games he had 339 yards on 29 targets.

Fletcher Cox sacks 🚫

Over/Under: 6.5
Actual total: 3.5

Cox will probably not have too many optimistic projections left in his career as he is on the wrong side of 30 and in a bit of a decline. He was still a very effective interior lineman though down the stretch.

Nick Sirianni coaching props 

Nick Sirianni probably had a little bit of job security coming into a new gig with a lot of question marks surrounding it. Still, when the Eagles were at their lowest point, the rookie head coach was given a 10-1 chance of being the first coach fired (on October 27), a leap from his 50-1 odds to start 2021. But two and a half months later, he is now 10-1 to win the NFL's coach of the year award, boasting the fourth best odds behind Zac Taylor, Matt LaFleur and Mike Vrabel (via

BONUS: Carson Wentz passing yards, TD, INT 

Over/Under: 4,000.5, 26.5, 11.5
Actual totals: 3,378, 26, 8 (before kickoff in Week 18)

Wentz has, interestingly, found himself in a run-first offense behind a talented offensive line, just like his Eagles replacement Hurts has. He hasn't been asked to do a ton as he has handed the ball off to rushing leader and MVP candidate Jonathan Taylor and let him do most of the damage with the football. And as such, his TD and INT numbers are respectable. He did not reach his passing total (neither did Hurts) despite playing in every game this season (Hurts missed two).

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